Buy options. $23 Jan 2014 call options may be a bargain today around $8-9. If the stock is under $28-29 in January 2014, you start losing money fast until you lose everything if the stock ends under $23. But you double your investment if the stock hits $39-41 between now and January '14. And you are spending $8 per share, instead of $28.
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TSLA Investor Discussions
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Buy options. $23 Jan 2014 call options may be a bargain today around $8-9. If the stock is under $28-29 in January 2014, you start losing money fast until you lose everything if the stock ends under $23. But you double your investment if the stock hits $39-41 between now and January '14. And you are spending $8 per share, instead of $28.
I just picked some up at 27.62, partly due to chart technicals, and partly become I wish I could buy one of these cars.
I lurk on these forums a bit, because it seems like most of the negativity to this company is whether or not it can deliver sufficient quantity to keep floating. As far as I am concerned as long as the orders keep coming, that isn't the worst problem to have.
I lurk on these forums a bit, because it seems like most of the negativity to this company is whether or not it can deliver sufficient quantity to keep floating. As far as I am concerned as long as the orders keep coming, that isn't the worst problem to have.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
For anyone interested in the Chinese market prospects you could also see this article (What Percentage Of The 120M China EV Bike Owners Will Kandi Technologies Convert?), focused on low price (crap quality apparently) EV Kandi, but it does say a lot about the potential market in China. 120 million electric bicycles! If even the 1% of the 1% can afford a Tesla and want to get one there will be people lined up for years of current production capability. And just think about in a few years when the Gen III comes (lower price) and at the same time increased wealth among chinese... I'm getting giddy just thinking of what will happen when Tesla opens their first stores in Beijing, Shanghai etc. 
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
There are customer reports in the delivery thread about delays in expected deliveries. It's unclear if this is just natural blowback from earlier delays pushing things back by a week or an indication that Tesla has not moved far enough up from the 100 unit/week rate they had achieved by the beginning of the month. Realistically, to complete the Sigs in October they need to have already achieved (or ideally exceeded) something like 150 units/week.
If they have not we will start to see additional announcements of delayed deliveries over the next week or so.
If they have not we will start to see additional announcements of delayed deliveries over the next week or so.
It looks as if there may be some perceived delays due to some people getting in their configurations too late.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
earthling
Iam Notdesi
read this, it explains why the delays!
Model S Delivery Update - Page 157
In short - no trucks & parts not delivered
Good motley fool review!
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/10/13/the-motley-fools-weekly-editors-picks/?source=TheMotleyFool
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/10/13/the-motley-fools-weekly-editors-picks/?source=TheMotleyFool
Well my initial thoughts were to buy in once Tesla had revised its production numbers lower for the year. It seems the stock has more resilience than I thought it would even after they released the new lower production numbers for this year a few weeks ago. My stand now is that we are going to see even lower production numbers than the revised statement calls for. Once it becomes clear that Tesla will achieve less than 2000 vehicles for this year I believe the stock will fall substantially. I will buy in under $20. Of course this is all my personal opinion but $20 is my feel good number to buy into this stock.
Citizen-T
Active Member
That's not gonna happen. Even if they did only get 2000 out the door this year, they've raised enough cash now that it doesn't matter. The fear before was that they would run out if cash if they didn't sell enough cars.
I bought in at $19 shortly after the IPO when they had little more than a prototype and a business plan to justify their market cap. Nobody can convince me that if they only sell 1000 of the best cars in the country this year that they are only worth as much as they were back then.
Bardlebee
Member
Im new to investing, but I personally don't see it going under 20 dollars. I also have faith that they will make it to at least 3k deliveries. Unless I missed something somewhere.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I agree, $20 would be a huge drop and it just doesn't make sense. They have plenty of cash to extend the ramp up out a great deal. There would need to be other factors (like a major recall) needed to undercut the stock that much.
Besides, the premise just seems flawed. 2,000 vehicles for 2012 implies that Tesla has hit a wall and their current production is the best they can do. There is zero evidence of that, and plenty of evidence that they are improving production week by week while also improving build quality. The constraints that Tesla faces to increasing production are not physical constraints. They are process constraints, and there is every evidence that they are gradually being overcome as Tesla and their suppliers learn lessons and apply them in real time.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Possible bad scenario, Tesla misses the reduced numbers, and Romney wins the election. This double whammy might hit the stock price hard in the short term.
The continued slow ramp will hurt the stock ($20 would be unlikely but I could see $24.5). The reported delivery dates/vins have been very slow in the last few weeks supporting the theory that the line is no where near the 20K per yr mark, see:
Delivery Data
Total reported @TMC = 194 (10/13)
Form: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...U3NYM1pYR2c6MQ
Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...Ww5U3NYM1pYR2c
Google Docs by timdorr
Delivery Data
Total reported @TMC = 194 (10/13)
Form: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...U3NYM1pYR2c6MQ
Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...Ww5U3NYM1pYR2c
Google Docs by timdorr
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