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I suspect that's correlation rather than causation. Major pop centers, west coast centric that might have heard of Tesla, west cost is full of engineering types, etc. Just anecdotal, but while I'd heard of the Roadster I paid it little mind since it was, to my mind at the time, a 2-seater millionaire's toy. I'm not saying that mindset was correct, just that even for someone like me in tech that likes gadgets and is in an eco-aware state like Oregon, the Roadster still wasn't making inroads as a legitimate daily car.

I think it was the Leaf actually that made me aware of the Model S. I think I was talking to a buddy about the Leaf, but it was ugly and short range and he said Tesla's coming out with a sedan. Now, it's possible he was more aware of the Roadster and so perhaps my sale was Roadster generated in the seven degrees of Kevin Bacon sense.

Don't discount the number of hours/events that Roadster owners have put in giving out cases of Tesla brochures/talking about Tesla/introducing people to the Model S at EV events, schools, neighborhood events, test rides/drives, etc. I personally have three friends with Model S reservations and one with Model X - they wouldn't have made those reservations without my Tesla EVangelism. :) (And those are just the reservations I know about - I have no idea how many are from a result of the EVangelism.)

I am not saying it is because of Roadster owners, only saying Roadsters are part of the viral effect. We have not been quiet owners.

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Oops - forgetting my own Model X sig reservation! Driving a Roadster definitely made me want to go 100% electric. :)
 
Another personal anecdote about viral spreading of Model S. My wife, who is still skeptical about the whole EV thing, has talked to people about Tesla (I guess I am wearing off) and socializes in much much more affluent crowds than I do. And she has drummed up interest in at least two people who had 'heard' about Tesla, but are now actually looking at getting a car seriously.

I don't think I have any 'sales' yet. But I certainly have a quite a few potential sales out there. And most of my social circle a Tesla is probably slightly out of reach.
 
Each store open generates new sales.

Each new great car review contributes to sales. Multitudes of good reviews compound sales.


I rembember in the 70's when a band appeared on Satuday Night Live record producers noticed that sales of that band's album went of the next day by 10s of thousands. Go figure
 
Tesla needs to be gathering viral data when they receive reservations, not leaving it to TMC. They need to do their best to understand where these reservations are coming from. Where did the interest begin? Reading an article? Seeing one on the road or in a parking lot? Talking to a Tesla owner/reservist? Talking to a non-owner, but enthusiast? etc. They could come up with 5-10 rather simple questions to get a very good idea of the "viral effect".

And if TM is reading, my company could certainly help with that data and analysis. ;)
 
I suspect that's correlation rather than causation. Major pop centers, west coast centric that might have heard of Tesla, west cost is full of engineering types, etc.

Maybe; but there was also a story about a Tesla Ranger that had to take like two planes and a several hour car ride to service a Roadster out in the middle of nowhere. The only other Tesla anywhere nearby was directly across the street.

Only anecdotal, but that story is actually what got me to start developing this thesis.

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Each store open generates new sales.

Each new great car review contributes to sales. Multitudes of good reviews compound sales.

I rembember in the 70's when a band appeared on Satuday Night Live record producers noticed that sales of that band's album went of the next day by 10s of thousands. Go figure

Well no, a new store opening or a multitude of good reviews doesn't "compound" sales. It gives them a kick, but that is nothing like going viral. A new store will increase sales in that area, and sustain them, but it won't sell twice as many tomorrow as it did today, and twice as many as that the day after. Same with a review, when it first comes out it might give sales a kick, but that won't even be sustained much less compound.

A truly viral effect like what I'm talking about will accelerate (or "compound") until the market becomes too saturated.

10s of thousands of records is nice, but I can show you YouTube videos of cats playing the piano that racked up millions of views and never appeared on Saturday Night Live. We are talking completely different leagues here.
 
Maybe; but there was also a story about a Tesla Ranger that had to take like two planes and a several hour car ride to service a Roadster out in the middle of nowhere. The only other Tesla anywhere nearby was directly across the street.

Only anecdotal, but that story is actually what got me to start developing this thesis.

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Well no, a new store opening or a multitude of good reviews doesn't "compound" sales. It gives them a kick, but that is nothing like going viral. A new store will increase sales in that area, and sustain them, but it won't sell twice as many tomorrow as it did today, and twice as many as that the day after. Same with a review, when it first comes out it might give sales a kick, but that won't even be sustained much less compound.

A truly viral effect like what I'm talking about will accelerate (or "compound") until the market becomes too saturated.
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You are reading too much into my comments. I was just trying to point out key motivators for bumps in sales.

The use of the word compound was only directed at reviews. One review make make X sales and another review may make X sales but when you have many good reviews the sum is greater than simple addition of thoses X's.
 
You are reading too much into my comments. I was just trying to point out key motivators for bumps in sales.

The use of the word compound was only directed at reviews. One review make make X sales and another review may make X sales but when you have many good reviews the sum is greater than simple addition of thoses X's.

Fair enough. I'm a little more specific about what I mean by "compound". Agree that multiple good reviews would result in more sales than the additional of sales from each review individually, but I wouldn't call that compounding.
 
I don't want to get too hung up on one word, and mods are going to get on us soon, so one more comment then I'm done. =)

I don't necessarily mean a power of two. I do mean parabolic growth that you get from repeatedly applying some change to the result of the previous iteration. Look at "compounding interest" as a very common use of the term that I would agree with.

Certainly it is used much more loosely in common speech. I'd take issue with a lot of uses of "compounding the problem" where no compounding is actually taking place.

"First Bob hurt his hand, then Larry got thrown out of the game, compounding our troubles." - I see no compounding going on here. Amplified for sure, the loss of two key players is a bigger deal than the loss of either one individually x2.

"It started out as a harmless rumor, but each time it was told, it got a little worse (and further from the truth), compounding the issue." - Yep, definitely compounding going on here, good use of the term.

I'm a bit more intense about language than a lot of people though. I cringe every time I hear someone say "I could care less." They obviously meant to say "I couldn't care less." Another topic entirely, just saying, I'm more intense than most on this and I willfully concede that.
 
TSLA's Internet Sales Model Can Scale, Complemented by TSLA Stores

The issue with ‘store front’ sales is that the model doesn’t scale. That is, to a large extent, there is a linear relationship between stores and sales. Sales per square foot are, generally, a function of the location with desirable locations having more sales per square foot.

TSLA is using the Apple store model to increase sales per square foot, and using technology to increase the resulting sales per square foot even more. Consider a ‘traditional’ car dealership and think of their sales per square foot. Now, compare the TSLA stores and the small (relatively tiny) size and the corresponding sales per square foot.

Even under optimal circumstances, the sales per square foot only scales in a linear fashion.

Contrast the physical store sales, even with the TSLA model, to selling through the internet …

Someone sees a Model S through a personal acquaintance (or otherwise), then happens to get a ride or speak directly with an owner. They like the car and are curious. Those individuals just need to use a PC, iPad, smartphone, etc. to visit teslamotors.com and they can learn all about the vehicle. They can design their car, price it, know that the cost won’t vary by TSLA store, and put down a deposit on their credit card.

No line ups. No waiting. The web site handles plenty of simultaneous users.

In short, the internet ‘scales’.

Both models help each other. The TSLA stores are complementary to the internet, and the internet is complementary to the TSLA stores.

Viral marketing is the ‘icing on the cake’ that creates awareness, interest and the internet can handle the traffic to educate potential buyers and turn that interest into a reservation. Viral marketing is less effective with store fronts that don’t scale.
 
bmek (and others of course) - thank you for your insight.

There is one topic that hasn't resently been touched upon that I believe will be more important than many are thinking as of today: International (i.e. outside of North America) sales.

I believe that the markets in Europe as well as Asia are potentially much greater than many "US-centrics" understand.

Europe:
This is where I am and where I think I have to most insight. The total population of Europe is about twice that of the US (731 million). However, some of these are in poorer and less developed parts of Europa. Also, in Europe the number of cars per person is lower than in the US (America 812 vehicles/1000 people [only topped by Monaco] while in Europe: Germany 634/1000, Norway 578/1000, UK 525/100 for example). The more affluent and developed parts of Europe (Western-Northern) has about 421 million inhabitants (please, no offence to anyone, I included the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) which is more than the US and Canada together at 347 million people. Factors that speak in favor of high EV adoptance: These parts of Europe are technologically mature and densley populated, the eletric grid is robust, especially some parts of Europe have a lot of renewable electricity available, electricity is relatively cheap especially in comparison to petrol or diesel (which is relatively a lot more expensive than in the US). Also traditional ICE cars are generally more expensive here than in North America. A German living next door to the BMW, Audi or Mercedes factory will pay more for his german car than an American would. A Swede pays more for his Volvo than an American, etc. Some governments in Europe are doing more than others to promote EVs, with tax breaks and other stimuli, but in the countries where there is little of this as of today I think a lot may change in the coming years. Europe in general is taking on the responsibility to reduce CO2 emissions more whole-heartedly than the US, IMO, and I would not be surprised if in a few years there will be measures on the EU level to promote EVs (it's all about reaching "critical mass").

Asia
Consider China (this is also true for some of the "Tiger Economies" of south-eastern Asia): Population 1.35 billion people. In 2011 there were 83 motor vehicles per 1000 people. This number has been growing rapidly and China has an explosive growth of middle- and upper class. Let's say that for now just 1% of the population are in a position to even consider buying a car, still that's 13.5 million people who are looking to buy their first ever car. Next year it might be 2%, the year after 3% etc. Anyway, many of these are people do not have the "burden" of much experience with ICE cars. They don't have the brand affiliation og traditions of ICE cars. They are more "native". I believe they will be much more likely to buy an EV. Think of it this way: ff you had never seen a car before, never driven one before, knew nothing about combustion engines or eletric cars and you were presented with one of each, isn't it clear you would pick the EV? The modern chinese don't have to go through the same gradual technological switch we're seeing in the west - there aren't thousands of car dealerships, millions of gas stations (especially in more rural areas) etc. They can just make a quantum leap straight in to the future. They are expanding their electric grid very rapidly anyway. It seems the governement there has got it right - they understand that Chinas future growth will require a lof of management of CO2 emissions and other environmental effects, and they get the fact that if "the average chinese" is going to own his own car in just one or two generations, these cannot be ICEs, since that would be such a huge additional burden with reagards to emmisions. Yes, for now, a lot of electricity is generated in a dirty fashion (coal etc.) but given some time I believe China will be doing a gradual switch to sustainable energy.

To sum up: Don't underestimate demand and future markets outside of North America. As of now Tesla has no real domestic competition, but really no real competition from European or Asian automakers either!
 
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bmek;198773 There are certain expectations that TSLA has set said:
I agree. I would like to understand better the dates that the company and analysts are projecting for the milestones in the most recent grant of options to the CEO:

• Successful completion of the Model X Engineering Prototype (Alpha);

• Successful completion of the Model X Vehicle Prototype (Beta);

• Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle;

• Successful completion of the Gen III Engineering Prototype (Alpha);

• Successful completion of the Gen III Vehicle Prototype (Beta);

• Completion of the first Gen III Production Vehicle;

• Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;

• Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles;

• Aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles; and

• Aggregate vehicle production of 300,000 vehicles.
 
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