TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Johan]

Sounds like he is backing away from going to 10k in the near future.

They have to be disciplined with spending - if they are going to build a factory in China then they may have to hold off a little on lots of CapEx in Fremont in order to go from 7-10k per week… They want to stay cash flow positive every quarter going forward.

Another way to put it is they can't spread themselves too thin now, they'll have to prioritize between different projects that require spending where the pay-off is a bit delayed: China factory, build out of GF, build out/upgrading Fremont, Tesla Semi, development of Model Y, etc.

 

[abasile]

"...most excited about the Tesla Pickup, that's going to be some next level stuff" - Elon

 

[Ulmo]

Significant Model Y R&D progress done; Elon approved Model Y prototype to go into production.

Significant R&D progress done on Semi, Roadster, and pickup.

Solar tile roof start getting installed next year (requires a lot of time to do accelerated testing of 3 decade long longevity product).

Continued improvements in energy storage products ongoing (done and more) (PowerWall, PowerPack).

 

[Sparky4life]

Most exciting product roadmap on the planet. Maybe twice as exciting!

 

[Todd Burch]

Major change - Fremont no longer sure to ramp to 10k Model 3 per week, estimated guess about future rate is between 7k and 10k in Fremont and between 5k and 8k in the rest of the world. Model 3 production is coming to China (and Europe?)

What I'm hearing is they are planning to make 12k-18k/week M3 longer term. I'd never heard larger than 10k/wk. That's bullish. And making them in EU/China is better, as shipping costs will be lower.

 

[sweter]

Model Y prototype approved internally!

 

[tivoboy]

Lines coming down for retooling to go from 7-10k but not with much capex

to 7k not 10k

 

[neroden]

I just hope, after the blood bath today, saner heads prevail tomorrow and the market has a sharp upward correction. This will help boost SP. Otherwise the market is going to weigh down TSLA.

Microsoft released a great earning and is up about 4% in AH. BUT, it went down 5% today, so the SP is lower than yesterday's close !

It's a bear market (or maybe a "correction"). Hasn't really been a bear market in a very long time (2008 was more of a "crash", as was 2000).

 

[Heimdallr]

Will compete against Uber and Lyft

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Hmm, sounds like they are going to need at least SOME additional funds to get Fremont to 7K, which they are not at now.. and it seems 10K is QUITE a ways out. Sounded a tad hedgy to me, and "we're not ready to talk about that yet".. so I'm not going to model 7K a week in anything for at least a few quarters. We'll probably continue to be battery constrained regardless for 1-2 quarters, but it could be a canary.

That’s not what I heard. 7k will be easy to reach, with minimal capex. And JB said that batteries are no longer a bottleneck for the cars, only for energy.

 

[Fact Checking]

Sounds like he is backing away from going to 10k in the near future.

They don't need to, the break-even point turned out to be at around 3.5k/week, much lower than the estimated 5k/week. So at ~8k/week they'll be at similar cash generation.

Spend capex smartly: 7k-8k/week possible with minimal capex, and get the Chinese Gigafactory going - which gets combined output to 12k-13k/week.

 

[MXWing]

THANK YOU. NO SEC *sugar*.

YOU WASTED YOUR ONE QUESTION ADAM.

 

[Sparky4life]

MS: What kind of person do you want as new Chairman
EM: Not going there on this call.

 

[Unpilot]

Who needs to listen to the call....I like the play by play here!

 

[Zaxxon]

Jonas gonna Jonas...

 

[thait84]

Elon loves safety!

 

[electracity]

Sounded a tad hedgy to me, and "we're not ready to talk about that yet"

What I think he is saying is whether it makes sense to go to 10K Model 3 in Fremont depends on a lot of unknown futures such as product mix. For example, it may not make economic sense to do 10K if the extra 3K cars are $35K Model 3s for export.

 

[gene]

Does not intend to raise debt nor equity

 

[Sparky4life]

Yes Elon, It is the most expensive car I have ever bought, and yes it is totally worth it!

After I bought the car, I had to also buy 700 shares of TSLA!

 

[Fact Checking]

And making them in EU/China is better, as shipping costs will be lower.

Not just shipping costs, the much bigger gain is tariffs: in China they avoid 40% import tariffs, in Europe they avoid 10% import tariffs.