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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Comeon folks.. climate change discussion in market action is going to add 100 pages before Monday.

Let’s jist say clean air is better than dirty air and end with that here.

On that note, I didn’t see a single seeking alpha article overnight. I wonder what their strategy is.

I am thinking to move goal posts to shred Q3 deliveries?

ONLY 49,999? Not even 50,000. Tesla should have been at 65,000. Huge huge miss.

Though they would have lost more money at 65,000 and the. 55,000.

Reports of inventory Model 3s at stores as well. Shows lack of demand as they couldn’t sell 100%.

It probably all comes within hours of each other as well.

Shortville times:
Reservations down 40k in Q3...

(Due to 60k deliveries :))
 
Won't happen.


I'm a right winger and pretty conservative in the Midwest, but I'm heavily invested in Tesla. I also would say I'm mostly a climate denier with regards to temp change. However, electric cars will only make the air cleaner for us now so I'm for that. However, as a diy mechanic, I see a tremendous disruption in the simplicity of the powertrain. There are so many advantages over a combustion engine it just makes sense to invest. Also I like that it is a US company and we need to be the most innovative and reward innovation. From the right side military perspective we also need to stay ahead in tech like this to defeat anyone who attacks us and to be able to protect others. Plus many on the right and libertarians do not like government overreach and the SEC was going a bit overboard. Long tsla via calls and stock.
I am glad you are invested in TSLA and your input here is always valuable. But, I have spent too much time in arctic Alaska and Canada to see the absurdity of anyone who doubts climate change. Even where Audi, our thread mod, lives a good 800 miles south of the arctic circle, the fires have increased and all the lakes are low to the point the beavers have dropped off severely in population.

I think you simply need to get out into the natural world and just open your eyes.
 
Worse than I imagined for the UK, but still not as bad as my experiences in the US. Range from a 10x time ratio between long distance commute to car vs rail/subway, to slower than walking speed over short distances.

The doublethink of how bad public transportation is versus it's the only possible advocatable position is staggering. You're a bad person if you don't say public transportation is the best.

The parallelism of cheap ubiquitous tunnels is key here.
Let me add that my trips via public transportation were a key case where the network structure made a big difference. I lived in a city where there wasn't a direct rail line to the town where my father lived. I had the same, but worse, challenge visiting my brother because the main routing is via expensive lines, and the fastest routing via London is ridiculously expensive. There's a greyhound equivalent, but times are limited and some routes can be very slow.

That said, I preferred travel by train for the comfort. Now I also prefer to take a bus from Augusta, ME or Portland, ME to BOS when visiting the UK. Can fly from AUG to BOS, but times generally don't work out well for the return, and there's greater risk of disruption if traveling late winter, as I often do. Can get a train from Brunswick, ME or Portland, ME to Boston, but the train goes to North Station, so more of a hassle to get to the airport.

Fixing this isn't easy, but it's why autonomy is a multi-billion dollar project with a multi-trillion dollar pot for the winners.
 
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I didn’t see a single seeking alpha article overnight. I wonder what their strategy is.

Don’t have to wonder. It’s business as usual. Absolutely nothing has changed.

The first will be that the all hands on deck (with begging for owner help) is the only reason Tesla was FCF/profitable/hit their guidance/blah, blah, blah - can’t be sustained, just wait they’ll run out of cash in Q4 if they don’t do a capital raise, etc., etc...
 
Since this is a market action thread, I will give my 2 cents about what's coming. I could be totally wrong. TSLA is so wild in short term, it seems nobody has been able to consistently get right on short term (except the guys who mechanically buy below 300 sell near 360).

Tesla in Q3 should have delivered around 60,000 Model 3, ASP $58k, delivered around 25,000 Model S and X, ASP 100k. Using these numbers the revenue should be above $6 B. The 60,000 Model 3 is easy to tell, 10k from last quarter, 50k from this quarter, a few thousand from the last few days will be pushed to Q4. The S+X number is a wild guess. China has a 40% tariff, that has a negative impact.

With these numbers, SEC thing is over, V9, autonomous testing... I think the stock is ready to swing back to the upper bound.

I hope they wait until after Tuesday close to send out the numbers. Don't send the good news on the same day.

Q4 will be intense. Not so many cars in transit from Q3. Quarter end delivery will be tough. One potential positive factor is we might get the trade war over. That would be really good for TSLA.
 
JUST IN: Elon Musk told Tesla employees in an email that the company was on the cusp of turning a profit

TicToc by Bloomberg on Twitter
Cool! Perfect storm for short sellers brewing
Let’s have a strong gap up tomorrow with follow through on Tuesday+Wednesday with strong delivery #s and run SP all the way into first week November when Q3 ER declares $TSLA profitable
All hands on board
Shorts have good cause to be scared
 
Since this is a market action thread, I will give my 2 cents about what's coming. I could be totally wrong. TSLA is so wild in short term, it seems nobody has been able to consistently get right on short term (except the guys who mechanically buy below 300 sell near 360).

Tesla in Q3 should have delivered around 60,000 Model 3, ASP $58k, delivered around 25,000 Model S and X, ASP 100k. Using these numbers the revenue should be above $6 B. The 60,000 Model 3 is easy to tell, 10k from last quarter, 50k from this quarter, a few thousand from the last few days will be pushed to Q4. The S+X number is a wild guess. China has a 40% tariff, that has a negative impact.

With these numbers, SEC thing is over, V9, autonomous testing... I think the stock is ready to swing back to the upper bound.

I hope they wait until after Tuesday close to send out the numbers. Don't send the good news on the same day.

Q4 will be intense. Not so many cars in transit from Q3. Quarter end delivery will be tough. One potential positive factor is we might get the trade war over. That would be really good for TSLA.

V 9 roll out will give a boost for sure. It sounds like the official V9.0 release will be tomorrow, so deferred EAP revenue will hit in Q4.
 
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Reactions: Fact Checking
JUST IN: Elon Musk told Tesla employees in an email that the company was on the cusp of turning a profit

TicToc by Bloomberg on Twitter

I gotta admit I didn’t think they would be cutting it this close. So best case they make a few million dollars profit? I can see bears spinning this to say the ASP of Model 3 will never be as high as this quarter, therefore Tesla will never really be profitable.
 
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Reactions: TradingInvest
I really, really hoped they were already at a profit

If he said they were already, the normal reaction would be to ease off on Sunday. Better to hang the carrot/stick to push through till the end.

Also, if in profit territory, for all deliveries at this point gross margin is net margin. Super boost to the bottom line.
 
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