TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

So I described the person he sells that call option to?

Yes. And while you have the basic gist of options, there are some nuances that you're missing. Unfortunately I don't have the time to go into them at length, but I'm sure some other more experienced poster here could explain them. I just wanted to make note of it.

In brief -- you can still profit off of call options if the stock doesn't reach the strike price (but moves upward after you purchase the option) as long as you sell to close the option before the option expires. Options expire on the noted expiration date at market close. You don't need to "exercise" a call option to make a profit, but rather can sell to close the option and reap the same amount of profit as if you had exercised the option. You only "lose the lot" below the strike price if you let the option expire worthless.

Generally, I would say avoid short-term options if you are risk averse. They are much more volatile than longer term options.

I'm sure even I got some of that slightly wrong -- after all, I've still got my water wings on myself. ;-)

 

[Tslynk67]

First resistance level is at $348. Let's see what happens.

Bang on, bro'!

So why are the macros up today? I expected it to be negative or neutral given the mid-terms??

 

[Gavyne]

Elon in a good mood, great sign.

 

[shlokavica22]

Bang on, bro'!

So why are the macros up today? I expected it to be negative or neutral given the mid-terms??

It bounced just after he mentioned it.
It seems a new test will happen soon and I hope it will brake this time.

 

[SO16]

BMW's i4 Electric Vehicle Should Give Tesla a Run for Its Money

So .... here comes the competition with a car that won't be out till 2020? Add to that we have no idea what the actual specs are or what it will look like BUT as "The Street" says should give Tesla a run for it's money. Give me a break .... EVERYONE should email this writer and let him know what a moronic story and premise this actually is ... IF it was already spec'd out with a price and street date and compared favorably then he would have something to write about.

Sheesh ... makes me want to buy MORE TSLA ...

Cheers to the longs.

Add (but it won’t), to the end of the title.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elon Musk on Twitter
If I am shorting TSLA I would be really scared these days.
Apparently, it only took Elon to just disappear from Twitter for a few days then come back and tweet some *sugar* that no one understands, and is completely not related to TSLA to move the stock up.

This is a reference to Foundation by Isaac Asimov but I guess the real question is why.

 

[SpaceCash]

SHE BULLISH AF

 

[ggr]

This is a reference to Foundation by Isaac Asimov but I guess the real question is why.

I think he's suggesting he can predict the future. Sounds positive to me.

 

[S3XY]

No, because none of this is remotely relevant. Remember, this is in the context of *trying to build a company town* because there isn't any *housing*. And trying to secure water rights to build the company town, because housing is *currently* limited by water rights. (You think the developers would let themselves be limited by that if water was cheap for them!?!?)

This is all wildly more expensive than buying vacant land in Buffalo (you have probably never looked at how cheap it is) and not having to build your own housing development (which is actually pretty expensive) because there already is housing in Buffalo and there already is a city water supply.



Good luck with that. I suggest you try it. This is one of those times I know you're not from the US, because you've never looked into the politics of buying out farmland or water rights.

Basically, you have no idea how expensive that would be. (Among other things, water rights are often *use specific*, and diverting it from farmland to residential would probably require a change to state law.)

Since you don't know much about US land prices, US water rights law (I admit I don't know every state's law -- they vary), I didn't find anything relevant in your post. It was an extremely low quality post which ignored the primary issue -- it is far more expensive to build company housing in Sparks to support the necessary factory labor than it is to put a factory in Buffalo which already has infrastructure (and *still* has cheap land).

The difference in *future* solar panel costs doesn't even come close to making up for it.

It's not normal for you to write such poorly-thought-out posts.

I also suggest looking up the average cost of a house in Reno vs. in Buffalo. Or you could look up the cost of a vacant lot in Reno vs. in Buffalo. Point is, Buffalo is either the same price or cheaper.

There's also a Ford stamping plant just up the road that might be available around the time the Tesla pickup is ready for production.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I think he's suggesting he can predict the future. Sounds positive to me.

Alternate theory: He is saying the current system will inevitably collapse and he must found a secret society to preserve humanity's knowledge during the coming new Dark Ages! Sounds negative to me!

It's been a very long time since I have read the Foundation saga.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think he's suggesting he can predict the future. Sounds positive to me.

I only understood the To be or not to be bit...

Nice to see him back to his whacky self on Twitter. Also worth noting that he's getting followed by more and more people, 23.5m now.

It bounced just after he mentioned it.
It seems a new test will happen soon and I hope it will brake this time.

348 was indeed breached and looked to be pushing it, but a general macro dip came along at the wrong moment.

Whatever, $TSLA very strong today.

 

[tivoboy]

He is on the sell side i.e. short call option. That means time work in his favor and if tsla closes below $350 at expiration he collects full $7.25 premium.

I wouldn't suggest selling uncovered calls though. TSLA can run up rather quickly and you may get a margin call. Selling covered calls however has very well defined risk where you just capped your potential upside i.e. forced to sell your TSLA shares at strike price if TSLA goes way above the strike price.

I'm sort of replying to both questions here:
Well, technically on a call sale i've already collected the premium..but yes at expiration (option selling ends end of regular trading hours Friday) if its' above 350$, stock is called away - most likely. You keep the 725$ per contract, receive the 350$ per share strike price and decide what to do with the $$.

If it's under 350$ at close friday, keep the $725 per contract, keep the stock - repeat.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think he's suggesting he can predict the future. Sounds positive to me.

OMFG, you mean he really was mis-leading investors on M3 production numbers??

 

[Cherry Wine]

I only understood the To be or not to be bit...

Nice to see him back to his whacky self on Twitter. Also worth noting that he's getting followed by more and more people, 23.5m now.



348 was indeed breached and looked to be pushing it, but a general macro dip came along at the wrong moment.

Whatever, $TSLA very strong today.

The action of this stock post-ER is night-and-day from September/October (pre-ER). Incredibly resilient to macros and negative press. Very encouraging.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm sort of replying to both questions here:
Well, technically on a call sale i've already collected the premium..but yes at expiration (option selling ends end of regular trading hours Friday) if its' above 350$, stock is called away - most likely. You keep the 725$ per contract, receive the 350$ per share strike price and decide what to do with the $$.

If it's under 350$ at close friday, keep the $725 per contract, keep the stock - repeat.

Do you just buy back in immediately if called away? (You personally.)

 

[Driver Dave]

BMW's i4 Electric Vehicle Should Give Tesla a Run for Its Money

So .... here comes the competition with a car that won't be out till 2020? Add to that we have no idea what the actual specs are or what it will look like BUT as "The Street" says should give Tesla a run for it's money. Give me a break .... EVERYONE should email this writer and let him know what a moronic story and premise this actually is ... IF it was already spec'd out with a price and street date and compared favorably then he would have something to write about.

Sheesh ... makes me want to buy MORE TSLA ...

Cheers to the longs.

These articles are like groundhog day.

They've been saying the same thing for *years*...

At this point, it's like saying "Nokia's smartphone should give Apple a run for its money"

 

[AudubonB]

NON-moderator warning:
I followed your Tw-links - PLEASE ALL NOTE that a bunch of those so-called "Verified Elon Musk" comments are not his - they're coming from "alovelikepi".

Caveat lector, all.

(If those are gone it means that Twitter's scam-sweep is working.)

 

[Alphacrux]

This is a reference to Foundation by Isaac Asimov but I guess the real question is why.

Asimovs Zeroth Law of Robotics “A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.”

 

[SpeedGoat]

You mean the kind of myth where Warren Buffet pays less tax rate than his secretary or that Romney paid only 10% tax or Trump didn't pay tax for decades ?

Went and checked the source. It's not actually a measure of "tax burden", it's a measure of "household taxes", which they define as "income taxes and employee social security contributions".

http://darp.lse.ac.uk/resources/books/GrowingUnequal_OECD.pdf

Most of the wealthiest Americans (note: I don't think most people have much of an issue with the "top 10%", I think it's mainly the top 1%, 0,1%, 0,01% or less that people focus on) don't get most of their household income from taxable wages; they get it from capital gains. And the capital gains rate is much lower than the top income tax bracket. Or to put it another way: Elon's "household taxes" should be zero.

The US has relatively low tax rates on capital gains and so in some really extreme cases that can result in extremely wealthy individuals paying taxes at very low rates, but that is not typical. The top .1% of the US population pays a higher effective tax rate than the 1%, which in turns pays a higher rate than any other income bracket (save the top .1% obviously) .

I noted the 2013 date. Tax codes have changed considerably. There’s no doubt we spend revenues regressively, including a big share to the military.

This is addressed in the second link in my post, which is also where the above chart is located.

Looks like cherry-picked data. Income tax bracket on high incomes in Sweden is 60%. Taxation in Sweden - Wikipedia Not to mention every country in your graph except the US somehow managed to pay for healthcare for all it's citizens, not to mention the roads. Have you seen the roads in Germany? Coming back to the US makes you think you just landed in a war zone. These roads are clearly the result of shell attacks.

This is also addressed in my second link:

America’s levies rise with income, but not to particularly great heights. In 2016 the top rate of income tax averaged about 46% once state taxes were included, less than France’s 55% or Sweden’s 57%. So what makes its taxes so progressive? The answer is twofold.

First, America has no value-added tax, a levy on consumption. Because VATs are flat taxes, they are regressive. In any given year VATs cost the poor a higher fraction of their income than the rich, because high earners tend to save more. The average rate of VAT in the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, is about 19%. Many American states levy sales taxes, which are similar to VATs, but are on average less than 10%.

Second, America’s generous deductions and credits, or “tax expenditures” in the jargon, are good for the working poor. Chief among them is the earned-income tax credit (EITC), a wage top-up for low earners. The child tax credit, a refund for parents, is another. In dollar terms the rich do best from tax expenditures, because of breaks for mortgage interest and employer-provided health insurance. Yet as a percentage of income, the poor benefit most. In 2013 tax expenditures boosted the incomes of the poorest fifth of households by almost 12%, according to the Congressional Budget Office. A single mother with two children earning two-thirds of the average income pays overall taxes of just 13% in America according to the OECD. In egalitarian Sweden the charge is almost 34%.

This is all I am going to say on tax policy in this thread as it obviously isn't the place for it. I hope this is sufficient to disabuse anyone of the counterfactual notion that the US's tax policy is not highly progressive.

 

[shlokavica22]

Do you just buy back in immediately if called away? (You personally.)

Usually put option is sold in order to acquire the stock back.
However, at this period of time (when continuous uptrend is going on), this strategy (selling covered calls + selling cash covered puts on the way back) is not the best one to choose.