Happy day ! AAPL is just over 1 T.B mark. When Tsla will be?
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He can't afford one any more....
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I suspect they did recently get a more acute understanding of the constraints on growth other than capital, but they haven’t yet come up against those constraints.
If M3 sales ramp up as planned this year, they can raise more capital in Q1 2019 on good terms and use it for new capacity in China, for expanding Nevada and Buffalo, and maximizing Fremont. They don’t need new tech for the existing S/3/X lineup; they can copy and paste the best of what they’ve got. The main constraints will be access to inputs (raw materials for batteries, parts from suppliers) and hiring, of which the raw materials are probably the only potentially tricky one. I’m thinking they won’t hit the upper limits there before 700-800k per year, though, and more supply will come online after.
But yeah, hearing Musk scaling down their 2020 roadmap on the fly during the call was sobering for me too. As much as I dislike the guy, Higgins asked a good question.
If they are not so savvy, why is their brokerage allowing them to do options or short? a serious question. Schwab is quite cautious with me and I've been with then since 1980's.
mutle
Member
Yahoo is still using old share counts, but it will happen sooner than later: "$AAPL is NOT $1T until $207 based on the 10Q."
squawksquare on Twitter
I wonder if Tesla really has the capacity to make much more S/X at Fremont. Didn't they say that line is already runing full tilt? My guess is it will not happen before a major refresh to simplify production, and that will probably wait until 3 is where we all want it (including TE, etc). So, S/X not only battery constrained, IMO.
But I'm just guessing, too.
With regard to the 2020 production figure, note that Elon’s CC answer conflicts with the shareholder letter. Given Elon’s propensity to exaggerate, I’ll believe the letter. The WSJ reporter asked if 1M cars was still possible in 2020, and Elon said yes, and that Shanghai was the path to get there. Then Elon started backpedaling in his answer all the way back to 500K for 2020.
The shareholder letter said initial cars coming out of Shanghai will be in 3 years, that’s mid 2021. Initial cars, initial ramp.
So, I’d belive 500k cars, maybe, by 2020.
The bottom line is that to keep growing, Tesla needs to keep building factories. Both car assembly and battery cells.
A lot of things might be happening here, we just don’t know the answers. It may be that Elon made the decision to have a nice clean earnings report and not muddy the waters with talk of capital raises for future factories. A year from now when the share price is $500, he can credibly say the time is good to raise money for a European factory. Or Tesla’s credit might be good enough then to borrow the money for more factories. Thinking about it, secured loans for property and equipment shouldn’t be too expensive?
It is also possible that Tesla is running up against commodity pricing issues for dramatically increasing battery cell supply. Maybe they’ve identified supply, but it won’t come online for another couple of years. We just don’t know,
What I do know is that Tesla has a mission to continue to dominate the EV market, and have a lot of very interesting high sales volume future products (Semi, Model Y, pickup truck). I have little doubt they will grow as fast as they can, unconstrained by demand. How fast they can ramp is still unknown...
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
"Drill baby, drill!"
"Drill baby, drill!!"
"Drill baby... What? WHAT?!"
What the hell do you mean "It's all gone"?!?
"Drill baby, drill!!"
"Drill baby... What? WHAT?!"
What the hell do you mean "It's all gone"?!?
+50% growth is a false goal.
The official goal is defined in elon's compensation plan
It calls for +27% annualized growth rate for the next 10 years.
This same plan was judged as insane with those same short idiots, that now cry about "slow growth under 50%".
Do not play their game.
The official goal is defined in elon's compensation plan
It calls for +27% annualized growth rate for the next 10 years.
This same plan was judged as insane with those same short idiots, that now cry about "slow growth under 50%".
Do not play their game.
This is just one example of how growth might continue at 50% plus (your number could be right.)
On the other hand, I think 700K Model Y by EOY 2021 is not unreasonable. We don't have much insight yet into the plan for Model Y and Semi. But Elon thinks demand will be higher for Model Y than Model 3 and also believes they can manufacture more simply and efficiently and with less capital per vehicle. Also, Tesla undoubtedly has learned a ton from Model 3.
If they begin production in mid-2020 as previously forecast by EOY 2021 I think 700K is ambitious but not pie-in-the-sky (1.5 years to 700K/year v. 2 years to 500K/year current trajectory for Model 3, with no experience and lots of production glitches).
ABC NEWS:
Tesla stock up despite $717 billion loss last quarter
I think someone at ABC has trouble reading earnings reports.
Tesla stock up despite $717 billion loss last quarter
I think someone at ABC has trouble reading earnings reports.
I must admit, I am very disappointed !
Oh, not in the ER, but in the Shorts. I was expecting some real fireworks from them, a true all hands on deck effort to push the price down this morning. Come on, they can't just give up now and walk away with tail between legs! Where is the fighting spirit ?
Oh, not in the ER, but in the Shorts. I was expecting some real fireworks from them, a true all hands on deck effort to push the price down this morning. Come on, they can't just give up now and walk away with tail between legs! Where is the fighting spirit ?
Personally, I tweet authors when they write something ignorant or just simple mistakes.
Politely. Don't be mean.
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Sprints are a part of SCRUM manufacturing.
The Sprung could be put up tomorrow, set up the line,
while building the factory next door.
Elon mentioned they now unload the parts straight from the delivery trucks to the Fremont Sprung line.
BTW, I remember a 1990's Sprung type structure that was the original Pima Indian casino, right next to Scottsdale, AZ.
It's now a multi million $ resort; Talking Stick Resort and Casino | Resorts in Scottsdale, AZ
What will happen first?????
Apple reaches 1 Trillion Capitalization
Tesla loses 1 Trillion
I agree, especially on the battery cells which Elon said would become the limiting factor during the cc. What does not make sense is Elon's nuanced answer to growth vs reducing capital expediters to be profitable. He essentially said that Tesla has got to the point where throwing more money at growth would have little impact at this stage as compared to earlier stages. If battery cells are the limiting factor, then spending capitol on a new giga factory is exactly what would propel growth. The only thing I can think of is the degree of shorting has been so disruptive that shaking off the shorts initially is what is needed by proving profitability over cell production but that is not what Elon said or implied at any point in the cc.
Spiegel's ranting away, but I'm not sure many are listening.
The 10% gain looks to be baked-in right now. Another 10% would be nice. Is that being greedy?
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