Originally Posted by
DriverOneOne possible hiccup that the bears may point at after this quarter's results is that of cancellations. I'm hoping for someone to step in and offer a counter.
Back in the July/August timeframe the estimate for my delivery (based on my reservation number) was May/June. Now it's Feb/Mar - which is great, but what explanation can there be for the much earlier delivery? It could be that the factory is working faster than predicted - yet the ramp up was delayed, so it would have to be working really faster to make up. Or it's due to a larger number of cancellations than anticipated. Delivery moved up by about 3 months, or 12 weeks; at 400 cars we week that's 12x400= 4800 places I've moved up in line; about 5000 cancellations. Given my reservation number in the low 11,000s that's over a third, nearly a half, of those orders ahead of me that cancelled.
I'm thrilled with the recent reservation rate, but can someone point out a flaw in my estimation of the cancellation rate?
I believe cancellations will decline over time, as the window between reservation and delivery shortens; less time to change minds or circumstances. This potential bear argument will weaken with that. This quarter could show particularly high cancellation numbers.