TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[kbM3]

Wasn’t there news on Einhorn’s losses just a couple of days ago?

I must be a bad person to look forward to what they’re going to look like soon.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

View attachment 322361


Let me summarize reddit bears with this photo posted above. They’re rolling in deep $h1t right now, hope he bought on margins and get wipped clean. Let this be a lesson for shorts/bears.

I saw that person with 75k in put options from 4 days ago, and those options are now basically worthless.

r/wallstreetbets was in pandemonium last night, with people writing things like "RIP" and "Press F" as their Robinhood account balances cratered. I haven't checked r/RealTesla, but it can't be a good day over there either.

 

[Zaxxon]

Surprised to see us at 11am Eastern with no short pushback. $330 close would be quite ominous for shorts.

Wait for it.

Also, man, has the stock ever jumped from near the lower BB to above the upper BB before?

Wait for it

336! Is this the EAR (early afternoon rise)?

Wait for it...

Are we gonna pop $340 today?

Dan

WAIT FOR IT...

Broke through 340!

KEEP WAITING.

It's not at $340 any more.

INDEED IT IS NOT.

If $345 holds, then shorts are looking at a ~$1.5b daily loss.

Wait for it.

I can see $350 from were I'm sitting.

Me, too.

Wasn't able to crack 350 today. Shorts were right, Tesla is doomed.

Total failure.

I still smell some more blood in the water.

Ditto.

 

[SPadival]

Ha! This is not exactly a compelling short thesis. "I'm shorting Tesla because growing profitably will slow them to below 50% annual growth." Yeah, that would be like the bumbest short thesis ever.

Yes! From none other than Chanos himself.

Diogenes on Twitter

If we were rationally discussing finance, yes. The $TSLA investors who have hockey stick growth models for 2020-2025 just got a reality check.

Well... what does a guy do when his central pillar of creating a "crisis of confidence" gets knocked out of the park (no need for a raise & Chinese banks to fund GF3)

"With a financial services company like Fairfax, it can all be self-fulfilling. If the market finally decides the glass isn't half full anymore, the trouble starts... you can see the stock go into a waterfall."

 

[ZachShahan]

Yes! From none other than Chanos himself.

Diogenes on Twitter



Well... what does a guy do when his central pillar of creating a "crisis of confidence" gets knocked out of the park (no need for a raise & Chinese banks to fund GF3)

Jesus. Yup, the FUD is not going to stop. But it is a world of help for the Tesla brand (as much as that word sucks ) to not have article after article about Tesla's imminent death.

 

[scaesare]

https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Stanphyl-Capital-Letter-June-2018.pdf

Around this time he claimed that he "rolled" his short position to put leaps, plus some Aug puts (if I remember correctly).

Good grief... that list of links to "bad news"... ROFL...

 

[BioSehnsucht]

What causes the stock to bounce off $350 ? Did a lot of people put in sales orders at/around $350 thinking that if it ever gets up there again they want out, and enough shares were available at that price that the price never went above it?

 

[wipster]

Hey did anybody notice the question from Zachary Shahan of CleanTechnica late in the call that included "the daily production, we've been seeing a rise and fall with the daily production of the Model 3..."? I was somewhat surprised that he wasn't asked where he got his information, since daily production isn't "officially" published. The only info I see is the tweets from that yinyang Skabooshka (perhaps twats are better used here) and I have no idea how reliable those are.

Just thought it was curious so I put it out to see if anybody knows more about it...

Duh, like maybe you Zach! Guess I should open my eyes!

 

[ZachShahan]

Hey did anybody notice the question from Zachary Shahan of CleanTechnica late in the call that included "the daily production, we've been seeing a rise and fall with the daily production of the Model 3..."? I was somewhat surprised that he wasn't asked where he got his information, since daily production isn't "officially" published. The only info I see is the tweets from that yinyang Skabooshka (perhaps twats are better used here) and I have no idea how reliable those are.

Just thought it was curious so I put it out to see if anybody knows more about it...

When he started to reply, I honestly thought he was going to say something about Skabooshka's numbers, but ended up he was just providing a wise note on how some in the media will spin anything challenging. But I also figured the question was vague enough and it is obvious enough that production rises & falls that he maybe didn't get suspicious about any specific numbers I was referencing.

That said, doing some simple math based on the graph in the letter, it seems Model 3 deliveries were maybe 13000–14000, so production of ~16000 seems close to reality if not optimistic.

As others have pointed out, though, relying on numbers from someone like that is not a wise thing to do. I just like checking them against Bloomberg's and my own estimates/hunches.

 

[wipster]

When he started to reply, I honestly thought he was going to say something about Skabooshka's numbers, but ended up he was just providing a wise note on how some in the media will spin anything challenging. But I also figured the question was vague enough and it is obvious enough that production rises & falls that he maybe didn't get suspicious about any specific numbers I was referencing.

That said, doing some simple math based on the graph in the letter, it seems Model 3 deliveries were maybe 13000–14000, so production of ~16000 seems close to reality if not optimistic.

As others have pointed out, though, relying on numbers from someone like that is not a wise thing to do. I just like checking them against Bloomberg's and my own estimates/hunches.

Thanks Zach! I feel like a fool not realizing you were right here in front of me. Appreciate the swift reply. Great questions BTW!

 

[TrendTrader007]

I Will keep on buying calls like there is no tomorrow
I totally predict SP $450 by October 2018 and $580 by February 2019 and $700 by June 2019
I’d love if I’m wrong and SP CRUSHES these numbers which it very well may with short squeeze

 

[wipster]

I think that was bad data. It showed up on my chart earlier, but it is gone now, so I think they fixed it.

The same thing happened after hours on the eTrade chart the day before and it too disappeared quickly... probably a plot by Elon

 

[ZachShahan]

Thanks Zach! I feel like a fool not realizing you were right here in front of me. Appreciate the swift reply. Great questions BTW!

Thanks. I always enjoy getting more of an inside, technical view of what they are doing, and Elon is so good at explaining these things. But it was a slick move of his to deflect and not kick off another media controversy.

Also, I'm honestly very curious what the challenges are for getting to 10K/week.

 

[ZachShahan]

I Will keep on buying calls like there is no tomorrow
I totally predict SP $450 by October 2018 and $580 by February 2019 and $700 by June 2019
I’d love if I’m wrong and SP CRUSHES these numbers which it very well may with short squeeze

Yeah, wish I had more spare cash to put in. I imagine this is the very beginning of the short squeeze. Almost invisible at this point, but will grow in coming months.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I Will keep on buying calls like there is no tomorrow
I totally predict SP $450 by October 2018 and $580 by February 2019 and $700 by June 2019
I’d love if I’m wrong and SP CRUSHES these numbers which it very well may with short squeeze

Dear G... not this again...

 

[wipster]

Thanks. I always enjoy getting more of an inside, technical view of what they are doing, and Elon is so good at explaining these things. But it was a slick move of his to deflect and not kick off another media controversy.

Also, I'm honestly very curious what the challenges are for getting to 10K/week.

Ditto... if it's not one thing it's your brother...

Let's hope they get to 800 a day quickly when the body challenges get figured out. Hate to have to rely on Sheik Yerabooty to hear about though.

 

[CyberDutchie]

TSLA shares gained 16% today, my total TSLA portfolio 27%.

Does anyone like to share their TSLA portfolio gain today as well?

Would be fun to find out who’s extremely leveraged, and how that played out today.

 

[gringotuanis]

When he started to reply, I honestly thought he was going to say something about Skabooshka's numbers, but ended up he was just providing a wise note on how some in the media will spin anything challenging. But I also figured the question was vague enough and it is obvious enough that production rises & falls that he maybe didn't get suspicious about any specific numbers I was referencing.

That said, doing some simple math based on the graph in the letter, it seems Model 3 deliveries were maybe 13000–14000, so production of ~16000 seems close to reality if not optimistic.

As others have pointed out, though, relying on numbers from someone like that is not a wise thing to do. I just like checking them against Bloomberg's and my own estimates/hunches.

Just FYI I think I read on Twitter someplace that the Tesla short shabooska or whatever claims he gets his info from someone inside the factory. Keep in mind this is just his claim and he is a definite short on TSLA. I am long Tesla and quite happy about it today.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Bla...bla....bla.....all this talk about how much money you made, but it's good to remember what's best in life:
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.
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[Words of HABIT]

I'm thinking TSLA has room to run. This is what explosive growth looks like (graph TSLA '13). At the time it appeared Tesla was going Bankwupt! Then their first fully design car, Model S, won coveted Car of the Year Award, sales took off and BOOM!

Very similar scenario this time around. Model 3 is so much better than I could ever have imagined, and much more profitable. BOOM BOOM!! I'm not even thinking of selling at these prices.

Just wait until Tesla Energy ramps up, potentially creating more revenue then their auto division. BOOM BOOM BOOM!! This is a years play. Warren Buffett strategy to generate wealth: invest in what you know, buy in, and stay in. Time and Patience.

Now I'm going out for a drive in my M3 to top off a great day! Looking forward to tomorrow.
Cheers!
Daniel