TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[uselesslogin]

Geez, so when we were at $265 back in 2014 the NASDAQ was at 4300. If the stock just kept pace with the NASDAQ since then we would almost be at $480 today. The good news is this stock has actually been so terrible for a 'tech' stock that we might see massive upwards price movement as financials improve. (Assuming us longs are right.)

Honestly at this point I think I'm not doing much except playing the earnings call. Too many other things moving stocks right now but I really think the earnings call will shock people.

 

[humbaba]

Decent recovery in the Nasdaq is not happening with TSLA. It's seems to be anchored near the lows. Shorts aren't letting up here yet...

And yet... it is still just a gradual decline. Given $TSLA volatility and the proximity to $250 I'm still waiting for a significant drop. Its looking increasingly likely, though, that it will just drift until closing with recovery (or drop?) in after hours.

 

[M3Rider]

....I’d prefer the stick be at 400, but until profits and SEC in rear view mirror, we are going to fight lower highs and lower lows...
...Bulls hope at this point is that Tesla managed cash well and turns a profit and projects a strong Q4...

Wondering what "strong" means...Say, if SP doesn't go up by much after Q3 and Elon says screw it, it's not worth to do all that market wants - and CAPEX goes up for Y, Semi, China etc. What kind of effect will this have on SP if cash reserves are on the low-ish side? I mean, what gives us an idea that Elon will be focused on SP as a primary concern?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Reminder: we don't know that the upcoming Saudi announcement has anything to do with Tesla at all.

Karen... we don't actually know anything for reals, but context was everything. We just get a theory and we bet on it when the odds are in our favor. And I feel like I have a Royal Flush about now

 

[beachbum77]

I know exactly what you said. I also know exactly what you’ve left unsaid, while purposely leading people to that thought that you’ve left unsaid.

I know all about S drive unit and battery replacements. I even know why they happened, what happened, and what Tesla has done about it. Has nothing to do with the Model 3. And even less than nothing to do with the Roadster.

Normally I’d chalk this up to a person who’s afraid of new technology and the unknown. But you’ve got an agenda and several of us are on to you. You’ll slip up eventually and fully expose yourself. Everyone does. Just a matter of time. Keep posting. It increases the odds.

Wow. You really are a conspiracy theorist. Well, you keep on reading my posts and you let us all know when my "agenda" is exposed. In the meantime, thanks for at least reading and not disagreeing to every post like SpaceCash.

 

[Mobius484]

Could these be the cars the shorty Air Force pointed out? Or were those the recent surges that are selling like hot cakes?


Tesla Model 3 production ramp pushes forward with 17.8k VIN filings in 7 days — Teslarati

 

[humbaba]

Wondering what "strong" means...Say, if SP doesn't go up by much after Q3 and Elon says screw it, it's not worth to do all that market wants - and CAPEX goes up for Y, Semi, China etc. What kind of effect will this have on SP if cash reserves are on the low-ish side? I mean, what gives us an idea that Elon will be focused on SP as a primary concern?

I think its pretty safe to say that SP is not Elon's primary concern. He wants it better due to its use as employee compensation, but is primary concern has been execution. And I'm with him on that. If he says, "screw this proving we can show a profit, let's double down on capex and push everything out ASAP" I'm plenty happy with that. There is massive room for growth and the slower Tesla is the more the ankle biters will nip at their heels.

I say just get it over with and force a conversion to EV.

 

[gora321]

According to Troys tracker Tesla should hit 100.000 mark tomorrow!

 

[omarsultan]

I think delivery of the joint letter to the judge this week could be the next circuit breaker for the current SP trend.

 

[Remus]

I maybe asking for trouble here but let me vouch for beachbum77 dispite of the fact I disagree with him all the time. It is important to hear the other side of the argument when it is presented in a calm and elaborative manner. he present the complete argument most of the time, unlike some troll who just repeat stupid sound bites.

Thanks for posting - I've found it to be a huge help in cutting down on the BS/FUD.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/account/ignored
azaz,beachbum77,FirebirdAlpha,gtrplyr1,nursebee,Smokey4141,Teslie,trayloader

 

[Aieukl378]

For real it's glaringly obvious and mind blowing something as stupidly simple as closing a Twitter account is such an issue.View attachment 341941

Sorry about my crappy chart but the big blue spike on the left is the "taking public" tweet then we know what happened next(down, down,down)

7 disagrees and 2 funnies?! That is a real chart BTW...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

There has been no mention of the reservation list for many months. Do you have proof of the hundreds of thousands of reservations still out there? We would all love to see it. So would everyone on Wall Street. So please share your information with us.

I am not making anything up. I am trying to explain the Bloomberg numbers (which have been pretty damn accurate so far). And I am talking 4,000 +/- Model 3's, not Model S cars. Take time to proofread your posts.

So you pick a number in the middle of a production ramp and call that the top. Without any proof. And when it gets to 5,000 or 6,000 you will do the same. Don’t hurt your back carrying those goal posts.

You know exactly why they no longer publish the reservation list. In North America you no longer need a reservation to order.

Model S where I meant Model 3... Guess that’s because I owned three already. Try driving one. I heard it cures trollitis.

 

[bdy0627]

Wow, TSLA is really ignoring the recovery of the Nasdaq at this point. That's not a good sign and suggests this may not be the bottom here.

 

[Aieukl378]

Next stop 243ish

 

[dc_h]

Wondering what "strong" means...Say, if SP doesn't go up by much after Q3 and Elon says screw it, it's not worth to do all that market wants - and CAPEX goes up for Y, Semi, China etc. What kind of effect will this have on SP if cash reserves are on the low-ish side? I mean, what gives us an idea that Elon will be focused on SP as a primary concern?

I think he does care, much to his chagrin. I think if profits are -50 to + 50, cash flow should be at least + 500 million. I could be delusional though and haven’t worked the numbers thoroughly. If they are + 500 million and on track for +500 million going forward, they’ll have bankers kissing Elon’s ring for the opportunity to loan money.
If that happens the short story ends except for a few zealots.

 

[Big Earl]

I picked up 4 more shares at $250.00 today, bringing me to 94% of my goal for the year. Yesterday, I entertained several of our neighbors with test drives at our neighborhood block party ... one couple who had never been in an electric car is now looking at trading in their gen 2 Prius, possibly before the end of the year (they were in the market for a Subaru). On Friday, I gave one of my coworkers a test drive and it sounds like he's seriously thinking about trading in his BMW 5-series.

Interestingly, many people asked me about all of the negative news recently. After a bit of discussion, they agreed that disrupted industries are spending a lot of money on spreading FUD.

 

[SOULPEDL]

(Assuming us longs are right.)

We are...

 

[humbaba]

7 disagrees and 2 funnies?! That is a real chart BTW...

I'm reminded of a quote. It goes something like... "statistics don't lie, but..." I forget the rest.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

bought more just now at 251. I am invested deep now. I hope the market is green tomorrow.

 

[M3Rider]

I think its pretty safe to say that SP is not Elon's primary concern. He wants it better due to its use as employee compensation, but is primary concern has been execution. And I'm with him on that. If he says, "screw this proving we can show a profit, let's double down on capex and push everything out ASAP" I'm plenty happy with that. There is massive room for growth and the slower Tesla is the more the ankle biters will nip at their heels.

I say just get it over with and force a conversion to EV.

I think so too. So, it could very well be that dreams of SP shooting up after good numbers will not be realized for many quarters.
Therefore, short term optimism may be unwarranted.