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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Always do what lets you sleep. My life has been a stress nightmare for *other* reasons, but I haven't been blinking at 12% daily swings in my portfolio, which is probably why I can beat the markets long-term...

The horrible situation to avoid is when a stock goes down so much all you can think is to sell to cut off the pain, but IF you had not been in the stock the entire time you would be giggling to the bank with the opportunity to buy it.
 
Musk has tweeted about it a couple times, although not recently. Example:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Think there was one (mid?) last year about it too. Most recently, we've seen Tesla testing out towing with the Model 3 just a couple months ago:

Tesla Model 3 spotted testing towing capacity

So it looks like they're still planning it. And why wouldn't they? It's extra revenue (gotta keep those margins up!), very in-demand in Europe (esp. northern Europe), and unlike S/X (where if S doesn't suit your needs, you can get an X instead), there's no other similar-priced alternative, and won't be for a couple years.

So long as it's not designed for heavy loads (which would require a rear suspension alteration), it should just be a minor difference in general assembly, so no real complication to production. And they'd probably get an 80+% profit margin on it.

A) Musk's tweet is from 2016, which is forever ago.
B) They did a bunch of towing with Model S in prep for providing a tow package for the Model X. Still no tow package for S that I'm aware of.

Don't get me wrong. I think it would be great and maybe they will do it for Europe since its common for cars to tow in Europe. I just wouldn't get your hopes up too much.
 
One thing I'll note is how Tesla has an incredible advantage over competition when it comes to trade-ins. If the average trade-in is for a car that has half the value proportionally to its competition, it directly affects M3's gross margins favorably.

Case in point: A M3 buyer (50k purchase) trades in an Honda Accord (12k trade in) vs A typical Honda Accord repeat buyer (25k purchase , 12k trade in). Tesla's financial hit on the trade-in is proportionally much less, as much as 50% less than legacy automakers.

So this willingness by a large part of the customer base to buy upscale from usual or previous purchase habits has huge implications in the initial years for Tesla. This advantage will wear down as repeat business settles in.
 
I came in 5 minutes late to the call but seem to have missed some things
1. No guidance on expected production, deliveries in q4
2. Some of the usual participants missing on call and several newer ones i hadnt heard of
3. No current production rate of Model3
4. No questions on financing of china factory
5. Although no batteries will be made in china in the beginning, will imported batterries face tariffs and has panasonic been approached about joining in future or will tesla produce batterries?
6. Expected qtr semi will begin production next year
Where do they get these analysts?
They did answer some of those throughout the call I think or in the letter. The one I remember for you is current rate is about 4200 or 4300 per week for m3. The stated they think 7k without too much more capex spend.
 
A) Musk's tweet is from 2016, which is forever ago.

It's almost as if I didn't write that I recall multiple tweets, and I believe the last one was around the middle of last year, but I didn't have time to go search Musk's entire twitter feed for towing-related tweets.

There obviously would not be any recent towing related tweets if they're getting close to release a tow package, due to a fear of Osborning existing sales.

B) They did a bunch of towing with Model S in prep for providing a tow package for the Model X. Still no tow package for S that I'm aware of.

What's your argument, that they were testing a tow package for the Model Y - a car built on a (partially) different platform - before even greenlighting the prototype for the Model Y?
 
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One thing I'll note is how Tesla has an incredible advantage over competition when it comes to trade-ins. If the average trade-in is for a car that has half the value proportionally to its competition, it directly affects M3's gross margins favorably.

Case in point: A M3 buyer (50k purchase) trades in an Honda Accord (12k trade in) vs A typical Honda Accord repeat buyer (25k purchase , 12k trade in). Tesla's financial hit on the trade-in is proportionally much less, as much as 50% less than legacy automakers.

So this willingness by a large part of the customer base to buy upscale from usual or previous purchase habits has huge implications in the initial years for Tesla. This advantage will wear down as repeat business settles in.

Huh? In both cases the trade in is sold, theoretically for a profit. No financial hit, and no impact on vehicle GM.
 
One thing I'll note is how Tesla has an incredible advantage over competition when it comes to trade-ins. If the average trade-in is for a car that has half the value proportionally to its competition, it directly affects M3's gross margins favorably.

Case in point: A M3 buyer (50k purchase) trades in an Honda Accord (12k trade in) vs A typical Honda Accord repeat buyer (25k purchase , 12k trade in). Tesla's financial hit on the trade-in is proportionally much less, as much as 50% less than legacy automakers.

So this willingness by a large part of the customer base to buy upscale from usual or previous purchase habits has huge implications in the initial years for Tesla. This advantage will wear down as repeat business settles in.

The Tesla stat that most buyers are < 35k$ trade-ins *could* be meaningless, as it could be the case for all vehicles in the model 3 price range. They would at least need to compare to the average of similar cases to be meaningful.
 
They've talked about that here in CA as well (I think they might have actually already approved it, but maybe not implemented it). The logic being that so much of state DOT revenues are based on gas taxes, and with no gas taxes being paid for by EV drivers - then no tax. It's clearly true that if EVERYONE moved to an EV and that was the financial model to pay for DOT road upgrades, repairs, etc, we'd ALL be screwed for sho.. So, something will have to change in the future as the percentage of EV vehicles on the road move from 1-2 to 4 to 8% of the overall vehicles.

At least here in CA I think it was only something like a 125$ additional fee on the annual registration. Not TOO big a deal.
Yes, it is to offset losses in gas tax. When I checked the numbers it isn't that unreasonable. But since I don't drive that much it is more than I am currently paying through gas tax. And when you don't have much money even the California $125/yr is noticeable.

OTOH, there's no pollution tax for the effect on health from tailpipe emissions. By switching to an EV I am helping reduce healthcare costs.

Maybe I'm just grousing. But EV specific taxes already exist on a state-by-state basis is the real point I was trying to make. And, yes, that does broach the larger topic of how to pay for road maintenance.
 
It's almost as if I didn't write that there were multiple tweets, and I believe the last one was around the middle of last year, but I didn't have time to go search Musk's entire twitter feed for towing-related tweets.

There obviously would not be any recent towing related tweets if they're getting close to release a tow package, due to a fear of Osborning existing sales.



What's your argument, that they were testing a tow package for the Model Y - a car built on a (partially) different platform - before even greenlighting the prototype for the Model Y?

A) Sorry, I did miss your comment on multiple tweets.
B) I thought final decision was to build Model Y on the same platform, so yes that was my argument.
 
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Obviously actual civil war isn't going to happen - but significant political unrest like in the 60s can't be ruled out. High income inequality and stagnant income for the majority will be the catalyst along with a lot of social issues that are getting more air. People who have been marginalized want big changes where as a large section of the population fears any change. It can get ugly.
You mean income inequality like during the industrial revolution? Or during the depression? Or during the civil rights movement? Or countless other times in our history? It's nothing new folks. We have been struggling with these issues since the founding of our nation.

...and this isn't the place for political rants, so I will drop it.

Dan
 
So, I actually agree with all of these tech claims?
Don't say you disagree with me when you give a list of things I agree on!

I just think it's irrelevant to the question of when we'll get full self driving, because they're not looking at the problem of how to teach the neural network to drive. Teaching it to recognize objects is all very well, but it still has to learn how to drive. When Tesla starts working on that, *then* I'll get optimistic.

(This is actually the typical way problems develop for Tesla. Tesla's biggest problems, such as poor communications and lack of service centers, are only hard because management was persistently unable/unwilling to recognize that they were issues. The moment management figures out what they need to do, the problems will start getting solved. Just as the Service Centers willl hopefully start getting built now that Musk has noticed the deficiency on the map -- but the problem was building up for five years because they didn't know there was a problem and weren't working on it.)

I think the evidence shows that Cruise is farthest ahead in the conceputal problem of figuring out *how to teach a neural network to drive well*, even if they have a worse neural network. Everyone else is a joke. though.
I think it's pretty important to be able to discern pedestrians, bicyclists and moving objects in order to "drive well". Autopilot already handles these pretty well.

GM's self-driving car reportedly has trouble recognizing pedestrians

V9 has pedestrians!
 
It never was the financial model, though. State road funding in most states is already mostly from "general taxation" (sales tax, income tax).

I do think we should have something more "user-pays" because this government subsidy for roads basically biases people in favor of cars and against trains.

An odometer tax for everyone would be OK. A flat fee per EV registered is insane and abusive, as it hurts the people who drive the least.
In CA I don't think that is the case. Over 85% of the USER fee taxes, which are the fuel taxes that the STATE applies, go to the highway and transportation funding. Additionally, the sales taxes ON gas and diesel (1-4.5%) contribute to these funds, but wouldn't represent the same nominal contribution that the USER fee taxes contribute. There IS some additional funding that comes from the federal government that goes into these accounts (and yes, the CA as well as other state gov'ts have often raided (borrowed) from these accounts for other funding purposes but the flow of funds is directly from the USER fee taxes into the applicable transportation fund.

There is also additional funding INTO the highway and transportation accounts, but in CA at least that is not the primary contributor. Any information to the contrary would be interesting to read.

Also, in the most recent increase of the STATE gas USER FEE's per gallon, on gasoline and diesel (user fee), I believe 100% of THOSE funds were dedicate to one single road maintenance program fund from which i believe that the user fees were the only source of funds for that program.
 
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SP will take off one day, probably when we least expect it.

This pop could occur when they announce October US sales compared again. If exponential, we should see an even more dramatic comparison. However, part of me says their capacity is tapped already. Hopefully they continue to take sales away from competitors for the same dramatic effect in bar chart form. A move from 4th to 2nd or 1st place would further demonstrate this trend as claimed.
 
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You win. :) Sound your horn so that the potential people on the other side of the turn know you're coming and can get out of the way. (or if they can't get out of the way, can sound their horns back at you...) Yep!

This is actually the reason cars have horns...
And to think I always thought it was there to press very hard when the car in front of me won't go. I learn so many new things on this board.
 
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