TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SW2Fiddler]

Wondering anyone planing to start a kickstarter to fund some of the SEC fine for Elon?

Can’t happen; Paragraph Four of the settlement.
“Defendant [to] not seek or accept ... reimbursement ... from any source...”

 

[cheshire cat]

Missed the big news last night by minutes and have been traveling all day, but going by the flavour of the previous twenty six pages I get the feeling it' s generally good news ? Bought on Friday--- repent on Monday? Since everyone's full of bright ideas perhaps I could venture to say something I have been putting off for weeks(since "production hell ") Take a leaf from my hero Robert Townsend (Up the Organisation) and get a retired general or similar to " do the rubber chicken circuit". Leaves our main man free to do the important stuff Sure I'll be soon corrected if I got the mood wrong.

 

[gringotuanis]

In fact, in the last quarterly conference a couple of weeks ago Elon said that no capital raise, ever:

How do you plan to fund all of this growth without going back to the capital markets to raise funds?
[...]

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

[...] we will not be raising any equity at any point [...]

For China, I think, our default plan will be to use essentially a loan from the local banks in China and fund the Gigafactory in Shanghai with local debt, essentially. And we certainly could raise money, but I think we don't need to and we – yeah, I think, it's better to – it is better discipline not to.​

So not only are there no plans to raise equity, they don't want to raise equity, and Tesla will fund through internally generated cash and local non-recourse debt for projects like the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Yeah, our default plan is we pay – we start paying off our debts. I don't mean refi-ing them, I mean paying them off. For example, there's a convert that's coming due soon, a couple hundred million, $900 million, something like that. We expect to pay that off with internally generated cash flow.
​

I.e. Elon wants Tesla to self-finance from free cash flow, similarly to Amazon.

Won't happen.

China Gigafactory will be funded with local debt, not e

Actually Newt has always been pro American business, jobs, and innovation. In my opinion people make a huge mistake by assuming generalities based on politics...either way. Tesla has appeal to ALL political persuasions. Obviously they support and drive the electric movement and thus threaten the fossil fuel and automotive industries. This typically has traction with the left. But, they also are a virtually all American company which supplies American jobs, supports the American economy and advances the influence of the American business sector in international venues. Typically pros for the right. I think it is a big mistake to assume that Tesla only has value and appeal to one side of the political isle or the other.

Dan

I'm a right winger and pretty conservative in the Midwest, but I'm heavily invested in Tesla. I also would say I'm mostly a climate denier with regards to temp change. However, electric cars will only make the air cleaner for us now so I'm for that. However, as a diy mechanic, I see a tremendous disruption in the simplicity of the powertrain. There are so many advantages over a combustion engine it just makes sense to invest. Also I like that it is a US company and we need to be the most innovative and reward innovation. From the right side military perspective we also need to stay ahead in tech like this to defeat anyone who attacks us and to be able to protect others. Plus many on the right and libertarians do not like government overreach and the SEC was going a bit overboard. Long tsla via calls and stock.

 

[traxila]

Won't happen.


I'm a right winger and pretty conservative in the Midwest, but I'm heavily invested in Tesla. I also would say I'm mostly a climate denier with regards to temp change. However, electric cars will only make the air cleaner for us now so I'm for that. However, as a diy mechanic, I see a tremendous disruption in the simplicity of the powertrain. There are so many advantages over a combustion engine it just makes sense to invest. Also I like that it is a US company and we need to be the most innovative and reward innovation. From the right side military perspective we also need to stay ahead in tech like this to defeat anyone who attacks us and to be able to protect others. Plus many on the right and libertarians do not like government overreach and the SEC was going a bit overboard. Long tsla via calls and stock.

Appreciate your logic and motivations. Hope that you are right about about the temp change, but I do not believe you are. Regardless, our interests are aligned, so good luck to both of us and all longs on this interesting journey.

 

[electrictorque]

I have personally talked to several people on the waiting room who were upset and some of them left WITHOUT getting their car along with myself. BTW, I have a clear comparison from 4 years ago when I picked up my Model S, that process was nice, well prepared and organized. My wife and my friends are laughing at me for being such a fanboi of Tesla to put up with this -- they would have walked away from the purchase long ago. So no, I am not exaggerating at all. This is worse than haggling with stealerships.

ps; disclosure I am long TSLA with 100% of my retirement savings

You can read the entire saga of my delivery process and tell me if I'm really exaggerating by calling that chaotic: AWD delivery thread
You can also find many other stories that are even worse than mine in the Model 3 section of the forum.

I'm really sorry you had such bad experience. I actually had the exact opposite. Ordered the car August 25 and it got delivered to my house on september 21. And this was in NJ. Best car buying experience ever.

 

[Cosmacelf]

If I could just sit him down for ten minutes and explain (from first principles!) why trains are more efficient.... Grrr. We badly need cheaper tunneling, but just put trains in the tunnels, Elon. Trains are the only method of passenger transportation over land ever to make a fully-loaded (capital, maintenance of entire route and buildings, etc. etc.) profit, and there are physics first principles reasons for that.

(P.S. We could use more battery electric trains.)

He may yet get there. He’s already moved from individual car carriers to 16 person pods. Elon always changes his ideas after design and engineering show him a better way, witness the evolution of SpaceX Inter Planetary Soaceship into the various versions of BFR/BFS.

 

[Fact Checking]

I also would say I'm mostly a climate denier with regards to temp change.

Is your global warming denial of religious nature, or can it be changed with new data?

Here's the current data:

 

[HG Wells]

Appreciate your logic and motivations. Hope that you are right about about the temp change, but I do not believe you are. Regardless, our interests are aligned, so good luck to both of us and all longs on this interesting journey.

While I don't like Dick Cheney, his 1% doctrine should be applied to climate change. IE If there is only a 1% chance that climate change is real then we need to work to prevent it.

The One Percent Doctrine - Wikipedia

Personally I think it's in the high 90's as a probability.

 

[Dwdnjck]

I'm all seriousness what about Marc Tarpenning? Anyway there are plenty of names.

How about both?

 

[scaesare]

Is your global warming denial of religious nature, or can it be changed with new data?

Here's the current data:

A great chart. May I ask for the source?

 

[kelly]

SEC also wants high profile cases to have a deterrent effect on other publicly traded companies engaging in similar conduct.

I think this is exactly right. This allowed the SEC to establish some rules on the use of twitter by corporate officers without actually having to go through the formal rule-making process.

 

[SunCatcher]

I think this is exactly right. This allowed the SEC to establish some rules on the use of twitter by corporate officers without actually having to go through the formal rule-making process.

Kelly, that seems a bit vague. Don't you think that the SEC's job is to make rules, and that they should be quite clearly spelled out?

 

[Fact Checking]

A great chart. May I ask for the source?

Sure:

"Here’s what global warming looks like month by month for 137 years"
​

The visualization uses the NOAA global land and ocean temperature anomalies time series:

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)​

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Since it’s still the weekend, which passenger rails are breaking even/profitable? Why do we have Amtrak? If the original railroads were not handed the land grants and monopoly status (effectively) would they have ever have shown a profit?

Electric trains are super efficient and I love em. Seems like EU has figured this out as well as Japan although I am not sure of the public subsidies.

Certainly curious if you know.

Thanx

Fire Away!

Subsidies depend on the routes. But you have to get to and from the hubs, and travel via the hubs and those trips are very often subsidized.
Once place I lived in the UK, traveling to my parents would take 1 hour in a car, but would take over 2 1/2 hours by public transportation. I once cycled it (about 45 miles) in 3 hours. (Would now be slower to cycle due to making a highway restricted access).

In Elon's head, you solve the engineering challenges to make the ideal possible, instead of figuring out the best way to work with current limitations. In his head there are aerodynamic autonomous truck platoons, autonomous cars, cheap tunnels with flexible, electric car-carrier systems, and rapidly-reusable, cheap, heavy-lift rockets. It's not surprising he sees things differently.

 

[SunCatcher]

Sure:

"Here’s what global warming looks like month by month for 137 years"​

Many deniers agree that temperatures are rising, but disagree that human activity is the cause. You know, just like back when we were told that dumping industrial waste into streams and waterways was not OK because fish and plant life were suffering because of it. Just because it was obvious to some of us; it didn't go over well with those who had to change their ways because of it...

It's just too easy to dump our carbon and waste into the air. And has proven way harder to provide our energy needs in ways that don't pollute. Until more recently. IMO, we've reached the point where there just is no excuse for going on doing things in the same way. Except inconvenience and loss of profits by those who have had them locked in for so long.

It's so exasperating. Remember how long it took to have it accepted that smoking is bad for our lungs, and our health? Seems so obvious, but those affected by the facts did not want to go along with it. That our atmosphere is the lungs of the earth somehow takes more capacity to envision than some people have.

 

[Drax7]

Temperatures are rising, correlation and causation are distinct.
The data would strongly suggest its man caused until proven otherwise.
The rise of fossil fuel matches the rise of temperature rise, unlikely it’s a coincidence.
Lets insure ourselves and transition away from fossil fuel.
Lets profit through Tesla.

 

[AWDtsla]

Subsidies depend on the routes. But you have to get to and from the hubs, and travel via the hubs and those trips are very often subsidized.
Once place I lived in the UK, traveling to my parents would take 1 hour in a car, but would take over 2 1/2 hours by public transportation. I once cycled it (about 45 miles) in 3 hours. (Would now be slower to cycle due to making a highway restricted access).

In Elon's head, you solve the engineering challenges to make the ideal possible, instead of figuring out the best way to work with current limitations.

Worse than I imagined for the UK, but still not as bad as my experiences in the US. Range from a 10x time ratio between long distance commute to car vs rail/subway, to slower than walking speed over short distances.

The doublethink of how bad public transportation is versus it's the only possible advocatable position is staggering. You're a bad person if you don't say public transportation is the best.

The parallelism of cheap ubiquitous tunnels is key here.

 

[EinSV]

Friendly tip -- TMC has a different thread that was created to discuss climate change denial: Climate Change Denial - Discuss

 

[WarpedOne]

https://sacredgeometryinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/The-Younger-Dryas-1024x763.jpg

Is is clearly us humans causing the temperature changes. When we started to organize as a civilization some 10k years ago, the temperatures skyrocketed for tens of degrees. Proof!

This climate change histeria has exactly the same mechanisms as Tesla bankwuptcy.
There is also exactly the same chances of anyone stopping believing anyone of them. It is a cemented position that will be taken into the grave.

Disagree as you like, the ice is coming our way.

 

[MXWing]

Comeon folks.. climate change discussion in market action is going to add 100 pages before Monday.

Let’s just say clean air is better than dirty air and end with that here.

I didn’t see a single seeking alpha article overnight. I wonder what their strategy is.

I am thinking to move goal posts to shred Q3 deliveries?

ONLY 49,999? Not even 50,000. Tesla should have been at 65,000. Huge huge miss.

Though they would have lost more money at 65,000 and the. 55,000.

Reports of inventory Model 3s at stores as well. Shows lack of demand as they couldn’t sell 100%.

It probably all comes within hours of each other as well.