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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Reminder: this is the "Unraveling a Tesla Mystery: Lots (and Lots) of Parked Cars" guy. Guess someone was having trouble finding something negative to write about Tesla and decided to try the Ambulance Chaser approach.

You know that's exactly why my Attorney bought a model 3.
They are excellent Ambulance Chasers.
 
Just curious if anyone thinks Tesla will go this route for raising capital again.

For consistency, I see them doing the exact same methodology.

However I never thought of that as "raising capital" because I think they kept reservation money in an escrow account. (They collected the interest on 400million dollars of course :))

The Model Y reveal event and accompanying hype is going to make the Model 3 event look tiny. The word of mouth from existing owners will by 2019 be an exponential increase over that which Model 3 owners-to-be experienced when they were thinking about lining up and putting down their $1,000.

I can only guess how many dealers and managers from legacy automakers will be tuning in as well... just to see the writing on the wall.
 
212 Acres give or take, need parking, external utilities, finished goods parking.

GF1 started at 1,000 acres and exercised the option to buy an additional 1,864 acres so the GF1 site is over 13x the size.

Fremont is 370 acres.
Yikes, that's not a lot of room. Well, they probably weren't going to move S/X production to China (as world demand seems reasonably balanced with Fremont output already), so that helps, but they may need to go for a 4+ story building to fit 3, Y, TE storage, and cell production in there (assuming all of these things get built there - cell and either 3 or Y seems certain at minimum). GF1 is already 2-3 stories depending on where you're at (different parts have different height floors)
 
I've thought about this a bit recently. I think a Model 3 would make an awesome police car. They need a lot of hardware on top (light bar etc.), and a lot of glass on top would be a negative feature.
They should be able to install the non-PUP metal roof in much the same fashion as the glass roof, and keep running robots through the roof earlier in production. If it works for glass, should work for metal ...
 
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Yikes, that's not a lot of room. Well, they probably weren't going to move S/X production to China (as world demand seems reasonably balanced with Fremont output already), so that helps, but they may need to go for a 4+ story building to fit 3, Y, TE storage, and cell production in there (assuming all of these things get built there - cell and either 3 or Y seems certain at minimum). GF1 is already 2-3 stories depending on where you're at (different parts have different height floors)

Cells, packs, drive units, body, seats (and maybe wire harness) manufactured on site. The 3 line is much higher density than the S/X and we all know the amount of room needed for final assembly...
 
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For consistency, I see them doing the exact same methodology.

However I never thought of that as "raising capital" because I think they kept reservation money in an escrow account. (They collected the interest on 400million dollars of course :))

The Model Y reveal event and accompanying hype is going to make the Model 3 event look tiny. The word of mouth from existing owners will by 2019 be an exponential increase over that which Model 3 owners-to-be experienced when they were thinking about lining up and putting down their $1,000.

I can only guess how many dealers and managers from legacy automakers will be tuning in as well... just to see the writing on the wall.

Awww. Ok. So it wasn’t used for building manufacturing capacity. I’m almost wondering if that is maybe a requirement of law etc.

I would almost guess they would wait until they actually have factory space designated....which I personally think will be Nevada with all the talk about hiring etc. Just guessing of course.
 
No rush for me: I can't take advantage of the tax credit. Of course, the corollary is that I can't afford a Tesla either :(

I don't know what the split in the US is for those who can take advantage of the tax credit, but there is a common misconception around EV discussions that everyone has a large tax burden that will be offset by the credit. Not everyone makes that much money. :(
Some good comments have been posted about Roth Conversions, but there are a few things worth pointing out:

1. Don't confuse a contribution to a Roth with a "Roth Conversion". While there are limits to how much you can contribute to a Roth in a given year, there are no limits to how much you can convert (move from a traditional IRA or 401k to Roth).

2. A Roth conversion is treated as regular income and taxed as such, but unlike an early distribution from an IRA you do not have to pay the 10% early distribution penalty that you normally would for a pre- age 59 1/2 IRA distribution.

Of course you can get all this info from the interwebs. This page is pretty good:
The Ultimate Roth IRA Conversion Guide - Everything You Need to Know

So, if your tax liability is looking to be low for 2018 and you want to take advantage of the full $7,500 tax credit, a Roth conversion is a great way to do so. And with the stock price so low right now, converting TSLA shares held in an IRA or 401k to Roth right now is even more attractive. I've converted over $30,000 worth of Tesla stock this year to my IRA, and it will largely be offset by the tax credit on my (soon to be) M3 purchase. Hell, whenever we're in a dip and I'm "out of dry powder" I always consider converting a few shares to my Roth, since better to pay taxes on shares at $2xx/share instead of $7xx, $8xx or $9xx/share, no? You just have to be aware of how it's going to affect your tax bill for the year.

One last thing: If you are buying your health insurance from a state or the federal exchange and receiving a subsidy (i.e Obamacare), then be aware that a Roth conversion is going to bump your regular income and if your income exceeds the income estimate you used to get your subsidy, then will have to repay some or all of your health care subsidy.

Not an advice.

PS: At Fidelity the share value used to calculate the value of a Roth conversion is the end-of-day price, not the price at the time of the transfer. At Schwab I believe it was handled differently (but it's been a few years since I've used Schwab).
 
Median household income is great, but you have to factor in who is buying EV's and it's not the average household. Tesla has reported some numbers in the past and I think that their average HHI was over 200K.

So what you are saying is that EVs are only for the top 10%? I don't agree with that, nor does that seem to fit with Tesla's vision. The EV tax credit is nice for HHI > $200k, but it also is far from critical, but just not that significant to the rest of the population if it matters at all.

Put another way, if the EV tax credit -- even if it weren't expiring -- is irrelevant to the majority of the population how is it a meaningful incentive? My claim is that it is not. Either you can afford a Tesla without the tax credit, or you wouldn't qualify for the tax credit in the first place. If it was actually intended to increase EV adoption it wouldn't have been limited to the wealthy. The real reason for it goes off into politics so I'll steer clear of that. But my point is that the incentive does nothing to alter the economics of purchasing a Tesla.
 
SP poppin hard
say what?

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And Tesla got special permission for the Gigafactory to be 100% foreign (Tesla) owned.
[snip]
Tesla is going to be in a very, very good position in the Chinese auto market...

However Tesla wrangled that permission, I think that is a major overlook in terms of how well known a fact it is. This is not how China normally does business. Tesla has to be very compelling to convince the Chinese government to do this.
 
What "new business deal with Tesla"?

Can people please acting talking like there's some sort of confirmation like Saudi Arabia is engaging in some sort of massive new deal with Tesla simply because they said they're going to be making a large cleantech announcement?

The rumor came from the tweet below. Yes, it’s a random, unverified account. But we bulls have been known to get more excited by even less substantive rumors historically.

Unfortunately, I agree that the Kashoggi case would make this a very unpalatable association for TSLA right now, even if it does serve the mission of accelerating the transition to renewable energy.

677A9E54-05E2-4570-86C2-3CE52A2C0AB8.jpeg
 
The rumor came from the tweet below. Yes, it’s a random, unverified account. But we bulls have been known to get more excited by even less substantive rumors historically.

Unfortunately, I agree that the Kashoggi case would make this a very unpalatable association for TSLA right now, even if it does serve the mission of accelerating the transition to renewable energy.

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When virtue signalling is more important than having your entire city 20 feet under water... I don't think Saudi Arabia even remotely has a chance of killing as many people as climate change.
 
When virtue signalling is more important than having your entire city 20 feet under water... I don't think Saudi Arabia even remotely has a chance of killing as many people as climate change.

My view on the matter is:

Pulling out of the deal (if it exists) might send a political message but add significant harm to the planet.

Staying in the deal has environmental benefits that far outweigh the drawback of the "political message" it would send.
 
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