TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

So what caused that sudden reversal?

 

[KarenRei]

Neal Boudette is looking for some DM stories about Model 3. I suggest people DM him

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Reminder: this is the "Unraveling a Tesla Mystery: Lots (and Lots) of Parked Cars" guy. Guess someone was having trouble finding something negative to write about Tesla and decided to try the Ambulance Chaser approach.

 

[M|S|W]

So what caused that sudden reversal?

seems like TSLA following Nasdaq

 

[Tslynk67]

seems like TSLA following Nasdaq

Sure, I know that, but what caused NASDAQ to reverse and the DOW with it, all in tandem?

Just trying to understand a little...

 

[bdy0627]

It's going to be fun riding the TSLA wave when the market comes to realize that GF3 isn't just some fantasy. I think seeing the construction cranes will be a real wakeup call.

Curious what the shorties are making of this progress toward GF3. A company getting ready for bankruptcy/restructuring doesn't get ready for another massive project of spending for growth. I'm sure they have a way to explain it despite Tesla getting ready to file for bankruptcy soon.

 

[Leo9]

It's going to be fun riding the TSLA wave when the market comes to realize that GF3 isn't just some fantasy. I think seeing the construction cranes will be a real wakeup call.

I agree, however If the market go into bear mode good results won't matter much and basically every stock will be sold on volume.
In this scenario a stock like TSLA would be very vulnerable and that is concerning. Hopefully the earning season will resume the uptrend.
I'm still long shares and some november calls.

 

[KarenRei]

Curious what the shorties are making of this progress toward GF3. A company getting ready for bankruptcy/restructuring doesn't get ready for another massive project of spending for growth. I'm sure they have a way to explain it despite Tesla getting ready to file for bankruptcy soon.

They think it's smoke and mirrors. Pretending to get ready for a project that they'll never actually be able to make.

 

[KarenRei]

I agree, however If the market go into bear mode good results won't matter much and basically every stock will be sold on volume.
In this scenario a stock like TSLA would be very vulnerable and that is concerning. Hopefully the earning season will resume the uptrend.
I'm still long shares and some november calls.

Tesla is supply limited, not demand limited. It's in a perfect spot to be in a recession. Heck, a recession would make their supply and transport costs cheaper. It's also a global business, so unless you're talking a global recession...

 

[dqd88]

Reminder: this is the "Unraveling a Tesla Mystery: Lots (and Lots) of Parked Cars" guy. Guess someone was having trouble finding something negative to write about Tesla and decided to try the Ambulance Chaser approach.

He's definitely on the devil's payroll

 

[durkie]

As opposed to all the fine people that do business with a Chinese government that have Scandinavian level ethics.

China 'holding at least 120,000 Uighurs in re-education camps'

New US report highlights China’s repressive policies in Tibet - International Campaign for Tibet

China executed more people than the rest of the world combined last year

I don't think I understand your point here. Are you arguing that people shouldn't care about Saudi Arabia kidnapping/torturing/murdering a journalist because people don't care about China's human rights violations? Or are you arguing that people should care more about China's human rights violations?

 

[Lipsyte]

Neal Boudette is looking for some DM stories about Model 3. I suggest people DM him

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Dear lord, I went through his Twitter and and it reads like M.b Spiegel's account. All he tweets about is to bash Tesla

 

[dqd88]

Many retired folks have low incomes but plenty of cash saved. We're seeing people in their 80s buying brand new Teslas.

That said, as others have stated, many such people may have the ability to do a Roth conversion or time the realization of capital gains, thus still enabling them to take the full federal tax credit.

It's also worth repeating that Tesla is drawing in buyers who were previously buying mass-market, relatively affordable cars like the Civic or Camry. People are sacrificing to get Teslas. Although stretching to buy a new car is rarely optimal from the standpoint of personal finance, I'm glad to see so many people supporting the transition to sustainable transportation.

I'm not exactly retired, but I am treating myself to a sabbatical of sorts. So not much income this year (just a bit of cap gains), plenty of savings. So sounds like I wouldn't get much benefit from the 7.5k incentive right?

 

[njzimmic]

anyone else see that spike?

 

[njzimmic]

JB Strobal for Head Chairman.. He's got my vote!

 

[AWDtsla]

As opposed to all the fine people that do business with a Chinese government that have Scandinavian level ethics.

China 'holding at least 120,000 Uighurs in re-education camps'

New US report highlights China’s repressive policies in Tibet - International Campaign for Tibet

China executed more people than the rest of the world combined last year

Only 120k? The US has 2.2 million prisoners, which is more than 6 times as many prisoners per capita as China. If you want to get specific, they also tend to be of a particular ancestry. Talk about a glass house.

Perhaps it's best to not mix politics with business.

 

[dqd88]

I don't think I understand your point here. Are you arguing that people shouldn't care about Saudi Arabia kidnapping/torturing/murdering a journalist because people don't care about China's human rights violations? Or are you arguing that people should care more about China's human rights violations?

We should care about all violations, including our own

 

[azaz]

Not sure why life of one journalist is more important than 100s of thousands of Yemanis or a million Iraqis.

Coming back to Tesla & MBS, one thing that is abundantly clear is MBS is reckless. He is making a lot of enemies within and outside KSA. Saudis used to do things much more silently and behind the scenes. Not so with MBS.

yes, the recklessness is the key point. I mean who starts a fight with Canada? I actually appreciate that while the world was fine ignoring stuff like Yemen and hiding behind things like "they are a strategic partner on terror" Trump just came out and said the quiet part out loud which is that the whole relationship is maintained because Saudi money is still green and they spend a lot of it.

what is different about MBS however, and perhaps he feels emboldened by the free hand this administration has given him due to their personal business ties, is that he is straight up reckless. he does things out in the open without face saving measures that can have some plausible deniability.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

Sure, I know that, but what caused NASDAQ to reverse and the DOW with it, all in tandem?

Just trying to understand a little...

so my main theory right now is that the correction is because of the uncertainty about the upcoming midterms, like before the elections 2016. Until then we will find the range of how uncertain things are, and after the elections we will go up either way, because the economy is strong. If we fall further because democrats are elected, 2020 uncertainty is going to be a real problem.

For $TSLA I decided to hold through this uncertainty regardless, because I believe that in 5-10 years of technological improvement, a company as innovative as $TSLA will be able to be worth more than 43 billion dollars. Especially if they manage self driving, and as they have the biggest global fleet I see them with the biggest advantage to achieve this goal.

tl;dr: hold

 

[Leo9]

Tesla is supply limited, not demand limited. It's in a perfect spot to be in a recession. Heck, a recession would make their supply and transport costs cheaper. It's also a global business, so unless you're talking a global recession...

I'm not talking about a global recession, I'm talking about a potential (but still unlikely) bear market. I'm confident that Tesla (the company) would be fine, however the stock would go lower regardless. Even top stocks with great growth, pristine balance sheets, billions in net cash like AAPL or GOOGL would still go down a lot in such a market.

To be clear, I see no reason for a bear market, but to see a lot of indexes and stocks below the 200SMA and a lot of trendlines broken is not encouraging. I still believe that this is just a moderate correction, otherwise I would have already sold my shares, but I don't think that the general market health should be ignored.

so my main theory right now is that the correction is because of the uncertainty about the upcoming midterms, like before the elections 2016. Until then we will find the range of how uncertain things are, and after the elections we will go up either way, because the economy is strong. If we fall further because democrats are elected, 2020 uncertainty is going to be a real problem.

I think it's quite unlikely that this correction has anything to do with the elections.

 

[dqd88]

Anyone else concerned about possible upcoming expansion of Saudi investment in Tesla given the apparent assassination of a U.S. Green Card holding journalist likely by the Sauidi government? Twitter is full of activity right now about companies, media, and governments backing out of the Davos in the Desert event, which was rumored to be where a major Tesla announcement was going to be made.

Now what? Will/should Tesla walk from the deal? If not, does the stock (and company reputation) take a huge hit?

I was thinking about this last night. Until it blows over, Tesla should keep an arms length. If there is in fact a big deal, Tesla should not walk, but there should be no big announcement. Just do it silently