TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Runarbt]

This has been me for the last 24 hours:

-Shareholder call, watch TSLA surge after hours
-Pretty girl gave me phone number
-Found out this morning the new place I wanted to rent is now mine
-Got to skip out on lunch to celebrate grandmother's B-day and eat cake
-Watched TSLA rocket upwards this afternoon.

Best 24 hours of the summer.

e-Fives for everyone!

Please tell me you also added some stock/calls, or at least didnt sell any. Your good fortune might indicate tomorrow might be a replay.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Fair enough. Not a terrible idea to start Semi production, @Bobfitz1. I just think starting something so major in drips and drabs - not ready to fulfill orders on demand - will do more to hurt their reputation and frustrate clients that want to ramp up. I agree with you that Tesla has done this on the past, and in doing so, has overcommited, missed deadlines. I'm saying now is the time they don't need to rush, there is more benefit to showing steady management before they embark on their next growth spurt.

And it's not like I'm being anti-progress. Elsewhere I'm promoting the idea of opening up Model 3 orders to Europe. Lower risk, no capital cost than starting a new market / model.

Fair enough. Opening up M3 orders to Europe once NA M3 P sales slow down seems like a great idea. The boost to Q3 and 4 profitability from selling many high ASP M3P may be higher than many are now factoring in.
Elon will keep pushing hard until end of Q3. Then take a vacation and return recharged to resume pulling more rabbits out of his hat. We can all hope that this time he will have learned to take expectation setting on new products down a half notch.
Who knows, maybe one of them will be some early Semi deliveries. I've been surprised at how many new and existing companies now are trying to bring their own electric trucks to market. Tesla showing concretely that their Semi has an insurmountable lead might thin out the field.

 

[ZachF]

Please tell me you also added some stock/calls, or at least didnt sell any. Your good fortune might indicate tomorrow might be a replay.

Just a small fry who adds a little bit every dip when he can and holds

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The month of July was just like the last season Dallas...

...nothing but a dream.

A horrible nightmare...that had Jim Chanos in it. Ughhh...I think I just threw up a little.

Dan

 

[elasalle]

Just the appetizer. By Q3, Q4 the main course will be served

.. upper BB also got **kd'd today
most (paper) monies I have made in market on a single day ...

 

[Runarbt]

Just the appetizer. My Q3, Q4 the main course will be served

most monies I have made in market on a single day ...

I am looking forward to it. Hopefully the aniticpation wont make confirmation of FCF+ in Q3 a sell-the news event. One never know though. But at least for now - shorts will hurt big time and eventually most will fold. And new fresh ones will enter. Believing their timing were better.

 

[defc0n]

I still smell some more blood in the water.

 

[bdy0627]

My options closed the day at a staggering 91.75%. Closest expiry aug 10. Longest dec21.

I’ll probably close out all of my Aug positions tomorrow. Unless there is some evidence that many shorts received a margin call and are forced to cover and we see a big move.

Those that are expecting upward pressure tomorrow because of margin calls. Is that something we have seen on the day after the other big moves of TSLA?

It's worth posting again. Here's the chart showing what I believe was the previous largest climb in 1 day at 15.8% on January 14, 2014. Note that on that day, the stock also started below the 50 MA, just like today. It shot right up through it, like today. Very heavy volume, just like today. Note that the next day, it stayed above the upper BB and then ran along it for 5 more days, climbing another 12%. It then consolidated for a couple of weeks between the middle and the upper BB before REALLY climbing. Total gain by February 26 was 82%. I did trim some calls today because....well, we just had a 16% climb. Moving forward, I probably won't trim again until the shorts make me by demonstrating the stock has run out of steam. $365? Maybe higher? Keep in mind we have a 50/200 golden cross and MACD cross. We'll see.

Here's the chart from January 2014:

And here's our chart from today:

 

[bdy0627]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Sweeeeet!

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

This has been me for the last 24 hours:

-Shareholder call, watch TSLA surge after hours
-Pretty girl gave me phone number
-Found out this morning the new place I wanted to rent is now mine
-Got to skip out on lunch to celebrate grandmother's B-day and eat cake
-Watched TSLA rocket upwards this afternoon.

Best 24 hours of the summer.

e-Fives for everyone!

nice!
all I got was a new shelter puppy...and practically no sleep! Huskies seem a bit nutz,wow
...soft puppy enhances the happy stock smile
I say we open tomorrow @ $369 & next week breaking $400

 

[Bullish_Bear]

who has the July letter from our dear friend Mark Spiegel and his Stanphyl Capital? What's this guy's position? Thanks!

 

[uselesslogin]

@bdy0627 May 9th, 2013 I think was the biggest one day gain at like 24%.

 

[ZachF]

who has the July letter from our dear friend Mark Spiegel and his Stanphyl Capital? What's this guy's position? Thanks!

I think his position is currently fourth in line at the liquor store...

 

[shlokavica22]

who has the July letter from our dear friend Mark Spiegel and his Stanphyl Capital? What's this guy's position? Thanks!

https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Stanphyl-Capital-Letter-June-2018.pdf

Around this time he claimed that he "rolled" his short position to put leaps, plus some Aug puts (if I remember correctly).

 

[dailo]

https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Stanphyl-Capital-Letter-June-2018.pdf

Around this time he claimed that he "rolled" his short position to put leaps, plus some Aug puts (if I remember correctly).

Didn't read the whole thing, but amazing. Not sure how anyone who does a little research can come to all these conclusions. I stopped reading after it said they don't have anything proprietary. Feel bad for the people in that fund.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Feel bad for the people in that fund.

Both of them?

 

[shlokavica22]

Didn't read the whole thing, but amazing. Not sure how anyone who does a little research to come to all these conclusions. I stopped reading after it said they don't have anything proprietary. Feel bad for the people in that fund.

Absolutely. His "fund" is probably smaller than many of the portfolios of the users in this forum. If I remember correctly he started with 2M or so. With the attitude he shows on TWTR (stubbornest, arrogance, lack of understanding of the companies he invests in) I highly doubt he increased significantly the initial investment.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So, to me, looks like this afternoon's (east coast time) price action was short covering. I'm told that margins calls go out midday at noon (in addition to overnight or first thing in the morning). If you look at the attached price/volume chart for Tesla today, there was massive volume at the open, then it calmed down quite a bit. But then, right at 9:00 am (this is a west coast screen cap, noon eastern), volume spiked and the price went straight up. Looks to me like short covering on margin calls....

 

[sdtslafan]

I think his position is currently fourth in line at the liquor store...

For a job interview.

 

[skitown]

nice!
all I got was a new shelter puppy...and practically no sleep! Huskies seem a bit nutz,wow
...soft puppy enhances the happy stock smile
I say we open tomorrow @ $369 & next week breaking $400
View attachment 322526

Awesome! Huskies ARE nutz!