TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Another is the announcement that Tesla Model 3 is the top selling sedan in the USA. Seems kind of inevitable - they only have to make enough. Cell production, I read, is the current bottleneck and Panasonic is working on adding more lines. Hopefully by the time there are enough packs for 6K/wk model 3, Fremont can cope with it, and there enough car carriers to deliver them.

Things happen fast. So now there's a mid range pack. Suggests to me that Fremont is ahead of Nevada in the scale up - they want to ship more cars with the same number of cells. But they didn't want to go all the way down to the short range $35K model just yet - the bears need to see solid profits to be convinced.

 

[BenPrice]

Full self driving being removed from model 3 is the biggest change of all of these changes.

That’s a giant part of the thesis...

 

[CaliBear1]

It's going to make people wide-eyed.

No, it's going to make Shorts wide-eyed...with panic!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Full self driving being removed from model 3 is the biggest change of all of these changes.

That’s a giant part of the thesis...

Still available off-menu, per Elon

 

[Gavyne]

Full self driving being removed from model 3 is the biggest change of all of these changes.

That’s a giant part of the thesis...

You got your lemur, be happy for crying out loud.

 

[winfield100]

What is going on please? I skimmed about 30-40 pages by reading the comment at the top.
whats this MR thingy? (i did read a few, but being retired, i got a life also)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What is going on please? I skimmed about 30-40 pages by reading the comment at the top.
whats this MR thingy? (i did read a few, but being retired, i got a life also)

Mid-range model 3. Now available. Starting at $45k

 

[AWDtsla]

Pretty sure margins went up on MR over old LR. $4k off for ~22% reduction in cell count. Would be margin neutral at $18k for LR cell cost at $245/kWh? Assuming their real cell cost is $130/kWh then margins improve by almost $2k per car?

Margin secured.

 

[Singuy]

Things happen fast. So now there's a mid range pack. Suggests to me that Fremont is ahead of Nevada in the scale up - they want to ship more cars with the same number of cells. But they didn't want to go all the way down to the short range $35K model just yet - the bears need to see solid profits to be convinced.

MR does not have the same amount of cells. The battery pack is the size of LR but with cells reduced per Elon.

 

[mblakele]

Full self driving being removed from model 3 is the biggest change of all of these changes.

That’s a giant part of the thesis...

I suspect it's temporary, until HW3 starts shipping. They may want to limit the number of HW 2.5 vehicles with pre-paid FSD, because Musk said they'd get free upgrades.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Pretty sure margins went up on MR over old LR. $4k off for ~22% reduction in cell count. Would be margin neutral at $18k for LR cell cost at $245/kWh? Assuming their real cell cost is $130/kWh then margins improve by almost $2k per car?

Margin secured.

I think you have that backwards... with a lower cost/kWh, 22% off the pack cost is a smaller number, not a larger one.

 

[KarenRei]

Wow, and the good news keeps coming! (for me at least):

We're in the dropdown list More evidence that they're getting ready to come here!

 

[JRP3]

No surprise the bears are freaking out about "lack of demand" because of the MR announcement.

 

[winfield100]

Mid-range model 3. Now available. Starting at $45k

range of MR? please

 

[MarcusMaximus]

range of MR? please

260 miles. All stats are on Tesla’s website.

 

[AWDtsla]

I think you have that backwards... with a lower cost/kWh, 22% off the pack cost is a smaller number, not a larger one.

Hmm, nope, doesn't seem so. At $130/kWh, $4k would buy almost 31kWh of cells. Actual reduction more like 16 based on guesstimates. Rest is profit.

 

[bhtooefr]

Not exactly.

1) The actual measured range for the Model 3 LR RWD was 334 miles. They chose 310 miles nominal so that they could call all LRs "310 miles", including the (actually 308 mile) AWD and P variants.

2) As you reduce the pack capacity, you reduce the vehicle mass, and this provides a several percent increase in vehicle range, which means a several percent decrease in the required number of cells for a fixed range.

An EPA combined 260 miles is a more than 20% reduction in cells.

Reduced pack size potentially reduces regen capability, offsetting some gains, however.

So, let's use these comments here:

From Tesla launches new Model 3 with ‘mid-range’ battery for $45,000, changes pricing structure

"We asked Tesla about the new situation with the Model 3 battery pack options and the company confirmed to Electrek that the new pack is not a Long-Range pack with a software-locked capacity, but it has the same architecture with fewer cells."

...knowing that it's the LR architecture, let's look at Electrek's report on the original Model 3 pack architecture - we know the SR won't use it any more, but the SR isn't relevant to this discussion except as a historical data source: Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture

The standard 50 kWh Model 3 battery pack is made of 2,976 of those cells in groups of 31 cells per “brick”. The bricks go into 4 separate modules (2 modules of 23 bricks and 2 modules of 25 bricks).

That pack is going into production later this year. Currently, Tesla is producing a 74 kWh ‘long range’ battery pack, which consists of 4416 cells in groups of 46 cells per brick and the same brick distribution in the 4 modules.

So, the Standard Range car has 67.4% of the battery of the Long Range car... and 65.9% of the range (using 220 and 334 mi as the range figures). I'm guessing that the issue there may be a combination of the unusable portion of the battery being similarly sized, along with potential sandbagging on the 220 figure. But, it's close.

So, using the Mid Range's 77.8% range, I'm coming up with 35.8 cells per brick. Round up to 36, and I think you've got something plausible.

 

[MXWing]

Mod: a couple of people have been placed in moderation, for what should be obvious reasons. The penalty this carries with it is that you have to wait for me to get a chance to approve your postings, and these days I'm quite busy. Serves you right for being nasty to each other. You can be nasty to me instead. --ggr.

Testing to see if I am in moderation queue.

Also, in my excitement I took my 2nd reservation and placed an MR order.

HUGE HUGE QUESTION IS.

Does this come before the end of the year? It would be POINTLESS to wait for SR and reduced credits when you can get MR sexiness now.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Hmm, nope, doesn't seem so. At $130/kWh, $4k would buy almost 31kWh of cells. Actual reduction more like 16 based on guesstimates. Rest is profit.

Drat, I had it backwards. Carry on.

 

[Gavyne]

Seriously white interior option available to MR RWD, that is s3xy AF. This is such an attractive option for those maybe sitting on the fence, or couldn't quite make the previous price range fit.

Also this is RIP to the new longer range LEAF and Bolts coming out. Gonna be hard to sell them $36k-$42k cars with this mid-range Model 3 costing just a lil bit more.