-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
- Start date
-
- Tags
- investment market TSLA
- Status
Right now Tesla has about 1/2 year of 'full production' backlog. I imagine that they will try to make cars at about the rate they recieve reservations. And by the end of 2013 hopefully have about a 1-3 month backlog. I think they will try to keep a line, so they can force the 'build to order' strategy. With a few cars at each store, to demo them.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Or, perhaps, they will try just-in-time manufacturing. Such that they build to order very soon after the order.
Do you think they'll take the chance of an idle manufacturing plant if there's a downturn in sales? I think they'd be smart to operate with a 1-3 month backlog. That way they can accurately estimate production and if demand increases they can simply increase production to meet the demand.
I quit programming when OSs began running multiple simultaneous programs, and event-driven programming came in. I stopped at C and never moved to C++, which arrived shortly before I quit. I guess this was around 17 or 18 years ago???
I agree with you. But I don't think Tesla's certainty or your and my confidence will convince the markets. It's been a rocky road for Tesla, and lots of companies have made promises that never got fulfilled. Just yesterday someone on Prius Chat referred to the Model S as vaporware. I'd consider that person uninformed, to be polite about it, but until the car is actually on the roads, the market will see the delivery date announcement as "merely a promise."
Once the cars are rolling off the line, the market will take note.
Thank you for that. I was going to ask what was the point of a target price with no time line.
An intentional backlog has the advantage of aiding with production planning and helps create a sense that the car is in high demand, but has the disadvantage of losing the impulse buyers. Elon is a better businessman than I am (to put it mildly!) so whichever route he takes will probably be better for the company than the route I'd have taken.
Norbert
TSLA will win
It depends... and I'm no expert... small car manufacturers often have waiting times, however Tesla wants to "transition" to becoming a mass-manufacturer. In general it seems to be an advantage to be able to deliver quickly. Some people need/want a car as soon as they decide to buy one. I guess other advantages are that Tesla wants to serve the market to accelerate the development of electric cars, and perhaps also wants to build a market-segment position before established manufacturers start selling/announcing competing (or supposedly competing) products. Plus, the sooner the cars go to customers, the sooner there can be a domino effect. However I'm not saying that is necessarily the case, just seems possible.
I mentioned my car's arrival (likely late July/early August) and a buddy of mine made a remark like "what, in 2 years?". I sent the link to the blog post and he asked which # I was. When I told him, he said "well, what, they've sold 30ish? They probably started at 500 to make it look good". I told him I knew of some with lower numbers: "oh ok, they sold 4 then, 1, 17, 500, 532" -- basically, people won't believe it until they see it, and that's one reason I don't EVangelize.
I prefer to allow the "laugh now, cry later" thing to happen. Never fails. Phase 1: laugh at me for being a fool believing in something that seems crazy. Then phase 2: kicking themselves when that something comes to fruition and they miss the boat. In this case, likely "oh that's sweet, they're sold out until next year?!?!".
Citizen-T
Active Member
It is relevant only to those who for some reason think that people that buy $100k cars care about spending $4 vs $3.75 for gas. That said, there seems to be a lot of those people, so I guess the answer is it is very relevant.
I think we've got a long way to go before we decouple ourselves from the inverse oil trade.
In round numbers, a $0.10/gal increase in the price of gas improves the LCOE of the Model S vs. typical-ICE by about $500. This savings can either have the effect of increasing market share (and, yes, at the margin, car buyers do care about cost) or increasing Tesla's margin, or some combination thereof.
For those who doubt that gas prices matter about car selection, take a look at how sales of small cars vs. big cars reacts to gasoline price swings. People do react.
For those who doubt that gas prices matter about car selection, take a look at how sales of small cars vs. big cars reacts to gasoline price swings. People do react.
Not sure what $4 has to do with $3.75 for gas. The useful comparison is gas versus electricity.
Where I'm at, premium is about $4.30. The equivalent in kWh for the same distance in a Model S is about 30-35 cents, or about $15000 over the course of 100,000 miles. $15000 is a significant amount, even for people that can afford a luxury car.
I think what Citizen was trying to say was that the people who can afford a Model S and X react less to gass price fluctuations than most. To those that can afford the S, gas going from $3.75 to $4.00 probably won't be the main reason for purchasing the S. it will probably be one of many reasons, but probably not one of the most compelling.
However, the majority of the public buying "big cars" (I assume big engines) vs. small cars ranging from $20,000 to even $40,000 are going to be more susceptible to react to gas price fluctuations. I'd be interested if the study of big vs small cars in the $40,000 and up range show the same degree of swing as the $20,000 - $40,000 cars. I would doubt it, though.
And while the $15,000 is significant for those affording S and X's, it is not an immediate savings, rather 100,000 miles by 15,000 miles/year on average, you are talking $2250/year, or $190'ish/month. Again, for those affording S and X's, it's a factor, yes, but not one of the main one's.
However, the majority of the public buying "big cars" (I assume big engines) vs. small cars ranging from $20,000 to even $40,000 are going to be more susceptible to react to gas price fluctuations. I'd be interested if the study of big vs small cars in the $40,000 and up range show the same degree of swing as the $20,000 - $40,000 cars. I would doubt it, though.
And while the $15,000 is significant for those affording S and X's, it is not an immediate savings, rather 100,000 miles by 15,000 miles/year on average, you are talking $2250/year, or $190'ish/month. Again, for those affording S and X's, it's a factor, yes, but not one of the main one's.
That's what I was thinking. It's like cell phones: carriers subsidize the big upfront cost of phones by locking you into a 2-3 year contract. The value of the contract is worth more to them in the long term, and the customer doesn't see it as a huge amount because it's paid over time.
True, it'll matter a lot more to the Gen3 buyers a few years from now. Especially if Tesla can create a little "equivalent monthly expenses" app that shows the Gen3 versus an ICE. Something like:
Lease/payment = EV $X1, ICE X2
Fuel = $Y1, Y2
Total = $Z1, Z2
People will be able to quickly see the monthly expense for an EV is at least on par. They could do that now, but as you said, it's perhaps not as big a factor right now, particularly for the early adopters buying the more expensive 85kWh Model S.
Exactly. Because while I (and my family) REALLY want or could use the X, and I'm hoping to have myself in a position to get one down the line, if that doesn't happen, me and practically everyone I know will be really comparing monthly cost of ownership for the Gen3.
Back to main topic... TSLA dipping back to under $30 today. Is this the "newness" of the delivery announcements wearing off? Am going to be very interested in how prices react after those June and into July deliveries take place.
Back to main topic... TSLA dipping back to under $30 today. Is this the "newness" of the delivery announcements wearing off? Am going to be very interested in how prices react after those June and into July deliveries take place.
Originally Posted by Mile Erlic
How relevant is the price of gas to the success of Tesla? Is a de-coupling about to occur?
This is just wrong.
[*=left]Many people who buy expensive things are cheap.
[*=left]The car is $49,000 if desired. It's not a Roadster.
[*=left]Driving by a gas station is wonderful. When the price goes up it's even better.
[*=left]These cars have a high percentage of people buying way out of their normal pricing comfort zone and they are very aware of the price of gas and how it influences their decision to make the jump to electric.
[*=left]Regular gasoline in So Cal is $4.40
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
