TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

I picked up some $400 J19 calls more than a month back when Elon was calling for the short burn of the century. I've been down as much as 70% on them, let's see how much they recover tomorrow. I'm just glad their expiration was so far in the future, I've been waiting patiently for awhile now. Never gave up on them, because January is a long ways away, just sat on them and waited.

 

[brian45011]

But why did you choose such a far away call? There is a massive premium to it. Wouldnt buying a more near term call and rolling over be cheaper?

Volatility crush

 

[ZsoZso]

Seems like a FUD tactic.

Fear of Tesla creating a "terminator." Uncertainty that it may fall into the hands of the Chinese.

I just wonder how long before a Model 3 shows up on the roads with the license plate: TERMINATOR

 

[Sparky]

Thanks for your transparency. It's important to keep in mind that longs and shorts exist within different information bubbles. Specifically, this related to the credibility granted to Tesla management. Longs and shorts may hear the same words spoken by the same management, but shorts are inclined not to believe them. This also leaves shorts vulnerable to granting greater credibility to otherwise less credible sources than a company's management. Certainly if one finds management lacking in credibility, it is wise simply not to invest in that company. But we all must choose our own information bubble. In the long run, company performance will reveal which bubble was more adaptive. All the best.

+1.... or sometimes we do dumb things.
I was feeling pretty smart up until today. I sold about 30% of my trading shares as the price fell through $320. Sat on the cash, wanting to buy more shares. Even though the low $290's were available to me and even though I have a kid working at Tesla this summer who mostly sends me warm fuzzy snippits of the work and how nice it is to work somewhere with a rather aggressive problem solving posture. Even though all the signs were there... I decided to not buy back through the CC but yesterday bought more... NVDA. As soon as I learned the AP team was participating in the CC I thought "this could be very good or very bad". FFS.

 

[TradingInvest]

problem is, i like question marks when i have a question i'm posing. you know?

sorry if it comes across as clickbait. we have a lot of long discussions over there (maybe not like this thread, but hundreds of comments long) and i see many articles as the start of a discussion. a question is sometimes the most natural way to kick that off.

I have a hard rule to not read any click bait with a question mark. But I give exception to your articles. They are great.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

i am overleveraged as always and too late for me the only thing between me and the next margin call is $290
i am super confident that $300 will hold

Did you ever get this margin call?

 

[jelloslug]

i honestly felt like i was an idiot on the call — too many Qs and thoughts and too little time — but such is life.

Just tried to prioritize what I thought would have most impact and use in 2-3 min timeframe.

Frankly, you had the best questions on the entire call.

 

[dc_h]

This was the "Wells Notice" that shorts have been harping on for months. Even Quoth the Raven dedicated an entire podcast to it. Great that this has finally put to bed.

But Speigal and team are still in denial.
They are so vested, even after not only profit, but debt pay down is stated and to be done without sacrificing growt, it just doesn’t compute.

 

[MikeC]

Waiting for mulder to let us know...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

July 2013, FB
FB jumped overnight from $25 to $30 something. My first option position ever, where I invested $1800 and was worth $400 the night before, jumped overnight to $3000. I took my $1200 profit.

And left $40,000 of potential future gain on the table (it was some 30 calls of $30 strike, Dec or Jan expiry).

There is a rule of some sort to not sell if jump is larger than certain percentage, and stock does not retreat. Some gaps never gets filled.
Just saying.

 

[theschnell]

View attachment 322331
But Speigal and team are still in denial.
They are so vested, even after not only profit, but debt pay down is stated and to be done without sacrificing growt, it just doesn’t compute.

Won't have a November call? What crack is he smoking? That is downright lunacy, barring some major black swan event that no one can predict.

 

[theschnell]

My prediction for tomorrow. Stock rises significantly at open above tonights after hours number (low 340s). Then we see heavy pushback, perhaps down into the teens. Then back up to close in the low to mid $330s. Just total speculation and I don't trade on these ideas. Just hold long and strong.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Anybody else with the courage of their convictions?

Nope.
I was weirdly under-leveraged.
See my Sig.

 

[Jack6591]

All my best to those who have supported Tesla, Elon, JB, the entire Tesla team, the first adopters, and the early investors. I wish you all success and prosperity. Your vision and steady nerve has driven the success of this revolution.
It is this ability to emotionally master the difference between signal and noise that has brought Tesla its triumphs.
Now is the time to confidently sell the “great sense” of sustainability. Unmistakably, the bears will emerge growling in the morning. This fight is long from over.

 

[bdy0627]

Going to leave this right here. Quite a headline

Hmm, missing the point just a wee bit there, huh?

 

[TradingInvest]

All my best to those who have supported Tesla, Elon, JB, the entire Tesla team, the first adopters, and the early investors. I wish you all success and prosperity. Your vision and steady nerve has driven the success of this revolution.
It is this ability to emotionally master the difference between signal and noise that has brought Tesla its triumphs.
Now is the time to confidently sell the “great sense” of sustainability. Unmistakably, the bears will emerge growling in the morning. This fight is long from over.

One of the reasons why I delayed my new purchase to after QR is to fight the short manipulation. I can continue to add TSLA for the next 10 years, and continue to buy Tesla products. I will see what shorts can do.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

My prediction for tomorrow. Stock rises significantly at open above tonights after hours number (low 340s). Then we see heavy pushback, perhaps down into the teens. Then back up to close in the low to mid $330s. Just total speculation and I don't trade on these ideas. Just hold long and strong.

Tomorrow we'll see just how much power the longs have to battle against the shorts.

Over 3 million shares traded after hours today is crazy though. I don't think I've seen that much after hours action on a stock before, 3 million shares is literally almost half the usual daily market hours volume on an average day for TSLA!

 

[sundaymorning]

Third Q: Capital spending plans. How do you plan on funding without going back to capital markets. And is there a notice preventing you from raising.

Elon: No expectation of raising equity. At all. Expect to borrow funds for China factory (local debt). Could raise money, but don't need to.

Deepak: Reiterates.

Elon: Default plan to actually pay off debts. Not refi, actually pay them off. No such notice from regulator.

Elon is pretty much saying “screw you guys for bashing us, we’re borrowing debt somewhere else where people don’t play games with my company and I’ll happily pay them interest instead thank you very much.”

 

[neroden]

If there is going to be a huge runup, people are trying to grab it before the main trading session. I've done that, successfully.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't actually realize how *spectacularly positive* this ER and earnings call was. We could see more successful bear raid tactics.

It was a great ER -- I was running with luvb2b's estimates, and luvb2b mentions the positive surprises in the "estimates" thread. It was a great call too -- I got answers to all but two of my questions. (The ones which didn't get asked are about what I still think is the biggest issue for Tesla IMO -- internal communications -- but the communications failures also remain irrelevant for several years to come, due to the lack of other high-volume EV manufacturers.)

 

[bdy0627]

Hope you didn’t lighten up on your calls. I wonder if that short is posting screenshots from this thread today? Can’t say we didn’t warn him.

I did not trim a single call today. I actually think I might have if not for 2 things - great posts on here providing solid reasons why TSLA was likely not to drop on this ER, and all of the gloating by the twitter shorts. Cheers!