NigelM
Recovering Member
TSLA remains a super-volatile stock which in turn means that there are some extreme reactions to good news, bad news and especially rumors either way.
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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Stock is getting hit because all the data from reservation holders shows there is no way we are getting to 5,000 units by the end of this year. Buying opportunity if you believe production will ramp fast enough so they don't need to raise more money.
*they could slow to almost half through Q2 2013 and still be fine on the balance sheet
@tander: No poll, please! My guess is:
(a) continued uncertainty in Europe, which depresses demand for Tesla in the EU and depresses the euro, making key rivals of the Model S potentially cheaper.
(b) continued concern about the pace of delivery and related car quality/cost concerns
(c) expectation of bigger-than-expected burn rates in Q2, with more-negative EPS than many analysts predicted.
(a) continued uncertainty in Europe, which depresses demand for Tesla in the EU and depresses the euro, making key rivals of the Model S potentially cheaper.
(b) continued concern about the pace of delivery and related car quality/cost concerns
(c) expectation of bigger-than-expected burn rates in Q2, with more-negative EPS than many analysts predicted.
Citizen-T
Active Member
The rumors about delays and that downgrade is what got us started, perfect excuse for more shorts to pile on and for longs to take profits. That was accelerated by the mess in Europe which has been weighing on the whole market. Right now it this is purely technical (in my opinion) we fell through our support level at the 200-day, so now gravity is pulling us down to the next level of support.
Unless there is some new bombshell on the earnings call tonight, I think we are very near the bottom of this move.
Shorts that own media outlets?
The test cars are pretty good. Polishing the inner details mentioned will make it pretty awesome.
I am doubtful that the factory won't be able to pump out consistent solid cars once all of the assembly techs are trained
(tried to sound a little like a journalist there)
The test cars are pretty good. Polishing the inner details mentioned will make it pretty awesome.
I am doubtful that the factory won't be able to pump out consistent solid cars once all of the assembly techs are trained
(tried to sound a little like a journalist there)
Steph
Member
Still down this morning.
Pretty amazing. These people are going to the slauther house and have no idea. Capitalism would not be the same without idiots.
Pretty amazing. These people are going to the slauther house and have no idea. Capitalism would not be the same without idiots.
The term "data" might imply harder facts than we have, but various Sig and R(oadster) folks are getting delivery times in November. If that's really the ramp up, it's hard to see how they'd hit 5k for the year in the time left since producing enough cars after that to hit 5k would put them above a 20k/year run rate.
Thanks, so I'm guessing these are people with pretty early reservations that expected to get delivery earlier. I'm very eager to hear what they have to say today...I could see how they can easily have slow 3Q production and still meet the yearly targets, but that info is a little concerning.
There are various possibilities that would work though. 20k/year was a sales target, not a production limitation. Maybe Tesla will temporarily run at a higher rate for a couple months. I'm not sure what the staffing implications are, but they may be able to do that. Or maybe, based on sales trends, they'll produce 25k/year and the ramp up assumes that. None of this is known or even rumored, I'm just saying there are scenarios where they could still reasonably hit 5k. There's just far less margin for error now on that number.
Steph
Member
I'm not even sure if he means that I am manipulating or being manipulated, I must be an idiot!
whats driving the stock down would appear to be the nasdaq overall is still relatively coupled
You mean the NASDAAPL?
indeed apple is altering this index in a big way!
Steph
Member
Elon has stated that by the end of Dec they will likely be running "at or above" the 20K/annum rate. I think there's way more flex available than is being taken into account. Simple version: run a Saturday shift. 20% output increase.
There's also the question of the length of the delivery pipeline. I.e., how long after a car leaves the line till it arrives on buyer's doorstep?
Mycroft
Life happens
Exactly. They will most likely have 5,000 customer cars built by the end of the year, but no way will they have 5,000 cars delivered.
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