TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

Funding is secured and only a vote remains. Why would anyone vote no when you can keep your shares? It's a done deal.

Huge spike over 400 tomorrow in my opinion. And that's without even considering the short covering.. what are they to do?

 

[ezevphl]

So it seems to be dropping a bit after hours. Am I missing something obvious about a free $45 per share (420-375), or is there any significant risk of this being voted down?

 

[Bobbyducati]

these after hour prices are super tempting....

 

[mongo]

So if a particular stock gaps up significantly in price, what is the incentive for the borrower not defaulting on their loan and thus losing the collateral but not having to pay the much higher gap-up price?

I.e., hypothetically, if TSLA price spikes up to $1,000+, we are talking about 40+ billion dollars of short losses here. Can the borrowers (shorts and their brokers) simply 'default' on the last collateral they posted and thus reduce their losses to the current approximately ~4 billion? That's a 36 billion dollars question, so I'm wondering what the small print is there.

That is why there are margin requirements, so the broker always has more of your money than you owe.

 

[Unpilot]

So it seems to be dropping a bit after hours. Am I missing something obvious about a free $45 per share (420-375), or is there any significant risk of this being voted down?

You and me both?!?

 

[The Blue Owl]

So, uhm, I hold a bunch of $475 Jan19 calls. How screwed am I?

(And do we even have all the necessary info to evaluate how screwed I am?)

I owned some June 2019 $420 calls. Earlier in the day, after the Saudi news, they briefly traded for about $42. I exited after the taking private news at $32. They last traded at $27.25. The actual stock price is higher now than it was earlier when I sold.

So that is a nice illustration of the rate at which the time value of long-date contracts is deflating. The more the market believes this deal is happening, the faster the time value will drop. OTM options are pure time value, so they are a hot potato.

 

[uselesslogin]

So it seems to be dropping a bit after hours. Am I missing something obvious about a free $45 per share (420-375), or is there any significant risk of this being voted down?

It seems like there are no shares available to short at IB. Is it possible the shorts are so incredibly delusional they think this is all fake and they are making it worse for themselves? This is really interesting. I just hate there are so many unanswered questions with regards to keeping my shares in the private company.

 

[Bobbyducati]

i want to go all in, but im worried this is too good to be true...

 

[Mkorpal]

So it seems to be dropping a bit after hours. Am I missing something obvious about a free $45 per share (420-375), or is there any significant risk of this being voted down?

I think with as much uncertainty that still exists, some are simply happy to take some good profits.

 

[Ulmo]

I’m going need to take a loan out to excercise all of my DITM calls

You could sell them at their market rate, too, to other people buying them. Just one option to consider.

 

[MP3Mike]

Why would anyone vote no when you can keep your shares?

Maybe because, it destroys OTM calls? Not every investor is in 100% shares.

 

[schonelucht]

They were just talking about this on CNBC. Apparently mutual funds cannot be in private funds.

Ok that means the shorts’ losses are capped since they’ll be able to buy enough from them. It’s actually super bulls with high strike calls that will eat the biggest losses. How about convertible bonds > $420?

 

[Mike Smith]

So it seems to be dropping a bit after hours. Am I missing something obvious about a free $45 per share (420-375), or is there any significant risk of this being voted down?

Shorts always try to make news seem bad in the off markets. Trying to raise doubts.

 

[Mike Smith]

Sounds to me like Saudi Arabia wants to take a huge stake in Tesla to help diversify away from oil. Remember they're only selling a small stake in Aramco.

 

[neroden]

Elon:

Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote.

I am quite sure the only reason the vote would fail is if the stock price quickly goes WAY higher than $420.

Obviously if the going price is way above $420, nobody would want to take the tender offer, but also many investors would rather keep public shares at high liquidity than private shares with low liquidity. A number of funds may not be *allowed* to hang on to private equity, and they could vote no if they think Tesla has a great future. Index funds will happily get cashed out, but couldn't hold private equity, and would be very unhappy to get cashed out at $420 if the going price was way above that.

 

[davecolene0606]

Got a feelin that as it,was rocketing through 385 we will see that shorts dumped everything at it in the ridiculous hope that this really is some kinda fraud.

#turnthosemachinesbackon!

Fire Away!

 

[Toolsmack]

I got more at $378 but I honestly don’t know if that was smart or not. Seems to good to be true, which my gut fought for hours today.......but I’d rather gamble on musk than on the shorts

 

[Bobbyducati]

F it, picked up another 25 shares at 376

 

[BenPrice]

Worst time to have no cash

Enjoy y’all. You’ve earned it.

 

[Nate the Great]

God what do I do with my leaps?

You may need to let them assign for stock. You will probably be on margin after that, and need to sell a portion to get out of margin.