TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Looks like today's fourth test of $348 is coming up!!!

(literally thinking the same thing as EVNow at the same time)

Finally breached ?!

 

[SpeedGoat]

On a more thread relevant note, I suspect TSLA is finally moving beyond the reach of the short sellers. The FUD narrative was powerful absent earnings and absent large-scale production of the Model 3. Now every day/week/month that passes there are more Tesla owners on the roads and talking to their friends, family, and co-workers. That isn't something you can combat on Twitter or with a handful of click-bait media stories. The Tesla story is moving beyond car enthusiasts, tech enthusiasts, and the investor crowd into the broader general consciousness.

I picked some up at 252 and obviously wish I had gone bigger in retrospect.

 

[Rarity]

Your image literally lists the types of taxes included and capital gains taxes is not in the list.

In order to make the tax burden look like it falls on the wealthy, they had to include things like estate taxes and even corporate taxes.

In the US, capital gains taxes are included in income tax.

 

[Cobbler]

I'm gonna sell 20% of my TSLA shares when SP is above 360. We had a nice steady run-up from the $250 zone. There'll be a huge bull vs bear fight with bloody FUD coming and I expect the SP to drop back to $330 - $310?
Everything is going too good to be true.
After that, I assume Elon will send tissues instead of short shorts to the bears, because a lot of tears are going to be shed

(based on my own pure paranoia - not fact(s) )

 

[UncaNed]

Don't capital gains come from investing in a company which creates jobs (employees who pay taxes) along with corporate income which is also taxed? If so, what is wrong with incentivizing investment that produces more overall tax revenue?

Not necessarily. Don't things like buying and holding real estate or something inherently non-productive also give the lower capital gains tax rate? That's not exactly investing in building a factory or creating jobs, it's just a tax write-off.

 

[mongo]

Not necessarily. Don't things like buying and holding real estate or something inherently non-productive also give the lower capital gains tax rate? That's not exactly investing in building a factory or creating jobs, it's just a tax write-off.

Who would do that when they can buy TSLA???

(good point, not all investment is useful)

 

[anthonyj]

Geez this $348 resistance is insane. Day traders are making millions.

 

[UncaNed]

Who would do that when they can buy TSLA???

(good point, not all investment is useful)

I like the way you think!

 

[MikeQ]

This is the main problem. We are literally saying lazy income (capital gains) is preferred to income earned through hard work (wages).

The other way to look at it is what is the disposable income as a % of income ?

ps : Compared to what FDR proposed and Ike, a Republican, signed - this is outright robbery.

Another way to look at it is that we are encouraging people to invest in growing our future. If "lazy income" didn't have a tax advantage, I might choose to put my money into something other than a stock for an electric car company that is pushing us towards a sustainable future.

Also, most people gained their wealth through wages and are investing some portion of those wages into "lazy income". What else would you expect them to do with it?

Even Jeff Bezos was a wage earner at some point. I can't believe the way people like to vilify the rich.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Geez this $348 resistance is insane. Day traders are making millions.

Day traders have probably made billions the past 2 years while the SP has been wildly bouncing between $250 and $350 or so. It's a sad state of affairs when the best way to make money in this world is to play the market like r/wallstreetbets does instead of invest for the long term.

 

[AWDtsla]

What exactly do you mean by "control alpha" then? If you are speaking of alpha as a parameter of distribution and not hypothesis testing, then it is ambiguous what you mean to "control." As a parameter, alpha simply describes a distribution. It is not something to be controlled.

alpha = Pareto index. control implies limit the value of. Which would be obvious if you actually read what I said instead of what you wanted to hear. From Pareto distribution - Wikipedia "When this distribution is used to model the distribution of wealth, then the parameter α is called the Pareto index."

Progressive taxation is precisely an attempt to change the value of the Pareto index. Whether people know it or not. As alpha approaches 0, you'd have theoretically ideal communism. As alpha approaches infinity you would get ideal capitalism.

The value of extreme value distributions is that is gives us a way to analyze the extremes such as the 0.01% tail of distribution. I actually do this work as a statistician. I am aware of nothing in extreme value theory that would suggest that on must focus on the 10% tail and ignore the other tails. Where one places the focus of analysis is entirely up to the aims of the analysis.

So I am reacting to your awkward use of technical language that seemed to be used as an insult to others on this this list. Who exactly were you suggesting had a third grade grasp of statistics?

How is this even close to what I said? It's not.

 

[brian45011]

Do you just buy back in immediately if called away? (You personally.)

Start selling weekly puts under the assigned price.

 

[SpaceCash]

I've taken the time to do an in depth chart analysis for you all. Even though the price is volatile as always, it has a very clear trend: hella up

 

[brian45011]

depends on where I see the stock going. I might just re-buy if a push has been made (but I don't see 357.25$ as an example for next week, we have another STRONG resistance at 355$.. that's why I like this particular pick.

And, I still see something lower (covers head and face and protects eyes while saying) for either macro or micro issues. Would re-buy then.
Also depends on where I hold the stock and where the calls were sold. If in my IRA/SEP/i401K I'll don't have any tax impact for these weeklies. But I trade this and all the other stocks in about 10 different accounts I manage so the scenario can't always be the same.

Hedge writers have a strong incentive to keep the share price below ~360 through 3-1-19.

 

[SpaceCash]

I've taken the time to do an in depth chart analysis for you all. Even though the price is volatile as always, it has a very clear trend: hella up

Really obvious shorting going on rn

 

[Artful Dodger]

Really obvious shorting going on rn

NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 down sharply. Anybody hear any news?

 

[Cherry Wine]

NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 down sharply. Any body hear any news?

People getting out to avoid midterm uncertainty is my guess.

 

[UncaNed]

Another way to look at it is that we are encouraging people to invest in growing our future. If "lazy income" didn't have a tax advantage, I might choose to put my money into something other than a stock for an electric car company that is pushing us towards a sustainable future.

Also, most people gained their wealth through wages and are investing some portion of those wages into "lazy income". What else would you expect them to do with it?

Even Jeff Bezos was a wage earner at some point. I can't believe the way people like to vilify the rich.

All right... then why not give the same low capital gains tax rate to lower and middle class laborers and everyone else so they keep more of all their money too? Surely they'll invest some portion of those wages into "lazy income".

 

[RobStark]

Trade journal AutomotiveNews.com is adding an image to its Fact Checking story.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hedge writers have a strong incentive to keep the share price below ~360 through 3-1-19.

Unlikely: at this point they could easily have bought protective CALL options to cover that eventuality (the $920 notes require about 25k contracts - the January 2019 expiry alone has 221k open CALL options) - and maybe even more than that to nicely profit from any move beyond $360.

That's a much easier and a much more standard approach than to keep the stock price under $360 for the next earnings call, for the probable Moody's upgrade after the earnings call, and the probably S&P 500 inclusion mid next year, for which even more arbitrageurs might be buying after the next earnings call ...