TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MikeC]

Sounds like FSD pre-order option really is going away. Maybe they just sell it for $5k or more when it is finally ready. So people have one week to put in an order to save $1000+.

 

[azaz]

the demand argument is so dumb. if Tesla had demand issues they would've started advertising. even a simple thing as putting a Model 3 badge on the car so people know what it is.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I suspect Karen is right. A large portion of the factory is probably under utilized waiting for Panasonic to produce more cells. Now, the LR high margin cars with AWD are being produced, with the MR providing capacity for a higher number of cars, which improves total cash flow. Very smart move.

 

[dgodfrey]

Testing to see if I am in moderation queue.

Also, in my excitement I took my 2nd reservation and placed an MR order.

HUGE HUGE QUESTION IS.

Does this come before the end of the year? It would be POINTLESS to wait for SR and reduced credits when you can get MR sexiness now.

Web site states 6-10 weeks so you should be good. Barely

 

[ggr]

I think a lot of the shorts have been talking about demand for a long time. But you have to be careful talking about it on this forum as there will be screams to ban you immediately.

But that's because the demand arguments have been thoroughly debunked. Model 3 is only shipping to about 1/3rd of the markets that Tesla is already in, and much of the world is untapped. MS and MX sales have not slowed down. Tesla has any number of knobs it can turn to increase demand, like... advertising.

 

[Singuy]

The cost of a MR with full 7500 tax credit is exactly $1,250 more than a SR+PUP with 3750 tax credit. So for $1,250 you get 40 miles of additional range plus a small increase in acceleration.

 

[omarsultan]

FSD going away as an option is a spin-meister's wet dream--I can see the mis-reporting now...

 

[MXWing]

The cost of a MR with full 7500 tax credit is exactly $1,250 more than a SR+PUP with 3750 tax credit. So for $1,250 you get 40 miles of additional range plus a small increase in acceleration.

And driving the best car in the world (relative to $$$) now versus who knows when.

 

[Unpilot]

But that's because the demand arguments have been thoroughly debunked. Model 3 is only shipping to about 1/3rd of the markets that Tesla is already in, and much of the world is untapped. MS and MX sales have not slowed down. Tesla has any number of knobs it can turn to increase demand, like... advertising.

Sigh...this gets so old.

 

[Singuy]

No surprise the bears are freaking out about "lack of demand" because of the MR announcement.

Righttttttt...the same bears who are claiming the 35k version is vaporware? Sick and tired of their *sugar*.

Being 4k cheaper is 4k cheaper. That's a pretty huge deal and now with tax credit Tesla just entered fully loaded Toyota's territory.

 

[bhtooefr]

Does this come before the end of the year? It would be POINTLESS to wait for SR and reduced credits when you can get MR sexiness now.

There are still reasons for someone to hold out for SR, though.

• Tax credit will still exist next year, just reduced.
• If you don't want premium interior, you're still gonna want to hold out - MR is $37,500 after tax credits, SR with standard interior would be $31,250-$33,125 depending on when in the year you get it.
• If you don't have $7500 of tax liability, it shifts things even more towards waiting (unless you can get a leasing company to take the tax liability hit for you).

I mean, I'm not in the market yet and won't be for three years, but my ideal configuration is LR RWD with standard interior, a config that may never exist at this rate...

But, yeah, if you were going to get SR+premium interior and have $7500 of liability... get the MR now, if you can swing it.

Also, I do see this as Tesla pulling some demand levers in response to available parts, while also increasing units sold and therefore profit. AFAIK Tesla was pretty surprised by LR customers going more towards AWD than expected (a massive positive, as it increases ASP), and was rumored to be running low on front motors? So, they had to keep putting RWD cars in the line, but apparently LR customers wanted the front motor...

...and with a well-documented cell constraint, why not pull 10 or so cells out of the RWD bricks (improving car production by 28%), to make a cheaper car and increase addressable market so the RWD cars don't languish...

 

[bdy0627]

After hours only up 2.
Perhaps news is spreading slowly.

I don't think this will be much of a stock catalyst at the moment, maybe slightly. If markets turn positive, TSLA will likely climb leading into earnings.

 

[MXWing]

I AM IN HUGE TROUBLE.

First issue was wife didn't buy my BS when the white seat Model 3 that goes 0-60 in 3.5 was only $35K.

2nd issue is I bought her a MR Model 3 and didn't tell her yet. Was wanting to add an S down the line so we could have S3X.

Couldn't resist the math of the MR versus waiting for the SR.

So now its just 33X. 33X is what I'm going to be if she doesn't take the news well.

Damn you Elon.

My only hail mary is I'm telling my wife I care for her, thus thus the MR 3. If I didn't care I'd get a her a Volvo instead.

 

[JRP3]

Annnnd right on cue..... Tesla: Has Model 3 Demand Collapsed? - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[MXWing]

Annnnd right on cue..... Tesla: Has Model 3 Demand Collapsed? - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

In my house, yes.

2 reservations in 2016. Now there is ZERO. NONE. NADA. ZIP.

No more Model 3 demand.

Billy boy is absolutely correct.

 

[KarenRei]

Couldn't resist the math of the MR versus waiting for the SR.

So now its just 33X. 33X is what I'm going to be if she doesn't take the news well.

Damn you Elon.

My only hail mary is I'm telling my wife I care for her, thus thus the MR 3. If I didn't care I'd get a her a Volvo instead.

C:\> MODEL.3X3
Loading fun...

 

[bdy0627]

Full self driving being removed from model 3 is the biggest change of all of these changes.

That’s a giant part of the thesis...

Elon did tweet recently that they have a long way to go yet. It makes sense to eliminate it. Funny though that they were just stressing the savings for people who purchase FSD up front. Now it's gone. It's almost like these are spur of the moment decisions going on there, which seems...a little strange at this point?

 

[wipster]

But that's because the demand arguments have been thoroughly debunked. Model 3 is only shipping to about 1/3rd of the markets that Tesla is already in, and much of the world is untapped. MS and MX sales have not slowed down. Tesla has any number of knobs it can turn to increase demand, like... advertising.

Why advertise when your customers are your best advertisement? I would agree with more publicity that proves the various naysayers wrong in a subtle manner (and not by Elon... bit too political right now, from a love or hate perspective).

 

[KarenRei]

Funny though that they were just stressing the savings for people who purchase FSD up front. Now it's gone.

Aka, you can't save the money anymore. Post-purchase for everyone.

It means they get less money up front, but more money down the road. Yet another sign that Tesla is very confident in their cash position in Q4.

 

[MXWing]

There are still reasons for someone to hold out for SR, though.

• Tax credit will still exist next year, just reduced.
• If you don't want premium interior, you're still gonna want to hold out - MR is $37,500 after tax credits, SR with standard interior would be $31,250-$33,125 depending on when in the year you get it.
• If you don't have $7500 of tax liability, it shifts things even more towards waiting (unless you can get a leasing company to take the tax liability hit for you).

I mean, I'm not in the market yet and won't be for three years, but my ideal configuration is LR RWD with standard interior, a config that may never exist at this rate...

But, yeah, if you were going to get SR+premium interior and have $7500 of liability... get the MR now, if you can swing it.

Also, I do see this as Tesla pulling some demand levers in response to available parts, while also increasing units sold and therefore profit. AFAIK Tesla was pretty surprised by LR customers going more towards AWD than expected (a massive positive, as it increases ASP), and was rumored to be running low on front motors? So, they had to keep putting RWD cars in the line, but apparently LR customers wanted the front motor...

...and with a well-documented cell constraint, why not pull 10 or so cells out of the RWD bricks (improving car production by 28%), to make a cheaper car and increase addressable market so the RWD cars don't languish...

I agree with you on putting more things on the menu to take advantage of giving single motor cars to a larger addressable market.

I disagree with you on holding out. $3,750 is not a small number. That practically pays for most of the PUP package anyway.

I think most people in the Tesla market would have $7,500 tax liability.

Lastly, how can YOU wait 3 years to drive a Tesla?