Citizen-T
Active Member
I don't know what you should do either. I'm going to raise a little bit more cash here in the mid $39s. That way whether we are up or down after the report, I can be happy about it.
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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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I don't know what you should do either. I'm going to raise a little bit more cash here in the mid $39s. That way whether we are up or down after the report, I can be happy about it.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
I sold some at 39.50 and rebought at 39.40 10 minutes later. Cold feet. But made a few hundred bucks on the "trade" anyway. I couldn't bear to stay out. 
I got cold feet couple weeks back before CREE reported, totally missed out on their 30% stock price increase. As far as I'm concerned TSLA has more forward-looking positives to report than CREE did. Yeah I know the market macro is probably a bit different now, but I'm ALL IN... go TSLA :biggrin:
mitch672
Active Member
The hardest thing for any investor to do is to "let your profits ride", and to resist the temptation to sell.
That's the difference between a good investor, and a truly great, rich investor.. At least that's what I've heard, I think Warren Buffet has been known to say this once or twice
22 Must Know Investment Quotes By Some Of The Worlds Greatest Investors | Addicted 2 Success
That's the difference between a good investor, and a truly great, rich investor.. At least that's what I've heard, I think Warren Buffet has been known to say this once or twice
22 Must Know Investment Quotes By Some Of The Worlds Greatest Investors | Addicted 2 Success
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Tesla: New Features And Upcoming Catalysts - Seeking Alpha
He wants to go long, but apparently hopes it will come down first so he can buy at a lower price.
Stock to Watch in 2013: The World's Best Electric Vehicle (TSLA)
He says buy.
I don't event think of selling at this point...
He wants to go long, but apparently hopes it will come down first so he can buy at a lower price.
Stock to Watch in 2013: The World's Best Electric Vehicle (TSLA)
He says buy.
I don't event think of selling at this point...
I think everything in kenliles list is basically known the past month, having been highly probable for a few months now. I suspect the runup has been the fact that Monday, facts will be released that will make the falsehood of the shorts FUD even more obvious. i.e. the stocks been going up because shorts and longs know the shorts will have to find new nonsense to broadcast about Tesla or move on (move on from their jeering, more so than move on as in massive covering).
so as to the items in the list, I do think we've seen the corresponding rise in the stock, and a bit of an overswing high (don't get me wrong, I own the stock because I see the potential for $600 in 10-12 years).
now, if Tesla gives some forward guidance, or some new fundamental information (i.e. developments in collaborations with Toyota or Mercedes) etc., well, I would expect the price to continue upward. modestly improved forward guidance (say a 25-30K production target for the year) likely will be shrugged off, but who knows, they may say something suggestive of more aggressive increases in sales targets. I think we may hear something about revamping of delivery process. that would certainly be a sign they are looking to up production with some umph.
I am looking forward to the call more than the Super Bowl, I think it will be a lot of fun. When the company's developmental successes are made public is largely unpredictable, but the successes are achieved over months and years. this has been a fun run, dip or rise next week, I think we are in a fun marathon with this company :tongue:
so as to the items in the list, I do think we've seen the corresponding rise in the stock, and a bit of an overswing high (don't get me wrong, I own the stock because I see the potential for $600 in 10-12 years).
now, if Tesla gives some forward guidance, or some new fundamental information (i.e. developments in collaborations with Toyota or Mercedes) etc., well, I would expect the price to continue upward. modestly improved forward guidance (say a 25-30K production target for the year) likely will be shrugged off, but who knows, they may say something suggestive of more aggressive increases in sales targets. I think we may hear something about revamping of delivery process. that would certainly be a sign they are looking to up production with some umph.
I am looking forward to the call more than the Super Bowl, I think it will be a lot of fun. When the company's developmental successes are made public is largely unpredictable, but the successes are achieved over months and years. this has been a fun run, dip or rise next week, I think we are in a fun marathon with this company :tongue:
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Closed at $39.48, highest closing price ever? (During the day, remained below the 52-week peak of $39.95, though).
I'm actually trying to determine that for the year along with net income IF elon's promise of a 25% gross margin is kept. Its just that the numbers are unbelievable. If what Elon is projecting for TSLA in 2013 comes true and the market values TSLA like a tech company (opposed to a car company) the upside on TSLA right now is ridiculous. Backing into a shareprice at P/E 300, my model puts the share price at ~$150. Crazy.
Yes, that's the highest closing price. The only time the stock was ever higher than $39.48 was during the day today (high of $39.68 today), and during the day on March 27th 2012 (high of $39.95).
Source:
TSLA Historical Prices | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
avatar I think the 25% is possible at some point in the future, perhaps within this year. When Elon sets a target he has a rare ability to hit it, even if some extra time is involved.
as to $150 valuation. Crazy. companies are sometimes valued in a crazy manner. it was the facebook IPO in a way that got me into Tesla. I had an aunt asking if she should buy. I tried to get context on Facebook's valuation by comparing it to a tech company I knew a little about with to me more meaningful added value... Tesla. Tesla looked so crazily undervalued comparatively, I got in.
I do think it's possible Tesla may enter a phase of the a "darling" stock people have a crush on, and close some of the gap with tech companies. I don't think quite to the $150 point now... but I think the stock may get some non-fundamental love in it's valuation.
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Jean Luc, perhaps $80,000 is a little low with price increase, but I think there never will be a higher revenue mix in sales than what's been produced in the last six months. in my mind I stick with $80K... very likely to come up in Monday's QA.
more importantly, I think you are double counting the tax incentive, if I understand what you mean by "add in." Telsa charges the prices on it's website, reports it as revenue on shipment, and if applicable the customer benefits from a tax credit when he/she files a federal return.
as to $150 valuation. Crazy. companies are sometimes valued in a crazy manner. it was the facebook IPO in a way that got me into Tesla. I had an aunt asking if she should buy. I tried to get context on Facebook's valuation by comparing it to a tech company I knew a little about with to me more meaningful added value... Tesla. Tesla looked so crazily undervalued comparatively, I got in.
I do think it's possible Tesla may enter a phase of the a "darling" stock people have a crush on, and close some of the gap with tech companies. I don't think quite to the $150 point now... but I think the stock may get some non-fundamental love in it's valuation.
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Jean Luc, perhaps $80,000 is a little low with price increase, but I think there never will be a higher revenue mix in sales than what's been produced in the last six months. in my mind I stick with $80K... very likely to come up in Monday's QA.
more importantly, I think you are double counting the tax incentive, if I understand what you mean by "add in." Telsa charges the prices on it's website, reports it as revenue on shipment, and if applicable the customer benefits from a tax credit when he/she files a federal return.
It depends on what you mean by "the prices on it's website." Most of the prices have the $7500 already subtracted, and the actual amount you pay is higher. The base price for a model S is 59,900 before accounting for the tax rebate.
I'd say the average perf is 108K before rebate (I imagine people getting the perf are loading it up).
The average 85 is over 90K
The average 60 is about 80K
With a new base price of 60K, even the average 40 is going to be at least 65K
I definitely expect 85's (perf + normal) to be more numerous that 40's + 60's, so I'd agree that an average of 80 is low.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
That seems high. Mine (before rebate) is $102k, and the only options I didn't get are the paint shield and jumpseats (I also got the "free" black paint...). Of course that's before the price increase, so maybe you were referring to after the price increase?
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Does anyone know if the earnings report is scheduled to be before or after the market opens on Monday?
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Does anyone know if the earnings report is scheduled to be before or after the market opens on Monday?
smorgasbord
Active Member
I find it hard to believe the quarter will be as great as many of you are suggesting.
I think they will have eaten into some of the money they raised in Oct. I think the quarter as whole was not cash flow positive. I think reservations spiked up, but the whole year's production was not sold out as of 12/31/12 when considering current drop-out rates. I think it's still costing Tesla more than they want to produce cars (look at all the due bill items and people they're bringing on board and need to train), and I think making cars for Europe and Asia this year will incur some additional costs both at the factory and with setting up Delivery/Service overseas. Let's also not forget the cost of setting up SuperChargers.
I'm a huge Tesla bull, but let's get real, folks. The breathless optimism here is scaring me.
I think they will have eaten into some of the money they raised in Oct. I think the quarter as whole was not cash flow positive. I think reservations spiked up, but the whole year's production was not sold out as of 12/31/12 when considering current drop-out rates. I think it's still costing Tesla more than they want to produce cars (look at all the due bill items and people they're bringing on board and need to train), and I think making cars for Europe and Asia this year will incur some additional costs both at the factory and with setting up Delivery/Service overseas. Let's also not forget the cost of setting up SuperChargers.
I'm a huge Tesla bull, but let's get real, folks. The breathless optimism here is scaring me.
gregincal, you are right the website has the price after tax credit in large numbers. poor choice of words on my part. my point was that adding tax credit to "purchase price" (words in original post) sounded like it could be misunderstood and lead to a double count of rebate.
I see many valid points in Smorgasbord's post... including managing expectations some.
I see many valid points in Smorgasbord's post... including managing expectations some.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Citizen-T
Active Member
FWIW, I sold half of my position today @$39.40. Given the volatility of the stock, I expect a re-entry point sometime later this month that will give me some upside on the pair of trades.
I bought some puts a few days ago as short term insurance. Basically will help me sleep at night and not fret over things so much. If it does tank after the earnings, then I use money made from puts towards buying more shares! If it goes up, it just eats a tiny bit into my profits, oh well.
avatar, if you want to dig into it they did talk about cancellation rates on last quarter's call. Seeking Alpha has a transcript of the call. my recollection is the cancel rate was 10-15%, and on the call, Tesla management expressed their expectation it would be lower in the future (as the wait list is comprised of people who made a reservation months ago rather than years ago).
as you probably know right here on TMC is a thread where reservations are tallied. last I looked it suggested something like 21,000 net reservations, with a footnote explaining their calculation of net. I don't know if that number takes out from net reservations the 4,000 or so cars now delivered.
as you probably know right here on TMC is a thread where reservations are tallied. last I looked it suggested something like 21,000 net reservations, with a footnote explaining their calculation of net. I don't know if that number takes out from net reservations the 4,000 or so cars now delivered.
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