TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[scaesare]

The only positive I can think that FCH has over BEV is filling time, and even this will become more irrelevant over time as charging speeds increase.

What's more, H2 filling times aren't what they are cracked up to be. While fueling time is often quoted as 5-10 minutes, the reality is that's an ideal that won't be typical for a moderately busy station. Current stations used by cars for H2 have cycle time issues where the pressurization and cryo steps necessary can make the process far longer. (See the owner above who talks about this along with frequent outages).

I'd assume that the larger capacities of H2 needed by semi's would exacerbate this problem. There's every potential that this means either:

1) The time advantage as compared to Megacharging doesn't really exist in practice

or

2) The fueling infrastructure for cars would be inadequate for semis and in effect the infrastructure here is effectively non-existant still. (Logisitics may compound this.. are the H2 stations used by cars large enough to even practical to route a bunch of semis with trailers through ?)

 

[Ellec]

I agree, but given these calls expire October 19th losing one month of time value (=the month of August) it'll be hard to see my calls go green now.

I see, I had OTM J 2020 calls but managed to sell them a few mins after Elon's going private tweet so still made a profit. I then bought ITM calls assuming $420 was the potential ceiling. However, as time went on I decided to sell half of them and buy the very cheap OTM LEAPS again and got 8 times as many as I originally had plus my ITM options.

I would wait till the P&D numbers come out at the start of October, if they are good you options could bounce back, just my opinion though not advice.

 

[scaesare]

Yes, but I'm pretty sure he came to the 2 kWh/mile figure with a fully loaded 80,000 pounds max curb weight - while the average cargo mass is much lower, especially for shorter distance urban transports. Most transports are volume limited I believe.

So maybe not 0.5 kWh/mile but 1.0 kWh/mile?

Increases fuel costs to $6k/year, but that's not generated with a 100% margin so only a fraction would turn into energy revenue.

But nice solar and storage sales I'd agree, as big trucking companies would strive to own their own "oil fields, refineries and gas stations", which solar+storage would be equivalent of.

The Model X towing moderate sized trailers have seen energy usages in the 600-800kWh/mi range.

While the semi has an impressive Cd, it's CdA is still greater than the X. An the trailers are taller, and the overall weight will still be greater. Which implies greater rolling resistance as well.

Even for non-fully loaded scenarios I think even 1kWh/mi is too low. I'd imagine approaching 1.25+ kWh/mi to be more likely.

 

[priscila]

I am in with 40'000$ at 355$ as I believed that Musk (the "maker") would do everything to take his baby private.

Well, I overestimated him. However, what would you guys recommend me to do? I am currently sitting on a 6'000$ loss and its quite painful. I am afraid of the stock going further down to the 250$ area (funding of the debt, capital rises?)

How likely is the chance that the stock will rise to 355$ again so I can sell it and leave with a blue eye?

Thanks!

 

[SteveG3]

If I was on VW's management board, I'd be looking to buy Panasonic. I think Tesla should, and quickly, before somebody else tries.

Interesting point thinking about Panasonic. I’m not so clear on exactly what value is in Tesla in batteries vs Panasonic, but, would seem they both have quite a lot now. Pano would seem to have attractive strategic value to a number of groups... like Saudis. Hope Tesla’s contracts with Panasonic are set up to weather well such a buyout.

Further discussion re Tesla/other automaker, Pano potentially being bought out,... probably could use a new thread... something like “Potential Future Automaker and/or Battery Supplier Tie Ups”

 

[Ellec]

The Model X towing moderate sized trailers have seen energy usages in the 600-800kWh/mi range.

While the semi has an impressive Cd, it's CdA is still greater than the X. An the trailers are taller, and the overall weight will still be greater. Which implies greater rolling resistance as well.

Even for non-fully loaded scenarios I think even 1kWh/mi is too low. I'd imagine approaching 1.25+ kWh/mi to be more likely.

Can we take the non-market chat somewhere else, please.

 

[bdy0627]

Looks like the OTM LEAPs have already corrected upwards a bunch. J20 $550 is up 75%. Congrats to those who bought those options on the cheap after the privatization tweet.

 

[defc0n]

Wtf Robinhood not working for me

 

[jeewee3000]

A couple of thoughts:

• October 1-2 is the likely release date of the Q3 delivery numbers. This has speculative value in terms of trading an economic surprise. You could trade that event, or sell the day before, priced on expectations.
  
• You only lost about 14 trading days worth of time value, 40 trading days still remain until end of Oct 19. So while the relationship is not strictly linear, going from 54 days to 40 days of expiry is an about 25% time value loss - a bit higher if the strike price is deep out of the money and the current linear stock price levels are just outside ~2 standard deviations of historic TSLA volatility over that time period.

I'd definitely wait until end of this week: it's 5 more days, only 12% of the remaining time 'spent'. Maybe even more if things look up by that time. "Not doing anything" is one of the hardest, yet often most profitable things to do. (When not trading on margin and leverage that is ...)

Not advice.

I see, I had OTM J 2020 calls but managed to sell them a few mins after Elon's going private tweet so still made a profit. I then bought ITM calls assuming $420 was the potential ceiling. However, as time went on I decided to sell half of them and buy the very cheap OTM LEAPS again and got 8 times as many as I originally had plus my ITM options.

I would wait till the P&D numbers come out at the start of October, if they are good you options could bounce back, just my opinion though not advice.

Never got so much advice that isn't an advice .

Just kidding of course, thanks for the input, people. I appreciate the comments.

 

[SebastianR]

I am in with 40'000$ at 355$ as I believed that Musk (the "maker") would do everything to take his baby private.

Well, I overestimated him. However, what would you guys recommend me to do? I am currently sitting on a 6'000$ loss and its quite painful. I am afraid of the stock going further down to the 250$ area (funding of the debt, capital rises?)

How likely is the chance that the stock will rise to 355$ again so I can sell it and leave with a blue eye?

Thanks!

If you are serious: don't worry all will be well. (and a piece of general advice: understand risks and rewards before you invest). But again, all will be fine.

If you are concern trolling: just go away already! You know TSLA will go up quite a bit after Q3/Q4 earnings are public.

EDIT: Looking dramatically better in the opening today than I anticipated. Might of course still go down later (ha! of course!) but so far it is a much better opening than I thought it would be.

 

[defc0n]

Wtf Robinhood not working for me

So lame I tried to buy earlier

 

[Navin]

Tomorrow will be fun. Regardless of where the day starts. I think we end up green. I’ll personally be buying OTM Jan 2020 calls. Those puppies are depressed given 420 stock price on go private. Trade em well. Do your own DD.

LOL

 

[Ellec]

Looks like the OTM LEAPs have already corrected upwards a bunch. J20 $550 is up 75%. Congrats to those who bought those options on the cheap after the privatization tweet.

Yep my calls are exploding in value even though price is around the same.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yep my calls are exploding in value even though price is around the same.

And note that TSLA stock price might follow options price in the coming days, as market-makers increase their TSLA inventory on the increasing probability that those calls might be exercised in the future.

(Assuming no disruptive event happens, etc.)

 

[tivoboy]

I am in with 40'000$ at 355$ as I believed that Musk (the "maker") would do everything to take his baby private.

Well, I overestimated him. However, what would you guys recommend me to do? I am currently sitting on a 6'000$ loss and its quite painful. I am afraid of the stock going further down to the 250$ area (funding of the debt, capital rises?)

How likely is the chance that the stock will rise to 355$ again so I can sell it and leave with a blue eye?

Thanks!

It will most likely be lower before we get back up over 355$. sorry.

 

[Tslynk67]

What's more, H2 filling times aren't what they are cracked up to be. While fueling time is often quoted as 5-10 minutes, the reality is that's an ideal that won't be typical for a moderately busy station. Current stations used by cars for H2 have cycle time issues where the pressurization and cryo steps necessary can make the process far longer. (See the owner above who talks about this along with frequent outages).

I'd assume that the larger capacities of H2 needed by semi's would exacerbate this problem. There's every potential that this means either:

1) The time advantage as compared to Megacharging doesn't really exist in practice

or

2) The fueling infrastructure for cars would be inadequate for semis and in effect the infrastructure here is effectively non-existant still. (Logisitics may compound this.. are the H2 stations used by cars large enough to even practical to route a bunch of semis with trailers through ?)

Wow, I didn't realise this, so basically zero arguments for FCH other than the perpetuation oil model and servicing costs for dealers...

Basically it's a scam.

 

[Tslynk67]

I am in with 40'000$ at 355$ as I believed that Musk (the "maker") would do everything to take his baby private.

Well, I overestimated him. However, what would you guys recommend me to do? I am currently sitting on a 6'000$ loss and its quite painful. I am afraid of the stock going further down to the 250$ area (funding of the debt, capital rises?)

How likely is the chance that the stock will rise to 355$ again so I can sell it and leave with a blue eye?

Thanks!

Well given that the privatisation would have taken 3-6 months, you've plenty of time for the SP to swing around.

In any case, I have no sympathy for you as you've clearly no interest in the company or the mission.

 

[winfield100]

did someone sell around 200,000 then someone else buy around 600,000 shares upon opening, then sell 100,000? i'm a newbie at some things

 

[mekberg]

It's interesting that we're trading below levels prior to The Tweet when all indications point to the Model 3 ramp progressing nicely and thus stronger fundamentals.

 

[WentOffGrid]

Found some dry powder under the mattress
Can't...… wait..... too... excited.....
Normally I wait for the morning dip