bdy0627
Active Member
I was doing the same with some AUG17 $320s that I bought 6 weeks ago. It felt like the expiration date was getting a little close for comfort but the strike was well within Tesla's ability to rise over a few days (1!).
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I have spent years commenting in various places to try to warn those people not to listen to the FUD.
At least those people will learn the harsh first lesson of investing: you have to do your own research, because more than half of what you read is BS.
Sparky
Member
What I've heard is Tesla has grabbed a lot of design talent from Apple and Google.You don't have to run faster than the bear.
I'm not really impressed by Tesla's software team, but I keep comparing them to *software* companies, and to the absolute best software engineering companies at that. They are so far ahead of other *car* companies it isn't funny.
What it has yielded is some stunningly strong board layout and integration, with housings, cooling, connectivity etc.
I think that much has been confirmed by the 3rd party, Model 3 teardowns.
They also got some pretty good UX talent and inherited a strong penchant for secrecy.
These sorts of things are why you locate in Silicon Valley instead of Michigan. Especially if you see yourself as building wheeled, autonomous, thinking machines.
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bdy0627
Active Member
Not only do they smoke that stuff but they pass it around until they all believe it. Seriously!
msft
nvda
amzn
fb
baba
googl
a startup called groq (with chamath SoCap backing)
i just googled tech co’s making their own TPUs. wired did a bunch of articles on this in 2017 about google. i haven’t tracked much on that recently. but it seemed ineveitable that tesla would go it’s own way on this. same goes for the mbly breakup. exciting stuff.
It is important to note that there are two kinds of AI chips, one for training, one for serving.
yes i was perusing through that 190 pg prospectus for the 2019s and 2021s.
they can pay stock, cash, or a combo of stock and cash to those who convert. something about the rate is 2.7788 unles the stk is lower than 252.44 or higher than 900. the language in that doc is so difficult to follow (and i have experience in corp actions/m&a type operations) it’s ridiculous. basically what i got was that they don’t have to pay cash. at some point we should update the debt obligation thread.
i figured once the conv window at dtcc opens up in dec 1 i could find more info. now to just the prospectus and dtcc. id like to, but i don’t think we could find out how much has been converted at a given point in time either.
Yeah, I can see why vertical integration makes this a *lot quicker*. Trying to do this with an outside supplier is *inherently slow*.
Well, I said I wasn't very impressed by their *software* team, but Tesla has one of the best computer *hardware* teams I've ever seen.
In the last call they stated 200- 250 kW was the right charge rate with current tech.
Since then Porsce has stated they have a high energy density, so apparently the trade-off is not that. Probably cost? Maybe the base Taycan will have a small battery?
In any event, I don’t think Tesla would add much to what they’ve stated previously.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm still processing the call. It feels a bit like the SpongeBob episode where SpongeBob learns to be normal.
At any rate, it was good to bring in so many of the technical leaders. This helps position the company as a technology leader, and pivots attention away from singular focus on the person of Musk. This is a brilliant PR strategy. One is left with the impression that the broad, intelligent leadership of Tesla would be able to continue the mission even if Musk were somehow out of the picture.
Additionally there is a tone down of big ambition. The focus seems to be on solving many smaller practical problems. That the whole enterprise is cell constrained is quite sobering and speaks to the formidable challenges that await any EV maker that aspires to high volume EV manufacture. In fact just throwing capital at it cannot not speed things more quickly. This new heads-down-make-more-batteries posture could prove to deflate several many lines of critique used against Tesla.
On the other hand, my own investment thesis has centered around the idea that Tesla would grow revenue by 50% per year through 2025, while moving toward a 10% profit margin. This less aggressive posture is more favorable for hitting a profit margin goal, but does throw into question whether Tesla really wants or is able to keep growing at 50%. I figure that just to sustain this growth to 2020 means at least 800k vehicles sold in 2020. Specifically, 100k S/X and 700k 3/Y. But it is not at all apparent that Tels has a path to building 200k in Shanghai in 2020. So even 700k will be a stretch. Perhaps Tesla can find some way to build 35k Semis, which I would take in trade for 100k Model 3. So 100k S/X, 600k 3/Y and 35k Semi may be doable, and just barely support 50% growth rate.
Granted even if Tesla is just growing revenue at 35% per year, it is still a very good investment, but visions of a $1T market cap slip out of view. What is needed are other capital efficient ways to monetize the technology that Tesla is building. One glimmer is building AI chips for autonomous driving and other applications. The chip manufacturing can be outsourced and the technology can be licensed. So this could prove to generate earnings with low capital commitment.
So I think that institutional investors will really like the new Tesla and normal Elon. Shorts will lose ground. But some of us long-term bulls may look at this lean cow and wonder what happened to the sizzle.
So I think we could see a run up soon. It think it will lose energy around $430 to $460 as a more modest ambition Tesla can't sustain that. Then it falls back into the $370 to $400 range and gets stuck for a few years. So as Tesla surges above $400, I will be inclined to trim my position. I'm sure there are plenty of other normal stocks out there that would do just as well.
At least, this is how I see it tonight. Perhaps in the morning or the the days ahead, I may see things differently.
At any rate, it was good to bring in so many of the technical leaders. This helps position the company as a technology leader, and pivots attention away from singular focus on the person of Musk. This is a brilliant PR strategy. One is left with the impression that the broad, intelligent leadership of Tesla would be able to continue the mission even if Musk were somehow out of the picture.
Additionally there is a tone down of big ambition. The focus seems to be on solving many smaller practical problems. That the whole enterprise is cell constrained is quite sobering and speaks to the formidable challenges that await any EV maker that aspires to high volume EV manufacture. In fact just throwing capital at it cannot not speed things more quickly. This new heads-down-make-more-batteries posture could prove to deflate several many lines of critique used against Tesla.
On the other hand, my own investment thesis has centered around the idea that Tesla would grow revenue by 50% per year through 2025, while moving toward a 10% profit margin. This less aggressive posture is more favorable for hitting a profit margin goal, but does throw into question whether Tesla really wants or is able to keep growing at 50%. I figure that just to sustain this growth to 2020 means at least 800k vehicles sold in 2020. Specifically, 100k S/X and 700k 3/Y. But it is not at all apparent that Tels has a path to building 200k in Shanghai in 2020. So even 700k will be a stretch. Perhaps Tesla can find some way to build 35k Semis, which I would take in trade for 100k Model 3. So 100k S/X, 600k 3/Y and 35k Semi may be doable, and just barely support 50% growth rate.
Granted even if Tesla is just growing revenue at 35% per year, it is still a very good investment, but visions of a $1T market cap slip out of view. What is needed are other capital efficient ways to monetize the technology that Tesla is building. One glimmer is building AI chips for autonomous driving and other applications. The chip manufacturing can be outsourced and the technology can be licensed. So this could prove to generate earnings with low capital commitment.
So I think that institutional investors will really like the new Tesla and normal Elon. Shorts will lose ground. But some of us long-term bulls may look at this lean cow and wonder what happened to the sizzle.
So I think we could see a run up soon. It think it will lose energy around $430 to $460 as a more modest ambition Tesla can't sustain that. Then it falls back into the $370 to $400 range and gets stuck for a few years. So as Tesla surges above $400, I will be inclined to trim my position. I'm sure there are plenty of other normal stocks out there that would do just as well.
At least, this is how I see it tonight. Perhaps in the morning or the the days ahead, I may see things differently.
Musk first says it's cell production and then corrects himself and says cell *supply chain*. While I think they can build new cell production lines pretty fast (and just throw capital at them)....
...the implication I took is that lining up the materials supply is harder. This is something Tesla has been working on for years and IIRC there are *three* global supply chain executives, so they're very serious. But are they going to have to find financing for their own mines? I'd think throwing capital at the problem would solve that.
One way to put it: Tesla can't grow faster with more capital right now, but is Musk going to change his mind about that in 9 months? Are they going to solve the organizational problems and realize that what they really need in mid-2019 is to finance a lithium mine and a cobalt mine, or something like that? We may see more stock issuances at that point.
Perhaps.
Nope. I think they have a good innovation mindset. To do things differently and better.
Coming up with an idea of a dash that has nothing but an iPad like screen requires out of the box innovative thinking.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Is this finally the ER call where "a win needs to feel like a win" ?
GBleck
Member
Checks notes. NVDA up 354% over the time I have owned it. Not worried about it taking a tiny hit.
It is the ER call where everybody was like sitting in a lounge sipping a pick your favorite Islay scotch so... yeah, I do think so.
Smokey for me, a Bowmore will do for tonight but I,ll take a Lagavulin 16 tomorrow with the price action
Cheers fellow longs!
Have you figured in impact of S&P500 inclusion? Seems likely for next summer.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Weaponized, autonomous surfboards with flamethrowers.
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