I see where you are coming from, but you've made a rookie mistake in your logic: market price is a reflection of FUTURE earnings. This is an important distinction, if it weren't true TSLA would be worthless because the company doesn't make any money. A consequence of this fact is that the guidance given in the quarterly report is much more important than the report of the quarter passed. A slight miss on predicted Q4 numbers (which is unlikely at this point anyway) is not nearly as interesting to the market as the guidance that will be given for 2013. Many commenters have pointed out that news about increasing production beyond 20k units (which is looking very likely) would be far more interesting than news about how Q4 went, and they are right.
Many a trader has been burned because they traded the quarterly report based on a thesis that they will beat/miss the quarter. Just look at Apple's last quarter. They beat the street, but got obliterated because the guidance was awful.
All that said, it appears to me that the market is already pricing in a successful Q4 and an increase in production for 2013. I wouldn't expect us to get above $40 in the aftermath of the conference call unless there is something else put forward that the market has not foreseen.