TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

Uh, not sure which call or earnings you're referring to but in the yesterday call Ford has said very clearly that import duties (metals especially aluminum) have cost it nearly 1 BILLION in profits. So, it's a thing. They also said, that for their profitability at least, if it doesn't resolve it's only going to get worse for them and other domestics.

"A Ford spokesman told the Free Press that Hackett was referencing Ford internal forecasts of an increase of about $1 billion in steel and other metal costs in 2018 and 2019 due to tariffs."

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2018/09/26/donald-trump-tariffs-ford-motor/1431916002/

 

[Rarity]

It's obvious TSLA will join S&P index next year. By then even if shorts don't buy, just the passive funds can drive TSLA to a lot higher.

Tough to gauge the impact of S&P 500 inclusion. Musk himself noted that many index funds do a good business lending out their shares to shorts -- I think he mentioned Blackrock. I never thought it legal, but you are seeing some administration fee-free index funds pop up nowadays. Probably because they can lend out those shares.

 

[EVNow]

So this is pretty unpopular, but you deserve to have an EV tax. We all do. Since we aren't buying gas, than the portion of the gas price that would go into road maintenance wouldn't be paid. And since we are using the roads..... you get the idea. Now, the rebuttal to this is of course, "semi trucks should be paying the majority of road repair because they damage it exponentially more than cars do!". And this is very true, but not the way the system is setup right now. We use the roads, we pay to maintain the roads. That is fair.

In WA we not only pay a yearly tax - we also got sales tax exemption (that works out to about 30 years of yearly tax)

The basic issue with road and other infrastructure is that gas taxes are woefully inadequate. The right public policy would be to heavily tax gas, like they do in rest of the world. This would help make upgrade our near "3rd world" infrastructure to more like the first world.

 

[mongo]

Tough to gauge the impact of S&P 500 inclusion. Musk himself noted that many index funds do a good business lending out their shares to shorts -- I think he mentioned Blackrock. I never thought it legal, but you are seeing some administration fee-free index funds pop up nowadays. Probably because they can lend out those shares.

Unless the % of shares shorted goes up, the acquisition of stock by index funds should only reduce the free float and push things up due to the purchasing. Maybe?

 

[EVNow]

So, is TSLA going down because … AMZN had a great earnings report ?

 

[Leo9]

Both AMZN and GOOGL missed on revenue.

 

[Tslynk67]

So, is TSLA going down because … AMZN had a great earnings report ?

$AMZN down over 6% now - $GOOGL was tanking too... I don't get it either...

 

[tivoboy]

I would say, say goodbye to 300$ tomorrow, and I don't mean that we won't see it again.

 

[KD2018]

Weird - big $AMZN beat and they're 6% down AH...?

Edit: same now for Google (Alphabet), bit beat and down...

$TSLA being dragged down too...

I don't understand stock markets at all

Alphabet and Amazon missed the top line number.

 

[tivoboy]

Similarly to what?
Europe/UK also adds the overhead of Tilburg. For China, the tariff induced changes were applied practically real time. Up and down.

Tariffs, yes, currency fluctuations - not so much.

 

[Tslynk67]

Both AMZN and GOOGL missed on revenue.

How can EPS be up when revenue is down? Blah, I'm going to bed.

 

[Todd Burch]

How does this not include a square that says "Elon talks about how a small change in the horizontal axis of an S-curve has a huge effect on the Y-axis"?

Where was this yesterday while we were listening in?

View attachment 346924

 

[Ludalicious]

A mini-rally is going on. I wonder whether we'll end up higher than open of 317. 314 as I type.

Also bullish pinbar. Unfortunately it's also undersold now. Will wait for confirmation candle but it looks very promising. Other than that I would double down before getting out.

 

[Leo9]

It's just a tiny miss on revenue really. They both beated by a huge margin on EPS. Not the end of the world.

EDIT: AMZN guidance is way lower than consesus.. That is not good.

 

[RobStark]

FWIW: current discourse is closest to bitter 60’s/early 70’s until Reagan that I remember/lived through.

If we had Facebook,Twitter,and WSJ.com comment section during Watergate we would have just as many anonymous death threats as today, if not more.

Ditto middle of Vietnam War, Ditto middle of Civil Rights Movement, Ok maybe not the 50's.

Point is ripping someone a new one or threatening to kill them face to face is a lot harder than over the internet.

Covering politics 24/7 over the internet, 24 hr cable networks etc makes things seem much worse than "the good old days."

 

[shlokavica22]

Let's hope tomorrow is a repeat of yesterday- TSLA safe haven in the sea of red.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Who cares about the other guys? I was asking what everyone thinks the P/E ratio should be for Tesla? If Tesla becomes perma-profitable then the market measurement becomes their P/E ratio. My point was I believe this may be what is driving some of the lower analyst valuations. I think they are picking a point between auto companies and tech companies; between single digits and 20-30. If we go out over the next 3 quarters for a total of $8-10 we are in the 30-40 P/E range. That is as high as I see Tesla going. If we use 35 then we need a total of $12 in earnings by the end of 3Q19 to get to a $420 SP.

So long as they’re growing like this, the P/E ratio is going to be (and should be) very high, because it’s pricing in future growth. Even going forward, once it’s more stable, I wouldn’t expect the types of P/E ratio we see with other OEMs because of Tesla’s sky-high margins.

 

[tivoboy]

Similarly to what? (edit due to your edit)
Europe/UK also adds the overhead of Tilburg. For China, the tariff induced changes were applied practically real time. Up and down.

Edit with numbers:
Current S100D price for UK: 93,150 pounds including 16,000 in VAT. 77,150 without VAT which is 98,172 US dollars.
US S100D price is $96,500 with $1,200 destination fee, $95,300 without
So $2,872 price difference to get to UK.

you mean my edit from NOT to NO? Couldn't have been a material edit.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Thank you THANK YOU for taking me back to my unhappy place.

When I was twelve, I helped my daddy build a bomb shelter in our basement - wait wrong story.

Back in 1997, I bought 25K worth of apple at 30 CENTS (SA). I sold it in the next few years and paid for graduate school. On my trading wall I have a post-it that reads - "DON'T SELL THE NEXT APPLE EARLY".

I stopped doing that math about 20 million ago.

My god.

 

[Reciprocity]

Elon loves safety!

Living customers tend to buy more stuff than dead ones apparently. If you save a persons life, they might become a customer for life, so you want to make sure they live for a very long time. Just good business.