It is certain that TSLA is volatile! Arguably that means that the best *short-term* bet on TSLA is to sell volatility, if you can find a way to so so. For example, sell an put well below the stock price (likely to expire). For a trickier example, set up a call spread well above the stock price, selling calls at a price likely to expire and buying calls at an even further-out price as insurance (because selling naked calls exposes you to unlimited losses). Make sure you have the capital to do this if you try this strategy, it's capital-heavy.It is impossible to predict what would have happened IF (insert other course of action that could have been taken by Elon).
The only thing that is quite certain with TSLA is that it's very volatile and therefore risky to bet on the short term. (That's why I'm not doing that again after burning my fingers on some 'gone wrong'-trades)
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I'm realizing that if you're short puts, you should be putting the extra months on the other side (shorter-term expirations than you think).
bdy0627
Active Member
I agree that $350 will be in the rearview camera by summer. Except TSLA doesn't do slow and steady.
3 Tesla news that can be market mover (imo) :
- News about Model 3 production rate increasing. Even if the 5000/w by end of Q2 is still the goal, the simple fact that the ramp is continuing will be good news. I'm sure any news about Model 3 reaching over 1500/w will be very positive.
- Important (medias) and substantial (in quantity) good reviews about Model 3
- Good Autopilot advancements
- News about Model 3 production rate increasing. Even if the 5000/w by end of Q2 is still the goal, the simple fact that the ramp is continuing will be good news. I'm sure any news about Model 3 reaching over 1500/w will be very positive.
- Important (medias) and substantial (in quantity) good reviews about Model 3
- Good Autopilot advancements
2virgule5
Member
Fully agree. Good reviews will come, little doubt about that at this point. Ramp will also continue.
Autopilot advancement is the must do on this list. Part of Tesla's valuation is in its software prowess and it's (perceived and somewhat contested) leadership in autonomous driving. AP, while very good for level 2, has been stalled more of less at the same level of capabilities for about 2 years now (small, incremental and welcome improvements yes, but nothing major). We know they've been working hard on setting the framework for more advanced capabilities, the big question is when are we going to see them. A double whopper of major software upgrade along with reaching the 2.5k/week at end of Q1 may be the trigger for a new ATH.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
An excellent article comparing AP with GM’s cruise.
The Battle for Best Semi-Autonomous System: Tesla Autopilot Vs. GM SuperCruise, Head-to-Head
Tl:dr:
Cruise is in some locations and in some ways better than the current version of AP, but GM doesn’t have a strategy to take advantage of it, plus they are hobbled by no OTA and their dealers.
Don’t forget that someday, probably this year, that TE income will be substantial.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think any M3 production ramp info, even if on surface disappointing like this Q4 delivery update, eventually removes uncertainty, and that would be good for the PPS in the long run. TSLA has been fluctuating as wildly as expectations of M3 ramp, and for a good reason. As we have a slower but steadier expectation now, I think the PPS will also go up, even if slower, but also steadier, and hopefully drive away some of the short term traders, and give longs more peace of mind. And as M3 production will eventually reach the target, so will the PPS.
I think it is impressive Tesla is so close. In my mind, they are choosing the harder, but more flexible and better approach in the long run.
Relying on a “mapped out ahead of time” system is a great crutch in the short term, but if Tesla can pull off an autopilot that can drive on a road it has never seen, they will win in the end.
bdy0627
Active Member
Agreed. As more certainty about the ramp and actual production numbers becomes evident, I think the stock will respond. I really think the stock price is becoming a better deal anywhere near this price level the further along we get with the ramp. Essentially, you are getting the substantial climb that is coming soon with less risk with each day that goes by. That's how I see it anyway.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
RationalOptimist
Member
Looks like a hedge fund manager just had his model 3 delivered over the w/e...! (btw, there's going to be a lot of this in the coming weeks. new Tesla owners smiting themselves across the forehead and going 'of course. the future. count me in.'
Thursday's recovery plus Friday's small gain and nice end of day set us up for this Monday first-hour run-up.
Gerardf
Active Member
Thumper
Active Member
This is the craziest stock. Who can guess what it will do day by day. Buy and hold here now up to 1/86,000 of the company. Yeah!
I think you had lots of longs waiting on the sidelines with the Q4 delivery reports, worried that the stock would drop. Thursday and Friday's action suggested that we had hit bottom and longs and some shorts have been buying in to take advantage of the expected 2018 gains for TSLA or to cover. I think fence sitters have finally started to believe it's okay to get off the fence.
Stock price change is inversely proportional to stridency of bear articles.
Maybe it's the constant drip-drip of good feedback regarding the M3's being delivered to non-employees, plus the realisation that the fundamentals haven't changed and barring a black-swan event it's game-over...
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