Always do what lets you sleep. My life has been a stress nightmare for *other* reasons, but I haven't been blinking at 12% daily swings in my portfolio, which is probably why I can beat the markets long-term...
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
anthonyj
Stonks
I think so. I bought 10 $300 10/26 contracts on Monday before they announced the early earnings date. Paid $350 in total and netted about $17k in a couple days. With this stock, you just never know. There could be an announcement next week for privatization (Elon leveraging his position in SpaceX to buy more stock in Tesla maybe) and the stock would rocket. Who knows! Sometimes I feel like Elon would rather be living in a cardboard box than let the shorts win, lol!
It never was the financial model, though. State road funding in most states is already mostly from "general taxation" (sales tax, income tax).
I do think we should have something more "user-pays" because this government subsidy for roads basically biases people in favor of cars and against trains.
An odometer tax for everyone would be OK. A flat fee per EV registered is insane and abusive, as it hurts the people who drive the least.
Of course. Just that the expectations were they'd be worst off for that, which did not materialize. This doesn't have so many implications for Ford's share price than it does for the economy in general.
That being said, it may be a stretch to take Ford's results as a litmus test, but ultimately it may seem as though the economy's predicted implosion due to import costs may be relativized in the context of otherwise strong economic fundamentals for the time being. Unless I haven't been listening well enough, wasn't it what the whole correction of this month mostly about? That and the Fed's tightening of policies? But it all boils down to the capacity of the economy to absorb these negatives without too much collateral.
All of this to say that a favorable economic sentiment helps support (at least psychologically) demand for Model 3 in the face of what bears would like everyone to think.
X Fan
Active Member
Agree...
FWIW: current discourse is closest to bitter 60’s/early 70’s until Reagan that I remember/lived through.
I believe part of the FUD Noise/“hate” of Tesla is that the company is associated with views that are despised by a good part of the country.
Comments in WSJ are brutal towards Tesla and I always debate back but the views are still there.
Good news is that Tesla’s performance/road map will win over the sceptics (regardless of party) and this vitriol will recede over time. The pickup in particular will assist in the view change.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Don't forget Nissan. They have 2 senators too, from TN
Dems taking over the house increases the chance of a deal on this. Its possible the federal tax credit may have a cut off MSRP. This is what happened in WA - vehicles above $42k didn't get sales tax exemption. This is done to reduce criticism that the rich people buying $100k cars are getting subsidies.
It's tempting to believe that Elon is playing "rope a dope" for a change, as opposed to "over promise and under deliver".
How can Q4 not be good? I finally want ValueAnalyst to post a Q4 poll and she is MIA.
Given that they admitted that they sandbagged projections for Gross Margin on Model 3 in Q3 specifically -- they said this on the earnings call -- I think I actually do believe he's doing this for a change.
Musk has tweeted about it a couple times, although not recently. Example:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Think there was one (mid?) last year about it too. Most recently, we've seen Tesla testing out towing with the Model 3 just a couple months ago:
Tesla Model 3 spotted testing towing capacity
So it looks like they're still planning it. And why wouldn't they? It's extra revenue (gotta keep those margins up!), very in-demand in Europe (esp. northern Europe), and unlike S/X (where if S doesn't suit your needs, you can get an X instead), there's no other similar-priced alternative, and won't be for a couple years.
So long as it's not designed for heavy loads (which would require a rear suspension alteration), it should just be a minor difference in general assembly, so no real complication to production. And they'd probably get an 80+% profit margin on it.
Just watched (skimmed) the Future Investment Initiative day 3 video. No mention of Tesla. Honestly given the current climate around the Kingdom I think we are better off without any kind of announcement. Although I wouldn’t mind if Tesla sold them a bunch of solar and powerpacks.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Obviously actual civil war isn't going to happen - but significant political unrest like in the 60s can't be ruled out. High income inequality and stagnant income for the majority will be the catalyst along with a lot of social issues that are getting more air. People who have been marginalized want big changes where as a large section of the population fears any change. It can get ugly.
X Fan
Active Member
Lol @ Gasparino...:what a bandwagon arse
ZachF
Active Member
Also note, in 2020, when revenues are $45-50 billion, and cashflow of ~$3b yearly, Tesla could do one of three things:
Continue to use cashflow to pay off debt, with it dropping to ~$6b, and debt is now a completely negligible ~12-15% of revenue.
Use the $3 billion in cashflow for even more capital spending, almost doubling it, and relative debt still declines.
Or raise $2 billion, be able to spend a huge amount on capex (+$5b from 2019 levels), and relative debt levels stay roughly the same.
We're watching the beginnings of a big snowball effect fellas.
Last edited:
I mean, of course they will. It's a given that they will remain at least, say, $42k permanently. That's how ASPs work. It's an average. When the $35k Model 3 appears, people aren't going to magically stop buying the LR, or AWD, or performance. And the vast majority of those buying the base RWD 3 will at least get some options--paint, if nothing else.
Realistically, I can't see the 'base' Model 3 having an ASP less than $38,500 (that's a $1k paint color plus 50% uptake on PUP--no metallic, no Autopilot, no FSD, no wheel upgrades). I think that's actually very conservative, and the average SR 3 will sell for at least $40k. It doesn't take a whole lot of $50k-$75k 3s to raise $38,500 or $40k to $42k-$45k And we haven't even seen all of the eventual Model 3 options introduced yet--air suspension, for example.
Not intending too. I like the market action thread, but i'm not a trader. Timing the market is way too complicated for me and maximizing financial return of investment not the primary goal. Think i'm in for the longer term.
My strategy is pretty boring. No options, no marging and although out of powder still in accumulating mood. Guess that might change into a holding pattern soon unless share price takes a deep dive again. The past six months or so made me channel more funds into TSLA then should be considered wise, but i'm happy with it.
If share price does go parabolic next week or next year, i might take some profits. In my opinion, shorts breaking ranks and sustained profitability and MSM perception change and TSLA being added to the S&P500 and all that within a short time frame without dilution gives possibility for fun since all potentially create large demand for shares. Not counting on it, not wishing for it, not hoping for it, not even thinking it is likely to happen, but high prices do seem to be in the realm of possibilities, while the downside from today's price looks limited. (from Tesla's operational point of view, macro's might be a different story). If share price doens't go parabolic i'm happy too.
He's been having a fight with a lot of the tslaq folk lately. How quickly they eat their own over there.
The 2025's are trading 88-89. Both bond and equity market seem far less enthralled with the quarter than we are.
(gross margin on the model 3 is the problem if there is one, but the market is also still looking cray)
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
My host country has an odometer tax. You wouldn't believe the number of broken odometers there are.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
