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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I get your frustration, but if you haven’t sold the $355 shares, then don’t. Consider this... Last year, about this time. I bought several hundred shares at around $355. Things immediately went south fast and I was not happy either. I can’t even remember the reason why. It went down below 300 and after some upbeat news it eventually crawled back to the 350’s. At this point, I expected it to keep going, but then the FUD of the day drove it down below 300 in quick order. Over the last year, it did this five times. Every time it surged past my entry price of 355, I considered selling my shares in anticipation of the next catastrophe that would drive the stock below 300, but I decided to not sell on the chance we might finally get that breakout to 400. On this last one, I recognized the pattern and sold all my shares at 370 when it started dropping from 380. I just bought in at a larger share at 310.

Long story short, I have seen all this before, there is always some catastrophe that hits when the stock nears the all time high. Hang tight with those shares. Despite the extreme volatility, the company is growing and all the manufactured FUD aside, there is a bright future for it.
I wish I were as smart as you. When I see it happening I just can't sell.
 
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Muck Muck. What is that anyway... The noise a filthy chicken makes?
I don't think the view that Elon intentionally went to the NYT in full knowledge of getting a hit piece is accurate: he had a similar interview before where he got emotional, which interview turned out fine. A professional journalist will not abuse such moments and take them out of context to create bias.

By giving the NYT an interview he indeed entered hostile territory, but I think he misjudged David Gelles who is the main author of the article, a journalist who hasn't written a biased Tesla piece before. Look at the track record of David Gelles:

David Gelles

His last article that even mentioned Tesla was a year ago, and had a passing reference to Tesla that was positive:

Complex Car Software Becomes the Weak Spot Under the Hood

'Tesla has hired a new security chief from Google, who previously oversaw security for the Chrome web browser. And in early August, the company began offering $10,000 to outsiders who find security problems. (It had been giving $1,000.) “We are hiring!” the automaker wrote on a whiteboard at Def Con, a premier computer hackers’ conference in Las Vegas, in announcing the prize.'

'At the same conference, Tesla’s chief technology officer awarded the company’s commemorative “challenge coins” to two computer researchers. The researchers had revealed how to plug into the Tesla S computer system, unlock the sedan and stop the car under certain conditions — vulnerabilities that the company says are now patched.'​

So I think Elon went to the NYT in the hope of getting an interview like the Wired one - and hoped that by giving an exclusive interview he'd get a better piece than the Wired one. He also picked a journalist who seemed neutral and professional, who worked for the FT before, and who has written factually positive comments about Tesla in his last article that criticised other carmakers.

He was wrong: the negative emotions and honesty was used against him - and from the wording I suspect some of the quotes were actually Elon jokes taken out of context.



I too think the tweet was an intentional reaction to the Saudi news.

But note what the Saudi news was about: it was about the Saudis acquiring 3-5% of Tesla despite Elon refusing them twice. The Saudis have the cash to make an instant hostile buyout bid for Tesla - I suspect the only reason they haven't done that when the price was $250 is because they know that Elon is key to Tesla.

In that context the $420 tweet caused a further spike in the price, effectively locking the Saudis out of acquiring more of Tesla via the open market without a heavy mark-up. I believe that was Elon's intention with the $420 tweet: to inform and to rally other investors to counter-balance the Saudis.

In that sense the NYT article had the opposite effect - which IMO further weakens the notion that this is part of some sort of effort to "manage" the stock price.

BTW., I'm not sure we should attribute yesterday's drop to the NYT article alone, there was also this news item:

Tesla stock slides 9% amid reports that Elon Musk and board will meet with SEC next week

"The upcoming meeting with the SEC will reportedly be focused on how Musk announced and handled the aftermath of his tweet last week, when he stated that funding was “secured” for Tesla’s possible privatization at $420 per share"
Has anyone seen this confirmed independently, or is this just something that crawled up the TSLA-short sewers?

Great insight concerning the 420 counter move against the Saudi purchase.

Once the subpoena issue becomes irrelevant , the stock should recover substantially .

Elon’s mental state is super stable , the aug 15 interview confirms it.
 
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This is also my theory. Elon is in special forces mode right now, best outcome for company would be going private. Had to know the times would do a hit job. He's taking one for the team/tesla. Credibility will take a hit but if tsla is privatized it's worth it.
Nope, he's just naive.
His technological, visionary, systems-building strength does not extend to understanding individuals, nor to the emotional maturity. This is far from the first highly emotional interview, this time he just walked into a trap. NYT did a decent interview some 6-12 months ago where he said "I will never be alone again" through tears about breakup with Amber. NYT was fair that time, sympathetic even, didn't turn it into a hit piece, but it was eye opening to me in terms of Elon's fragilities. Perhaps that's what made him trust NYT again, incorrectly this time.

Deifying Elon and ascribing all his actions to master plan is the wrong thing to do.
Better way forward is to understand when he makes a mistake, and either 1. bat the hatches, or 2. bring more money into play if you can, as his blunder(s) create price dislocation (miss-pricing) opportunities.
 
The sheer blizzard of lies, innuendo, bias, and hatred of all things Musk, is really starting to reach some kind of crescendo.
I do not believe that the false and misleading narratives to bash Tesla and Elon Musk, the manufacture of hateful and destructive articles, along with tv discussion segments on CNBC, etc, will disappear when the company goes private, but they will be decoupled from stock manipulations, and that makes a big difference.

And lets clarify something here: there are short sellers and options traders who play TSLA for profit. Standard short-sellers are in fact looking for a profitable return on their market actions directly. But a significant segment of TSLA shorts, as we now can clearly understand, are not in fact interested in directly profiting from short-selling activities in the market. In fact, just as Elon Musk is not in the market to make short term profits on share trading, so these shorts are not interested in profits on the trading itself. Elon's goals are "about more than just the money," so, in a way, are the goals of these "shorts."

While Elon's mission for Tesla is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and transport for all humanity, the mission of these particular shorts is to destroy or at least to inhibit Tesla and Elon to the maximum extent possible. Through the observation and study of these players, aided immensely by the excellent analysis in jesselivenomore's thread, and Matt Taibbi's book, of the motivations and historical activities of shorts like Jim Chanos, we have come to understand that for these particular players shorting the company is a tool deployed to degrade and destroy a company. Their "investment" in this tool, as supported by the Koch brothers, and others, means billions in near-term losses would be acceptable in pursuit of the larger goal: to protect current and future profits (and political dominance) of the fossil fuel industry and associated international mafias (e.g. Russian, Koch bros, etc).

Therefore we should not for a moment think that the fight to defeat Tesla will stop when the company goes private. However, the steady stream of misinformation is not nearly as effective if it is not carefully timed and coordinated with short selling activities. As Tesla has succeeded this has been more and more in evidence recently. It is easy to observe how often the release of some particular FUD hit piece, or financial "analyst's" price targets, is accompanied by a massive dump of shares designed to draw down the price and appear to be the "market" reacting to the latest FUD. Of course, then the other players in the market DO react, and the trend is created, or inhibited, as the case may be. Going private for TSLA simply eliminates these tools for market mischief, and breaks the ablity to link share price manipulation directly to the output of the FUD machine.
 
Wrong response. We should mod away the nonsense. The worst thing to do is disperse a positive community that provides a counter to the noise.
I worked as a critical care nurse for a few years (many years ago) and everyday I dealt with real crises where actual lives were on the line so as long as no one is dying I can take most horrible events in stride, but everyone can only take so much turmoil and negativity before they crack. There is nothing wrong with stepping away. The trolls do it all the time. We continue to see new people come here so the investor forum isn't going away. There will be new Bulls, new Bears and of course a swarm of new trolls to feed on all our carcasses. Life goes on. But people need to tend to their own sanity first. If people are just venting that is good, but can we have a venting thread so this one isn't clogged up and I don't have to start putting people on ignore who I normally love reading their posts.

In a week or two or 10 we will think how could anyone believe any of the crap that was being pushed against TSLA and Elon.

I'm Long and plan to remain so. Bought 500 more shares just before the second dip yesterday so no one should trust me on timing stock moves.
 
Kate Kelly, another of the authors of that NYT hit piece

39443006_10157746426687729_6183957955038150656_n.jpg
 
  • 08.18.18 07:00 AM
ELON MUSK IS BROKEN, AND WE HAVE BROKEN HIM
Elon Musk Is Broken, and We Have Broken Him

"On the surface, the implication—nobody else can do this—is nonsense. Lots of people could run Tesla. Starting with the hundreds of capable executives at the world’s automakers, most of which are larger, more efficient, and more profitable than Tesla."

AND this is why we have SO MANY competitors to the Tesla vehicles since they started production in 2008. Especially since 2012 when they started the Model S. Only 6 years in and look at all the competitors as Model S takes 25-50% market shares depending on where and how you divide up the market niche of Model S luxury sedan. For get about Model X and Model 3. </sarcasm>

Even WIRED has to get in on the Tesla/Elon bashing?? WTF
Excuse me for calling this author a moron. sorry. He seems paid by the Koch boys.
My best explanation for his concerns for Tesla profits and "Elon's health".
I didn’t find that article so negative.
 
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selling J20 $420 puts
So you are shifting the cash into your account to cover the sale of J20 puts then? I'm still trying to figure out how much cash I need to keep on hand per put as well as whether or not the cash can be invested in stock or if it needs to be in cash. I think that may vary depending upon the brokerage. You mentioned at one point that you need to keep 40-60% of the amount that would be needed to execute the put and purchase 100 shares of the stock at the put price. For $420s, you would need about $21,000 cash in the account per put sale then, right?
 
I dropped NYT today

I held on but then came close today when I open up the times to see this headline:

Investors Betting Against Tesla Made $1 Billion on Friday

I was hoping that this follow up article may have had at least a hint to the fact that many people found the interview article one sided, unfair, more spin than accurate reporting, but alas, there was no such thing.

So sad the Times is just so off on this.





 
So you are shifting the cash into your account to cover the sale of J20 puts then? I'm still trying to figure out how much cash I need to keep on hand per put as well as whether or not the cash can be invested in stock or if it needs to be in cash. I think that may vary depending upon the brokerage. You mentioned at one point that you need to keep 40-60% of the amount that would be needed to execute the put and purchase 100 shares of the stock at the put price. For $420s, you would need about $21,000 cash in the account per put sale then, right?
Yes, cash cover is necessary to sell naked puts.
Primer, TD Direct Canada:
1 J19 $440 put ties in $29675 of my cash (this is variable though, as price goes down/up!)
5 J19 $420 put tie in $123,460 if my cash, however, I own one J19 $300 put, which lowers my liability

I'll be selling J20's going forward, truth be told I thought I already did. Main reason I didn't is tax considerations for options selling in Canada, I like wrapping my gains and losses in the same year, hence J19 is better candidate, otherwise I end up subsidizing government, as proceeds of the option sale counts as gain (and buying back as loss)

BTW, owning options does nothing for margin, owning stock counts 50% as cash against margin.
 
Nope, he's just naive.
His technological, visionary, systems-building strength does not extend to understanding individuals, nor to the emotional maturity. This is far from the first highly emotional interview, this time he just walked into a trap. NYT did a decent interview some 6-12 months ago where he said "I will never be alone again" through tears about breakup with Amber. NYT was fair that time, sympathetic even, didn't turn it into a hit piece, but it was eye opening to me in terms of Elon's fragilities. Perhaps that's what made him trust NYT again, incorrectly this time.

Deifying Elon and ascribing all his actions to master plan is the wrong thing to do.
Better way forward is to understand when he makes a mistake, and either 1. bat the hatches, or 2. bring more money into play if you can, as his blunder(s) create price dislocation (miss-pricing) opportunities.
The "I never want to be alone" interview you are referring to was with the Rolling Stone.
 
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