TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachShahan]

Sorry, there's actually nothing new here. Just more FUD. Unfortunate to see Dana Hull on the dark side these days. Here's the core text:


Mod: edited to remove copyright content. Zach, you should know better than this. --ggr.

Ah, is that why people don't paste stuff in here? Figured it was fine in a forum. My bad.

 

[jelloslug]

SEC broadened the probe. Reports that the probe actually pre-dates the tweets. Anonymous Tesla employees are confirming the probe and investigation.

I'm guessing that the Tweets expanded awareness within the SEC, which is now leaking between enforcement and other departments.

I need to repeat this over and over: Elon Musk is not infallible.

Manage risk responsibly. You're now invested in a company under SEC investigation.

Sorry kiddo, this one has already been posted.

 

[Vad42]

"Boring" question that has been on my mind lately....

If the private deal goes through, can he easily fold Boring Company into Tesla? Would it make sense? Would the combined entity make it more profitable for private investors longer term?

There's certainly some synergy (more than with SpaceX) as the plan is to have TSLA design all pods and drivetrains for tunnel scates. Thoughts?

 

[Moderatefan]

From what I've read, the 2000 limit on # of ppl, plus having to be an accredited investor

Didn't he say he wants *all* investors to stay?
2000 in my mind differs significantly from all.

 

[ckessel]

I've got a batch of DITM Jan 2020 options, strike of $185. I'm debating selling the and repurchasing something that expires in, say, December since if the deal goes through any time value beyond the deal closing is pointless. But the difference in price, if I stuck at the same strike, isn't all that large. About $9, and with the ask/bid price differential, the benefit to convert gets pretty slim. Presumably because time values have gone to snot.

I could try purchasing a strike much closer to ITM to increase leverage I suppose.

 

[Boomer19]

Is an 8k necessary if the board receives and offer and rejects it? (Or is still in the process of reviewing it?) As I see it Elon wasn't acting as a agent/representative of Tesla when he made that statement, he was acting as a representative of the "group" that is contemplating a buy-out of Tesla.

I.e. if I make an offer to buy Tesla out at $415 and the board laughs at me do they have to file an 8k and tell the world?

i expect an 8k
https://www.sec.gov/files/form8-k.pdf

followed by an S4 at some point, which will detail the exchange offer
https://www.sec.gov/files/forms-4.pdf

some people i’ve talked to (that handle regulatory reporting for public companies)
weren’t convinced an 8k was needed yet
..they said a handshake agreement between em and a funding party isn’t yet “entry into a material definitive agreement”
but i dunno.
there’s other items to be included on 8k that may require a filing. i guess it depends on what is really going on behind the scene (obv we don’t know).

 

[Reality]

We're getting into "bug dust" level stuff, but there may be distinctions between what is appropriate/ advisable for SEC's quarterly filings and CPA's standards for audited annual statements.

Not sure how it is bug dust but would like to hear your take


Subsequent events fall under ASC 855 (I think), I was trying to make it easier to read but the concept of disclosing material information that occurs post balance sheet date and pre issue date is definitely a requirement per GAAP

 

[Ulmo]

So here's a copy-paste of what I wrote on Electrek:

I cannot think of a quicker, or wider, form of communication than an Elon Musk tweet... every investor, every short, every bull and bear is following closely.

What did they do in the old days? Send a circular memo to brokers and ask them to call around the shareholders? An ad in the papers?

Seems extremely efficient and even-handed to me.

If anything, the shorts should be happy as Elon may have limited their losses with the $420 offer. Otherwise the squeeze was definitely on, you saw how the SP popped with the news if the SA investment - which was before Elon’s tweet.

Agreed on all points.

Also, may I point out that the shorts are most interested in depressing the price so they can unroll their bad shorts? They are spreading FUD that OTHER shorts will fall for, so that the FUDsters can sell sell sell. Chanos and Speagle-types will go on the record as saying "I AM DOUBLING DOWN!!!" when in fact they are ready to buy buy buy ...

We've been seeing lots of examples of this tactic recently from the Democrats, rules of Saul Alinsky (communist propagandist): always blame the other side of that thing which you are doing.

This is creating a great buying opportunity for us and the going-private secured investors. They'll have nothing left to buy, at this rate ... 176,258,363 shares were bought since July 23 inclusive, with ~68,105,768 shares (we know of) bought since the considering going private announcement, out of 170 million shares. In other words, the whole shares of the entire company already changed hands in the last 3 weeks. And a large private investor quietly buying won't try to get in the way of any FUDsters trying to push price down, especially if the alternative is paying an agreed upon set buyout price that's much higher, like exactly right now. If I were a short or a long right now, I'd be hitting buy buy buy (within my prudent available options).

 

[Jayjs20]

Didn't he say he wants *all* investors to stay?
2000 in my mind differs significantly from all.

Musk did say that, but then there was an article the other day from an 'expert' that claims investors of Tesla after it goes private have to be accredited investor. Still waiting to see what comes of it.

 

[wipster]

In all seriousness, I really hope no one is investing any amount they can't afford to lose. No matter which side you are on.

This is not normal, and volatility might be extreme either way

You've earned your board name! We all need to be aware of reality.

 

[MikeC]

I've got a batch of DITM Jan 2020 options, strike of $185. I'm debating selling the and repurchasing something that expires in, say, December since if the deal goes through any time value beyond the deal closing is pointless. But the difference in price, if I stuck at the same strike, isn't all that large. About $9, and with the ask/bid price differential, the benefit to convert gets pretty slim. Presumably because time values have gone to snot.

I could try purchasing a strike much closer to ITM to increase leverage I suppose.

Assuming your goal is to take shares private, why not sell and buy shares? They’re already at a 20% discount to 420.

 

[gringotuanis]

Take out of RRSP 10 yearly salaries!?!? Seriously?

This was a dumb comment by someone who appears to have no clue on taxes or ramifications in the US

Didn't he say he wants *all* investors to stay?
2000 in my mind differs significantly from all.

He said that but from what I understand this has never been done on this scale with this many investors. My concern is not doubting Musk's desire, my concern is the SEC not allowing it. There's a reason public companies have to file all the reports of disclosure and make things clear to the investors. By going private Musk wouldn't have to do that, but there's more risk to *all* investors because it would be much easier to hide issues. Don't get me wrong, if they're going private, I want to be a part of it but the SEC being a government agency and having a mandate to protect ppl will make this unique. I hope Tesla, Musk, the large private investors and the SEC can pull it off because it would be great for us small guys to be able to take advantage of offerings like this. (Not invesment advice, I just have a busobusi degree and am long TSLA thru stock and call options.

 

[oneday]

Really considering leveraging up a bunch of my calls here. Debating about waiting for tomorrow and what time horizon. Decisions decisions.

Edit: crunched some numbers, happy where I'm at for now. Will see what tomorrow brings.

 

[Unpilot]

Didn't he say he wants *all* investors to stay?
2000 in my mind differs significantly from all.

In order to remove the leach that is Wall st from his back he may not be able to keep us small investors around.
Watching the convulsions on the "reporting" end of that leech (CNBC et. all)makes one understand how sick these people are. They who create nothing and spout outright lies couched as interviews and reporting can't stand that he will not kneel before them.

I say screw them.

 

[Curt Renz]

Yep everyone talks about their excitement of Tesla going private...but you have to realize we as retail investors may not be allowed to follow. From what I've read, the 2000 limit on # of ppl, plus having to be an accredited investor (net worth over $1 million and $200k annual income if single) will flush out alot of the retail investors.

Didn't he say he wants *all* investors to stay?
2000 in my mind differs significantly from all.

Elon proposed a "special purpose fund enabling anyone to stay with Tesla."

 

[MP3Mike]

i expect an 8k
https://www.sec.gov/files/form8-k.pdf

followed by an S4 at some point, which will detail the exchange offer
https://www.sec.gov/files/forms-4.pdf

some people i’ve talked to (that handle regulatory reporting for public companies)
weren’t convinced an 8k was needed yet
..they said a handshake agreement between em and a funding party isn’t yet “entry into a material definitive agreement”
but i dunno.
there’s other items to be included on 8k that may require a filing. i guess it depends on what is really going on behind the scene (obv we don’t know).

But from what we have seen Tesla/the board hasn't entered into an agreement yet. So there is no need to file an 8k.

Or are you saying that Elon is not allowed to conduct non-Tesla business. (Obviously he can as he conducts business as SpaceX/The Boring Company/Neuralink/etc. as well as Tesla.) So I assume he can conduct business personally which is what he has done in "securing funding".

 

[Tslynk67]

Sorry, there's actually nothing new here. Just more FUD. Unfortunate to see Dana Hull on the dark side these days. Here's the core text:


Mod: edited to remove copyright content. Zach, you should know better than this. --ggr.

Yeah, Zach!

Anyway, just another nail in the public coffin for Elon, this is the crap he wants to be rid of.

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon proposed a "special purpose fund enabling anyone to stay with Tesla."

View attachment 324510

 

[ZeApelido]

Notice some of the small time shorties have bailed on their short positions (on Seeking Alpha - Montana Skeptic, Anton, Paulo, Bill Maurer).

For the rest of your shorties, please please hold on to your positions. Nothing bad is going to happen. I promise! At worst you'll lose only ~10%, no biggie!

 

[gringotuanis]

Take out of RRSP 10 yearly salaries!?!? Seriously?

This was a dumb comment by someone who appears to have no clue on taxes or ramifications in the US

Yes, this is a great opportunity to learn of one's fear vs greed limits.

I am thus reminded of an autumn climb I did on Matterhorn (where weather forced me down before the summit)...
Since I am all in as of this week and would need to discuss a buy on margin with my spouse, I think I will have to back down also this time.

In my errors and greed I took out a HELOC and bought shares and options about 2 months ago. I paid most of it off now as wife wasn't happy when Tesla was below $300 per share. This week wife was happy w Tesla so I put myself back in doghouse with the HELOC again and bought more! And awesomely she is not that upset about it after seeing what's happened lately. (Rookies dont follow me, you don't know how much I did/didn't leverage)....but why pay 10 percent to the broker when the HELOC is way lower folks? If you're gonna put yourself at risk w debt at least be smart about it...
(Long options and stock)