TSLA Investor Discussions

[zack]

Anything that drives the public's attention away from oil and toward alternative energy is going to "fuel" an increase in TSLA's value. It sure is amazing that it's being suppressed this close to the Model S release date. If you'd asked me a month ago, I would have said that the window on buying opportunity was closing fast. Now my gut says it will be volatile until the last minute. I'm ready for anything to happen.

 

[daniel]

I think the market needs to see actual profits before the stock price will rise. Remember, stock price is just what investors are willing to pay. While I make no predictions, it would not surprise me to see the price remain where it is now, or even a bit lower, until the quarterly reports start showing solid earnings. People who are not "plugged in" to the whole EV scene still think of EVs as impractical, due to range limitations and battery cost and their own distrust of battery life.

 

[Citizen-T]

I disagree. Stock price is what investors are willing to pay for future earnings. Price should rise as investor confidence rises in Tesla's ability to earn $x.xx per share, long before they actually report such earnings.

 

[erha]

Test drives news came out today, but does anybody know how many test drives cars they have produced. Is it just one car? If they already have several cars produced, in addition to Elon's and the board of director's, that could impact the stock price

 

[mlascano]

Inside Tesla - 06.05.12 | Blog | Tesla Motors

Tesla Model S VIN #1

Now that deliveries have started and test drives have been announced shall we see a nice bump in stock price?

 

[NigelM]

Test drives news came out today, but does anybody know how many test drives cars they have produced. Is it just one car?

Some of the dates overlap which requires multiple cars. Tesla announced 5,000 test drives in those 33 days of events. So an average of 150 drives per day and say 15 minutes per drive with boarding and exiting, you'd need 5 cars to do that many drives in an 8 hour day (not counting charging time). OTOH, with the ability to move some cars around the locations (example in California) that'll cut the requirement back.....I'm guessing that they would need at least 20 cars to make the whole thing work.

 

[vfx]

Some of the dates overlap which requires multiple cars. Tesla announced 5,000 test drives in those 33 days of events. ....

45 days

 

[NigelM]

45 days

There are 33 days of test drives advertised.....spread out over 45 days. I take it that the time between events is taken moving cars around as otherwise there would be no need for end-of-event dates.

 

[vfx]

Ahh Well played Nigel. (say with a haughty British accent)

 

[Mile Erlic]

I guess I'm lucky since my wife is the perfect whole food, natural drink, ugg & lulu loving high end female consumer. I've seen it all. Tesla has never really been about CO2, enviornment and kwH/kg or miles/BTU etc... No, instead it's about having a trunk and a frunk, a cool touch screen and no visits to a stinky gas station. It's about no gears, no gas, a quiet ride, a great sound system and more than anything else - envy from the dear friends at private school who only have a Range Rover. You may see a few bumps, but TSLA will eventually sky-rocket. It's no favorite of Wall street now, but when it turns and the shorts run for the hills, this stock will go from 50% undervalued to 100% overvalued as wall street dumps oil for electricty. Have fun watching the price action! BTW stock price is a funny creature, for valuation I look at the 200 day MA. The daily price chart - speculation and technical trading.

 

[erha]

I read some people are estimating that more than 160 signature holders have dropped out already. And this is only after about 550 of the 1000 sig holders have been called. What do you guys think? If about 30% continue to cancel their reservations, this is not looking very good. I still think that a lot of people will order after the first cars roll out and some journalists get their hands on one. Hopefully people are just downgrading to Performance or standard version

 

[ckessel]

I read some people are estimating that more than 160 signature holders have dropped out already. And this is only after about 550 of the 1000 sig holders have been called. What do you guys think? If about 30% continue to cancel their reservations, this is not looking very good. I still think that a lot of people will order after the first cars roll out and some journalists get their hands on one. Hopefully people are just downgrading to Performance or standard version

It's being discussed in another thread, where myself and others have noted that a good chunk of the 160 probably dropped out for other reasons (some of those reservations are years old) and most probably downgraded rather than chose not to buy at all. I read the Tesla main forums as well and I think only once or twice have I seen someone completely drop their Sig and those were due to personal situations (one moved to a different country).

I am really curious what the P drop rate will be, but even my pessimistic nature doesn't really think you can extrapolate much from the Sig drop rate when thinking about the P drop rate.

 

[Citizen-T]

Yeah, I think it is reasonable that these early reservations have a high drop-out rate. Later sig reservation holders had a lot more info to make their decision with, no changes in options, or differences in price from what they expected are going to deter the later sig customers, then knew all that before they got in.

Also, from what I've seen, most sig holders have simply switched to a production performance model.

 

[NigelM]

I read some people are estimating that more than 160 signature holders have dropped out already.

Source?

 

[erha]

Source?

Just on the forum here, just like ckessel said. Sorry, don't remember which thread it was. I thought it would be interesting to discuss it in this thread as well, since no other threads talks about the stock price of the company

 

[ckessel]

Source?

You asked, and were answered, the exact same question in the other thread.

 

[NuclearPowered]

You have to consider there are probably a bunch of people on the fence in the positive. I will buy one but with production being sold out for a year, why put down $5k now when I can wait and possibly get a more refined version almost right away.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

 

[bonnie]

regarding the 160 number ... rumors and guesses have a way of becoming facts, with no hard facts to back up. We need to be careful to state that 160 is a guesstimate (or else give a source, as Nigel requested). Next thing you know, a major news source will be quoting that as a drop out rate. That would be unfortunate.

 

[ckessel]

regarding the 160 number ... rumors and guesses have a way of becoming facts, with no hard facts to back up. We need to be careful to state that 160 is a guesstimate (or else give a source, as Nigel requested). Next thing you know, a major news source will be quoting that as a drop out rate. That would be unfortunate.

Well, we have the Tally thread on the 160 numbers. We also throw out a lot of numbers in the forums (as is true with most forums) without citation, so consider how hard you want to enforce a "source required" change to the forums as that could get really problematic.

My complaint wasn't actually that Nigel asked for a source, it's that he asked a second time time here after he'd already been answered in the other thread.

 

[NigelM]

You asked, and were answered, the exact same question in the other thread.

Thanks, hadn't seen that as it was also recent. Fact is that the 160 is a guess based on unofficial numbers which themselves should be taken with a grain of salt. It could be much higher or much lower.

+1 Bonnie's comment.