TSLA Investor Discussions

[kenliles]

avatar, if you want to dig into it they did talk about cancellation rates on last quarter's call. Seeking Alpha has a transcript of the call. my recollection is the cancel rate was 10-15%, and on the call, Tesla management expressed their expectation it would be lower in the future (as the wait list is comprised of people who made a reservation months ago rather than years ago).

as you probably know right here on TMC is a thread where reservations are tallied. last I looked it suggested something like 21,000 net reservations, with a footnote explaining their calculation of net. I don't know if that number takes out from net reservations the 4,000 or so cars now delivered.

I believe it only nets out the announced shipments. If that's true, then we'd need to subtract last quarter shipment once announced, say 3000, so we'd be at 18000+ with 10 more months to add.



I hope smorg and citizen are right as I would like a pullback to add, but if the report validates the list I posted, I see little chance it doesn't close above its all time high over $40. Might pull back after that if the market corrects. That's the way I see it

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Looks like "buy the rumor sell the news" to me.

This.

I find it hard to believe the quarter will be as great as many of you are suggesting.

I think they will have eaten into some of the money they raised in Oct. I think the quarter as whole was not cash flow positive. I think reservations spiked up, but the whole year's production was not sold out as of 12/31/12 when considering current drop-out rates. I think it's still costing Tesla more than they want to produce cars (look at all the due bill items and people they're bringing on board and need to train), and I think making cars for Europe and Asia this year will incur some additional costs both at the factory and with setting up Delivery/Service overseas. Let's also not forget the cost of setting up SuperChargers.

I'm a huge Tesla bull, but let's get real, folks. The breathless optimism here is scaring me.

And this, especially.

Personally, I think Tesla has to have a few good quarters before we'll see a sustainable push. We might see some increases after the conference call, but on balance I'm expecting a pullback. There will be plenty of ammunition for the concern trolls to keep pushing stories about Tesla's terrible financials and inability to turn a profit.

 

[kenliles]

This.
Personally, I think Tesla has to have a few good quarters before we'll see a sustainable push. We might see some increases after the conference call, but on balance I'm expecting a pullback. There will be plenty of ammunition for the concern trolls to keep pushing stories about Tesla's terrible financials and inability to turn a profit.

That I agree with. I see a Tuesday deserving of all time highs, assuming report of discussed items and minimal use of new cash. Then pullback over the coming weeks, but establishing a higher low, in the 33-36 range. It's fun to be part of this over the next 5-10 years

 

[gregincal]

That seems high. Mine (before rebate) is $102k, and the only options I didn't get are the paint shield and jumpseats (I also got the "free" black paint...). Of course that's before the price increase, so maybe you were referring to after the price increase?



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Does anyone know if the earnings report is scheduled to be before or after the market opens on Monday?

Yes, after price increase, because I thought we were talking about revenue going forward. Not only extra $2500 base, but the 21 inch wheels are no longer included.

 

[Norbert]

That I agree with. I see a Tuesday deserving of all time highs, assuming report of discussed items and minimal use of new cash. Then pullback over the coming weeks, but establishing a higher low, in the 33-36 range. It's fun to be part of this over the next 5-10 years

It's been above $33 since some time in November. So I'd expect it to remain higher, if not significantly higher. It should become obvious that there have been significant steps forward, and not only for those who follow the forum chat. Of course, the stock market doesn't always make sense, so who knows.

 

[yngwie_2012]

it's been above $33 since some time in november. So i'd expect it to remain higher, if not significantly higher. It should become obvious that there have been significant steps forward, and not only for those who follow the forum chat. Of course, the stock market doesn't always make sense, so who knows.

new all time high!!! $40!!!

 

[carrerascott]

$40 is the new $39.95

 

[ppl]

Sorry to harp on this but have looked back and on oct 17 they had press release about earnings report in nov for 3rd qtr. there has NOT been a release about report on Monday. I do not believe we will hear results on Monday. If anyone has more information let me know. Market very much believes report on Monday will this be viewed as negative?

 

[FredTMC]

Sorry to harp on this but have looked back and on oct 17 they had press release about earnings report in nov for 3rd qtr. there has NOT been a release about report on Monday. I do not believe we will hear results on Monday. If anyone has more information let me know. Market very much believes report on Monday will this be viewed as negative?

all the financial outlets have 2/11 so in better darn well be on 2/11 (aka Monday). I agree with you that since there's a history of press releases about the upcoming earnings call, Mgmt should continue doing the press release announcement.

 

[Krugerrand]

all the financial outlets have 2/11 so in better darn well be on 2/11 (aka Monday). I agree with you that since there's a history of press releases about the upcoming earnings call, Mgmt should continue doing the press release announcement.

The day isn't over yet, so there still might be. But why 'should' they? Can't they decide to change historically what they do? What difference does it make one way or another? Other than to alleviate ppl's conspiracy theory. And even if ppl is correct and it doesn't happen on Monday...so what? Monday? Tuesday? Next Thursday? It'll happen when it happens. The news isn't going to change based on the date of the call. The news is already history and anyone who's been following Tesla knows what's coming.

 

[ppl]

The day isn't over yet, so there still might be. But why 'should' they? Can't they decide to change historically what they do? What difference does it make one way or another? Other than to alleviate ppl's conspiracy theory. And even if ppl is correct and it doesn't happen on Monday...so what? Monday? Tuesday? Next Thursday? It'll happen when it happens. The news isn't going to change based on the date of the call. The news is already history and anyone who's been following Tesla knows what's coming.

conspiracy theory? Where did you get that from? I agree so what which day other than you need to know when to tune in. You need to chill and stop looking for buggy men. Your first name isn't Freddy is it?

 

[Citizen-T]

It is pretty standard to have a press release officially announcing the date and time. The fact that they don't have one doesn't mean it isn't happening, but it is a little odd.

 

[gregincal]

all the financial outlets have 2/11 so in better darn well be on 2/11 (aka Monday).

Do they? I just checked. Neither Morningstar or Bloomberg list Tesla on their earnings calendar for monday. Wall Street Journal has Feb 11th - Feb 18th (estimated). Nasdaq has Feb 13th (estimated based on previous years). Google finance doesn't list a date. MSN lists 2/11 - 2/18. In fact the only place I see Feb 11th listed is Yahoo (not exactly a beacon of financial advice).

 

[smorgasbord]

I think it's worth a moment to re-read Tesla's Q3 2012 shareholder letter.

Our Q3 revenues were $50 million, an 88% increase from the prior quarter, which reflects ramping deliveries of Model S

And with Q4 having about 10X the number of cars sold, Q4 revenue should make the $400-400 Million estimate they made. That's good.

Gross margin for Q3 was negative 17%, in line with previous guidance, primarily because the cost of automotive sales reflects the full burden of operating our Tesla factory allocated over a limited number of vehicles produced, along with launch-related variable cost inefficiencies.

Automotive sales gross margin is expected to improve significantly in Q4 due to higher volumes and planned cost reductions.

I'm guessing that Gross Margin for the quarter is different than Automotive Sales Gross Margin, as the former includes everything, not just Model S sales.

Capital expenditures were about $69 million in Q3, as we continued to build out the Tesla Factory and made final tooling payments to suppliers of Model S components. Most of the remaining tooling payments are expected to be made in Q4 based on our supplier terms.

We remain on plan for about $240 million of capital expenditures for the year.

Has anyone totalled up the capital expenditures for Q1, Q2, and Q3 to see what's left from $240M for Q4?

Towards the end of the quarter, we expect to achieve positive free cash flow (cash flow from operations, inclusive of capital expenditures) in spite of short term cost inefficiencies.

Musk's tweet would indicate that they did that.

Note that they had a DoE payment in Dec, and have another one coming in March.

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conspiracy theory? Where did you get that from? I agree so what which day other than you need to know when to tune in.

If you want to talk conspiracy, then note that Petersen says Tesla is spending the time arguing with its auditors over not getting a "going concern" notice.

 

[avatar]

Do they? I just checked. Neither Morningstar or Bloomberg list Tesla on their earnings calendar for monday. Wall Street Journal has Feb 11th - Feb 18th (estimated). Nasdaq has Feb 13th (estimated based on previous years). Google finance doesn't list a date. MSN lists 2/11 - 2/18. In fact the only place I see Feb 11th listed is Yahoo (not exactly a beacon of financial advice).

Google finance clearly lists 2/11/13 as the TSLA earnings release date. However I am now seeing conflicting information across the interwebs.

Daily Finance shows it as 2/13 - Tesla Motors Quote Page (TSLA)

Nasdaq has it at 2/13 - Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report Date - NASDAQ.com

I suppose of these three NASDAQ is the most trustworthy. So lets go with 2/13.

 

[Norbert]

Do they? I just checked. Neither Morningstar or Bloomberg list Tesla on their earnings calendar for monday. Wall Street Journal has Feb 11th - Feb 18th (estimated). Nasdaq has Feb 13th (estimated based on previous years). Google finance doesn't list a date. MSN lists 2/11 - 2/18. In fact the only place I see Feb 11th listed is Yahoo (not exactly a beacon of financial advice).

Last year it was February 15th. The press release seems a bit late in any case, but just as a matter of a day or two.

 

[Krugerrand]

conspiracy theory? Where did you get that from? I agree so what which day other than you need to know when to tune in. You need to chill and stop looking for buggy men. Your first name isn't Freddy is it?

I'm laughing too hard to go back and quote you. Tx

 

[ppl]

I'm laughing too hard to go back and quote you. Tx

I erased from the message do you live on elm street. Thought that would be over the top

 

[Norbert]

Two articles on expectations for the Q4/annual report:

Tesla Motors' Model S Sales News Key In Q4 Earnings Report TSLA TM - Investors.com

While some sources have said Tesla would report on Monday, the company told IBD Friday that it had not yet confirmed a report date. It likely will report soon, in any case.

Here’s What to Expect When Tesla Reports Earnings | Wall St. Cheat Sheet

 

[Krugerrand]

I erased from the message do you live on elm street. Thought that would be over the top

You, over the top? Gosh, no. I could never imagine that.