TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sdtslafan]

If Elon doesn’t learn to STFU there will be more people leaving. It’s not about being right, Elon! It’s about focus and not giving shorts ammo to grind your followers/believers down! Personally, im pissed that we’ve lost a long term believer. This was a 2014 member and not a recent investor. I understand losing weaker longs, but this was not one of them. The recent erratic believer is inexcusable, how many more times do we have to watch this? After we’re profitable Elon can run his mouth as much as he wants, but not now damnit, not when you’ve made so many massive mistakes.

Thank you for helping me make my point. I don’t mind buying back the shares I sold at 308 back at 325 as long as Tesla and Elon start to show maturity in how they tackle non-engineering problems facing the company.

I Gave this example to my wife. President Trump, the biggest bully on the planet, has come after Jeff Bezos and Amazon several times. Jeff Bezos has never even acknowledged these attacks or replied As far as I know. He showed inner strength that not even Trump could break. Imagine if Elon showed the same maturity. Amazon’s share price has been unstoppable as you all know. I remember when amazon and Tesla were both in the 200s. Think about that, you could have had 10 times your money if you chose amazon over Tesla.

Many people on this forum are risking six and seven figure sums of hard earned money on this man, some even eight figures. You should be absolutely furious, as am I. Take a wild guess where the stock would be after the Saudi investment went public if Elon had been disciplined, much much higher than 305. Probably 400.

Don’t let this go, you shouldn’t. It’s ridiculous to say that with Elon you have to take the good with the bad. You should be rewarded for the high risk you are taking by share price appreciation. The risk is the price you pay. Elon has no right to be so careless with your investment.

 

[gringotuanis]

Actually the numbers were quite ok. No different in error than 2016 election - about 2% off. But the problem was it was in the opposite direction and Trump won EC after losing popular vote by 2%.

The Polls Are All Right

This is definitely not a market thread but if you paid attention to the polls around the election they were totally rigged. They showed him down by a ton, then as the election got closer they would mahicallm correct. The reason you know some were biased is that some polling was accurate and showed it consistently. The media tries to "fix" their polls as it gets closer to election day so they don't seem so far off. They're trying to manipulate your vote.

 

[gringotuanis]

It's not about the ****ing stock!!! It's about moving the world onto sustainable transportation. Re-read the mission statement please.

It is always about the stock since this is the market thread!

 

[gringotuanis]

You got that completely wrong IMHO. He was very classy up to the moment this guy told him to shove the submarine up his a**.



We all witnessed how reliable were those numbers. After all- he was supposed to lose heavily, wasn't he?



To be fair, a lot of action was happening in the big stocks (AMZN/GOOG were upgraded today).

Elon musk classy? What planet are you on? Lol. I know few ppl who would react like he does.

 

[JRP3]

Don’t let this go, you shouldn’t. It’s ridiculous to say that with Elon you have to take the good with the bad.

I'm sure people closer to Elon and with much more influence than us have tried to get him to change his ways. People probably tried the same with Steve Jobs. I've been unhappy about some of Elon's moves since the beginning, I expect that will continue at various times.

 

[MP3Mike]

We need some good news...will they publish August production/delivery most. in first week of Sept. ?

@AK56 No, Telsa only releases production/delivery numbers once a quarter. So we won't get official numbers until 10/2 or 10/3.

Insideevs will release unofficial US delivery estimates for August in early September, probably on 9/3.

 

[JRP3]

I know few ppl who would react like he does.

Have you ever spent time on the internet?

 

[MikeC]

The Model 3 line is apparently being shown on factory tours now. Good sign for production.

 

[pz1975]

Waiting for Jan 2021 calls in November 2018
Will consider switching J 2019s to J 2021 on a pullback after next rally

Please reconsider the best timing for rolling forward LEAPs. The best time is when the stock price is high. Your message states that you would roll them forward on a pullback, but it would be better if you try to roll them forward when you think the SP is at a maximum.

To illustrate by example:

J19 $250 LEAPs are currently worth $75 and J20 $250 LEAPs are currently worth $100. So when the stock is low like now, you would be able to roll forward 10 J19 $250 LEAPs for 7.5 J20 $250 LEAPs (75/100 x 10). (I am using J20 for my example because J21's are not available of course but it serves the same purpose for illustration).

J19 $250 LEAPs were worth $130 a few weeks ago when the SP was at its recent high. At that time, J20 $250 LEAPs were worth $145. So if you rolled forward then, you would have been able to roll 10 J19 $250 LEAPs into 9 J20 $250 LEAPs (130/145 x 10).

Thus, you would have had an extra 1.5 J20 $250 LEAPs by rolling forward at a high vs. a low SP. Please consider this when executing your plan.

 

[Causalien]

Better. Here's video: (h/t Ingineerix)

Thank you very much.

 

[Causalien]

I agree that Elon should use far more discretion in his responses when people say petty things on Twitter, but I am not sure that his behavior will change.

It seems that several of his colleagues have already recommeded that he stop tweeting. He admitted in an interview that he should probably stop. And yet, Elon continues to tweet.

There’s one basic issue at play here: are Elon’s tweets simply a matter of him being too transparently honest about how he feels, or are they a sign of growing mental issues?

Based on last quarter’s conference call, and the Marques Brownlee video interview at the Tesla factory, I do not believe that Elon is having more issues than he has had in recent years. This is simply the way he is.

I don’t like these distracting tweet wars, but I think they are far less important than the trend in production numbers, delivery, and quality. Investors should stay focused, even if Elon appears distracted.

Elon is probably looking at actual cash flow positive and believe he is all set. The danger has passed.
However, this is the max q moment for his shareholders who does not have access to inside information and before the q3 release. It is probably prudent to exercise restraint on Elon's part to not cause further doubt. Recently, the shorts have been proven right in the no-go on take private. Right now, I bet there's a bunch of people wondering "Were the shorts right all along?"

Not sure if Elon understands the nuances of this. Or he does understand and he still went ahead and did it. In that case, the ego is just too much and is a side of him I have not considered before when I evaluate Tsla's management.

 

[mongo]

I Gave this example to my wife. President Trump, the biggest bully on the planet, has come after Jeff Bezos and Amazon several times. Jeff Bezos has never even acknowledged these attacks or replied As far as I know. He showed inner strength that not even Trump could break. Imagine if Elon showed the same maturity. Amazon’s share price has been unstoppable as you all know. I remember when amazon and Tesla were both in the 200s. Think about that, you could have had 10 times your money if you chose amazon over Tesla.

If you had bought TSLA below $30 you'ld have 10x your money also...
Tesla's position in its growth curve is an independent thing to Amazon's...
Not that Elon's twittering has anything to do with the Model 3 ramp, or Tesla's balance sheet.

Many people on this forum are risking six and seven figure sums of hard earned money on this man, some even eight figures. You should be absolutely furious, as am I. Take a wild guess where the stock would be after the Saudi investment went public if Elon had been disciplined, much much higher than 305. Probably 400.

Why should I be furious? If the stock was at $400, I still wouldn't be selling, so it doesn't matter to me.

Don’t let this go, you shouldn’t. It’s ridiculous to say that with Elon you have to take the good with the bad. You should be rewarded for the high risk you are taking by share price appreciation.The risk is the price you pay. Elon has no right to be so careless with your investment.

No. You choose to take on the risk or not. Going with Tesla has meant going with Elon since they were first listed. If you don't want to place money on that pairing, then don't. If one thinks a CEO is reckless, then leaving money in is carelessness on their part, but Elon has no obligation to bend to our opinion of what he should do.

Edit: risky loans provide higher interest rates as an incentive. Risky stocks are just risky, with no guarantee of return. I do not put TSLA in that category.

 

[TheMrX]

Youall realize that while you hang out here and pat each other on the back, Tesla and Elon are getting ravaged on Twitter and not just by Twitter trolls but also Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, NYT, pretty much every major news outlet. The reason is that there is no one to counter their trash. They do bad stuff and social media rains down praise while youall are debating KWh/mi. And how many gigafactories Tesla will make

Just take 20 minutes a day and counter some fud on Twitter. Act like there is this machine helping destroy the environment while youall huddle in fear on TMC. I get it, this is a nice comfy place to discuss your favorite thing. It's all safe and happy. But while you waste your time here, there to real damage being done to tesla and it's big oil interest and big auto that are winning and shaping the hearts and minds of those who have not made up their minds.

If you want Elon to stop going all in on shorts and pedophiles on Twitter, then get off your weak arses and get on Twitter and slay some damn trolls. You are wasting your time on TMC. Take 20 minutes and post 20 tweets a day, in about the time it takes you to just do one post on TMC, where 90% agree with 90% of what you say. You might as well be talking to a mirror. And I get it.. it's great when everyone agrees with you, it feels good. And shorts are going to come back at you with some dumb arse sh*t that is going to anger you. But harness that anger, let it focus your intellect and unleash your damn power. Your belief that we are wholesale f*cked without some change. Elon needs our help, he can't fight all the pedos on his own and if the stock price lately is any indication, we must stop the trolls before Elon wakes and picks up his phone.

One last tid bit. We can make a real difference on Twitter that we cannot make here. The wealth of knowledge here is unbelievable and we need to broader audience. Your just talking to a mirror here. Take 20 damn minutes out of your posting on TMC and redirect that energy and intellect to Twitter. It's a horrid place, but you can ignore the responses, because your audiences are those who's minds are still open. Not those that are paid shills or honest shorts what are just so far underwater that they don't now what to do, but make up crap. Counter that crap it it will damage the mission, period.

Ok, but why don't we organize ourselves better? I mean, I basically follow Elon, Option_Sniper and just recently added The electric roadtrip (papafox), Fred Lambert and Vincent.... So I just have the same level of confirmation bias on twitter that I have here.... and even if I would like to spread fact around Twitter I would waste a lot of time just to find what is useful to counter.

May I suggest :
1.) make a thread for this
2.) use the specific thread to spot FUDsters
3.) Then coordinate conterFUD

Example :
-Somebody spot an article/tweeter guy spreading false narrative about parking lots full of ''unsold'' M3.
- Said somebody flag the article/tweeter guy on the ''SPOT AND COUNTER FUD thread''
- Then we can all go to the said account and post THOUSANDS Of Cars Sitting On Lots Unsold!! | CleanTechnica <----Not a rickroll (geez that felt soooo good)

We could also use the said created thread to drop easy to use counterFUD links to make the operations more efficient.

In the last weeks/months (bassically since spring) I must not be the only one remarking that even here we've been attacked by fudster that always spread the same assertions. and I am not the one who started to say that we, Tesla and Elon are the target of an organized group that is trying to take TSLA down. BUT I've come to think that if this is a fight and that the enemy is organized, we should too!

So then, we could discuss in this thread about things like : did you also realized that we had an all time high in the end of june 2017 and that in june 2018, price rose in like 3 weeks from about/slightly under 300 to about 370? That we had a down (year bottom) in dec 2016 just like we had a down dec 2017? That SP rosed in first half of both sept 2016 and sept 2017 and felt sharply in the end of those two months of different years?That those movements are based on total different events but seem to be related into a cyclical price movement? ( ok, I know I'm a bit vague here but felt I should add market action content)

Edit : switched the 2016 and 2017 years regarding the year bottom (was in 2016)

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Sold most of my shares today. For many different reasons. Tesla is an awesome company with awesome products. I think it will eventually be successful but many hurdles to still overcome. Management has s spotty record and I have been giving them a benefit of the doubt but I think at this point in my life no reason to take excessive risk. Elon is a visionary.but is unreliable and unpredictable. I doubt that will change. Recent tweet was ridiculous. Thanks for all your advice over the years and best of luck. Peace out.

I think I'll lighten up to 70% soon for the same reasons you cite.

 

[SpudLime]

Youall realize that while you hang out here and pat each other on the back, Tesla and Elon are getting ravaged on Twitter and not just by Twitter trolls but also Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, NYT, pretty much every major news outlet. The reason is that there is no one to counter their trash. They do bad stuff and social media rains down praise while youall are debating KWh/mi. And how many gigafactories Tesla will make

Just take 20 minutes a day and counter some fud on Twitter. Act like there is this machine helping destroy the environment while youall huddle in fear on TMC. I get it, this is a nice comfy place to discuss your favorite thing. It's all safe and happy. But while you waste your time here, there to real damage being done to tesla and it's big oil interest and big auto that are winning and shaping the hearts and minds of those who have not made up their minds.

If you want Elon to stop going all in on shorts and pedophiles on Twitter, then get off your weak arses and get on Twitter and slay some damn trolls. You are wasting your time on TMC. Take 20 minutes and post 20 tweets a day, in about the time it takes you to just do one post on TMC, where 90% agree with 90% of what you say. You might as well be talking to a mirror. And I get it.. it's great when everyone agrees with you, it feels good. And shorts are going to come back at you with some dumb arse sh*t that is going to anger you. But harness that anger, let it focus your intellect and unleash your damn power. Your belief that we are wholesale f*cked without some change. Elon needs our help, he can't fight all the pedos on his own and if the stock price lately is any indication, we must stop the trolls before Elon wakes and picks up his phone.

One last tid bit. We can make a real difference on Twitter that we cannot make here. The wealth of knowledge here is unbelievable and we need to broader audience. Your just talking to a mirror here. Take 20 damn minutes out of your posting on TMC and redirect that energy and intellect to Twitter. It's a horrid place, but you can ignore the responses, because your audiences are those who's minds are still open. Not those that are paid shills or honest shorts what are just so far underwater that they don't now what to do, but make up crap. Counter that crap it it will damage the mission, period.

Hey hey. All 2 of my followers get inundated with positive Elon/Tesla stuff every day. I’m doing my part!

 

[sundaymorning]

Thank you for helping me make my point. I don’t mind buying back the shares I sold at 308 back at 325 as long as Tesla and Elon start to show maturity in how they tackle non-engineering problems facing the company.

I Gave this example to my wife. President Trump, the biggest bully on the planet, has come after Jeff Bezos and Amazon several times. Jeff Bezos has never even acknowledged these attacks or replied As far as I know. He showed inner strength that not even Trump could break. Imagine if Elon showed the same maturity. Amazon’s share price has been unstoppable as you all know. I remember when amazon and Tesla were both in the 200s. Think about that, you could have had 10 times your money if you chose amazon over Tesla.

Many people on this forum are risking six and seven figure sums of hard earned money on this man, some even eight figures. You should be absolutely furious, as am I. Take a wild guess where the stock would be after the Saudi investment went public if Elon had been disciplined, much much higher than 305. Probably 400.

Don’t let this go, you shouldn’t. It’s ridiculous to say that with Elon you have to take the good with the bad. You should be rewarded for the high risk you are taking by share price appreciation. The risk is the price you pay. Elon has no right to be so careless with your investment.

Elon has OCD when it comes to setting the record straight, which is why he was bullied as a kid. His attitude hasn’t changed much since, so his behavior is giving shorts ammo to bully shareholders. He needs to show the same restraint as Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuck.. in the past his tweets were worth millions, now they’re causing the company to lose money. He’s clearly getting baited into a tweeter war, responding to a nobody and causing shareholders pain is not the quality of a CEO. You’re better than that.

 

[SPadival]

I doubt anybody can accuse Kimbal Musk of being erratic, unstable like his brother etc. etc.

When he says "We are at war", we ARE literally at war against the shorts and their click bait media enablers. So get on the front line or get out.

Oh, and we are going to win.

 

[sdtslafan]

If you had bought TSLA below $30 you'ld have 10x your money also...
Tesla's position in its growth curve is an independent thing to Amazon's...
Not that Elon's twittering has anything to do with the Model 3 ramp, or Tesla's balance sheet.

My point is that at that point in time you theoretically had options. And you and I chose the one that went up 50 percent between that time point and today instead of the one that went up 900 percent.

No. You choose to take on the risk or not. Going with Tesla has meant going with Elon since they were first listed. If you don't want to place money on that pairing, then don't. If one thinks a CEO is reckless, then leaving money in is carelessness on their part, but Elon has no obligation to bend to our opinion of what he should do.

As chairman of the board, Elon HAS AN OBLIGATION to look after shareholder interests. He didn't fulfill that obligation with his funding secured tweet or the haphazard plan to take Tesla private.

BTW it's also ridiculous that Elon is chairman of the board in addition to being CEO and that his brother sits on the same board. How can you possibly have an independent board?

 

[sundaymorning]

GM’s electric batteries tested in China failed to yield the anticipated power. It’s looking like VW EV might be in trouble too if this initial reports are true. VW also invested $billions in Chinese batteries. I’ve said this before, you just can’t trust China’s specs on paper without testing it. It’ll be another 3-5 years before the China are able to reach Tesla’s specs today.

GM’s Electric Dream in China Suddenly Looks Underpowered

Edit: GM’s safety testing also failed.

 

[Richard007]

Tesla Ramps Off Railroad Crossing, Gets An Insane Amount Of Air

Did you guys see Tesla catching some air. Space X was joke!