TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

We need to see how this trades after the standard morning dip. Still too early to tell IMO.

 

[kbM3]

@Fact Checking would you mind sharing what percentage of your investments are in TSLA?

 

[Starno]

There are longs buying stock, just like there are shorts covering.
There's just more longs profit taking and more shorts taking new positions ( at least as a net sum)

In my opinion, there should be at least 30 institutions/billionaires right now investing >$500 millions in Tesla. So minimum 15 billion dollars of capital flowing into TSLA. Which is not the case as of right now.

Why ?

 

[Buckminster]

What are people with calls doing ?

For one thing, as one would expect the IV has sharply gone down, now that ER is over. $300 for me is about break-even - so, if I sell now I'd just roll over my J19s to probably March '19.

I'll hold my stock until SP hits 4k

View attachment 346859

I have had similar thoughts regarding rolling J19s. I set up a separate thread for anyone brave enough to publicly estimate higher than $700 in April. 43 viewings so far without any takers. Please don't make me the next 007...

Super Bulls Only

 

[neroden]

Shorts are really going to try and get this under 300$ by end of week..caution.

I'm sort of looking forward to it at this point.

Can't resist -- sold some more puts which will expire next year. Hey, free money or cheap stock. I still have plenty of collateral to handle a temporary major move down.

Should have sold them yesterday but I was totally distracted during trading hours. :-( Oh well.

 

[KarenRei]

In my opinion, there should be at least 30 institutions/billionaires right now investing >$500 millions in Tesla. So minimum 15 billion dollars of capital flowing into TSLA. Which is not the case as of right now.

Why ?

I just told you: "Profit Taking $" + "New Short Position $" > "New Investment $" + "Short Covering $" (slight oversimplification, but....)

I can't tell you at this point what the balance of longs vs. shorts are having on the stock, but if it is mainly longs driving this, it simply means "More people are thinking 'Hey, I just earned a bunch of money, and the stock is inevitably going to go down so I'll be able to buy back cheaper - might as well cash out for a bit' than are thinking "OMG, I know the stock just went up and thus I'm 'buying high', but this will be my last chance to buy at these prices before it heads to the stratosphere!' ".

I'm not sure why you find this to be a quandry. This price movement is certainly disappointing, but hardly inexplicable.

 

[KarenRei]

2 1/2% over Nasdaq :Þ

 

[jeewee3000]

In my opinion, there should be at least 30 institutions/billionaires right now investing >$500 millions in Tesla. So minimum 15 billion dollars of capital flowing into TSLA. Which is not the case as of right now.

Why ?

Because institutions are professional traders, implying they have discipline not to buy huge amounts of stock in one go after a big event.

To all struggling with the "drop" to $301, have patience. (Geez).

 

[Krugerrand]

I've been thinking about what this means:

"We are aiming to bring portions of Model 3 production to China during 2019 and to progressively increase the level of localization through local
sourcing and manufacturing."

What's the logical priority for China to complete first?

* Overhead. A factory is not just particular production lines, but all of the transport, utility, and other supporting infrastructure that the factory is useless without. Big focus for the next couple quarters.

* GA line. This is obvious - they have to complete the vehicles there to gain the local manufacturing benefits, so they need at least a single GA line. GA is also one of the production constraints at Fremont. Tesla demonstrated the ability to make a GA line in a matter of months with GA4. I expect a GA line to start up there shockingly fast - not Q4, but Q2-3.

* Paint shop. This is the other big bottleneck at Fremont. Tesla can divert BIWs straight to export to Shanghai. Wouldn't be surprised in the least to see a local paint shop open up in Q4. Maybe even Q3, but I'd bet on Q4; paint shops are pretty complicated and require a lot of fine tuning to get consistently good results.

AFAIK, Fremont has never been limited by stamping or plastics, and apart from one short period early on, not welding either. Giga seems to be capable of scaling easily and effectively indefinitely, so GF3 production of packs and motors is obviously not going to be a priority. But with a GA line and paint shop in Shanghai, they should be able to significantly expand their total global output.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Giga 4 construction starting much faster than people are expecting, using the exact same approach.

There's a reason Tesla has walked back focus on 10k at Fremont (I've noticed analysts keep missing this part): because they can start up production "not at Fremont" surprisingly quickly. Not full production, but it doesn't need to be. I see Tesla scaling Fremont to 7k/wk sustained by Q1/Q2, with future scaling Model 3 scaling focused first on Shanghai, then Germany. Whenever they can't squeeze more production out of a given line at Fremont without a significant capital investment, a corresponding line will be built at Giga 3 or 4 for it.

You’re like the 4th person to mention stamping since the call. The chances of stamping parts next year there is very low. If they manage it, you’d be talking q4, Christmas.

The most logical approach for next year is something like ship bodies made here to China and insert batteries made in GF3. Use 2019 to set up press lines, GA, paint line etc.... Then 2020 slowly start building bodies in China while gradually decreasing bodies shipped from here.

 

[Chocochip]

I don't understand why people are so focused on the shorting. What about the longs ?

Why isn't there a few billionaires/institutions pouring hundreds of millions/billions of dollars of their capital into Tesla right now ?

That's a point not enough of people here are focusing on I think.

My guess is that they're waiting for the right time to enter, and they will do so over a long period in small chunks. Many investors are just now "waking up" to the remarkable beat that was yesterday's report, and it takes a bit to fully digest what it all means.

I do expect the SP to go up significantly next week.

 

[Causalien]

In my opinion, there should be at least 30 institutions/billionaires right now investing >$500 millions in Tesla. So minimum 15 billion dollars of capital flowing into TSLA. Which is not the case as of right now.

Why ?

Well, still having ptsd from the past quarter. Everytime the stock finally recovers, elon runs his twit again. We aren't even back to the lvl after the settlement announcement. To be honest the last time I felt it is safe to go all in was when saudi invested 5% into TSLA. . What follows afterward made it feel unsafe to do so. Wait another quarter and see. Maybe 2 more quarter.

 

[uselesslogin]

Huh, I'm hoping I wasn't wrong and yesterday still was the last time we passed $300. I can't believe it can be this low with the NASDAQ rebounding.

 

[KarenRei]

You’re like the 4th person to mention stamping since the call. The chances of stamping parts next year there is very low. If they manage it, you’d be talking q4, Christmas.

You do realize that that's exactly what I said, right? Why are you acting like you're disagreeing with what I wrote? Did you happen to see one word in my post and then pounce without actually reading the post?

 

[dondy]

This is a very fundamental philosophical question in FSD, but my personal feeling is NN should never be used to drive.

NN is perfect for perception, because perception is too big a problem to define by rules, and it can tolerate failures.

But using NN to drive has a huge issue, it's that we don't have a framework to make NN explainable, also you could argue as soon as you make an NN explainable, you already converted it into a decision tree.

You can do analysis of multi-layer NN.
by elementary cloning you can extract fringe cases, you can do border case ("expert" tuning) tests, you can do confidence analysis, you can to perform elementary tracing of found wrong choices and correct them (weight analysis, regression analysis etc.). The last actually can be done by another specially trained NN. Visualization techniques are a thing, and it is not for nothing the companies selling them are thriving.
Regression analysis is a basic instrument and remains very stronK.

If you want to bring the "trolly car" problem into the discussion to make a point for NN, I will say we would have AGI by the time NN can solve that, and by that time, we don't need FSD cars anymore, tunnels and rockets takes you anywhere you want to go, if you still need to go places at all.

*EDIT: typos*

People who try to go after AGI don't understand it, people who do don't even think about making it. AGI is not an instrument for autonomous driving or to do anything of a kind actually.

P.S. I hope Tesla is monitoring and studies gel electrolyte solutions. It will arrive to the mainstream in 2020 and they have to be ready.

 

[heltok]

Not even mad if we end the day in red, just to finally get a proof how irrational the market can be.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Here's what that YTD comparison of Tesla vs. other automakers looks like now:

at least that makes TSLA actually look pretty good
but F is up more than TSLA right now?? (8% vs ~5%) seems F'd up
Telsa pickup will probably fix that but still a while out

 

[UncaNed]

"New Investment $"

Where exactly does "New Investment" come in???

 

[Ellec]

I'm confused...why is this thing dropping after all this GREAT news? Why are scared bulls selling when Q4 is about to huge, too?

Sell the news.

 

[adaptabl]

I'm confused...why is this thing dropping after all this GREAT news? Why are scared bulls selling when Q4 is about to huge, too?

Just one quarter. The real test will be once the sales are not subsidized with the amount of rebates that are currently in place.

 

[KarenRei]

Where exactly does "New Investment" come in???

Alice takes money from his bank account.
Alice uses money to buy stock in TSLA, seeing the stock as having a great upside due to the Q3 report.
Alice has raised the price of TSLA.

Bob owns TSLA.
Bob sells his shares in TSLA to cash in on recent gains.
Bob has lowered the price of TSLA.

Carol has a short position in TSLA.
Carol covers her short position, fearing a squeeze.
Carol has raised the price of TSLA.

Dan transfers money to his trading account.
Dan establishes a short position in TSLA, now that it's expensive again.
Dan has lowered the price of TSLA.

Why is anyone having trouble understanding how this works?