TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[hobbes]

Never thought that would happen, but that feels right and he also has the balls to just do it.

What exactly feels right about it?

To me this is a short-sighted, spontaneous reaction adequate for a 4-year old, not a leader of a superpower, for whom it has become a trademark. No strategy, no principles. Even if it should by accident have a positive outcome for Tesla for now, doesn´t make it right IMHO.

 

[scaesare]

The headlight treatment is just fine.

Obviously this is all subjective, so no correct answer.

They make the vehicle look slightly bug-like… don't match the proportions/style of the rest of the vehicle, IMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Trump has a handful of elite foreign cars sprinkled around his various properties, according to his campaign." ... "Rounding out the fleet are two made in the USA: a Cadillac Escalade and a Tesla."

Meanwhile in actual Policy, Trump's EPA Administrator is actively trying to kill EVs:

Manufacturers Cheer Insane EPA Decision To Revoke California Waiver. Will Trump Kill The Electric Car -- Again? | CleanTechnica

 

[RobStark]

Obviously this is all subjective, so no correct answer.

They make the vehicle look slightly bug-like… don't match the proportions/style of the rest of the vehicle, IMO.

 

[ZachF]

I think we are rapidly approaching a situation like what was happening when we when off the gold standard completely and switched to the petroleum backed money system(1970s). It’s a dilemma of too big too fail as some might call it.

The resistance to change of financial system is much stronger then it was leaving the gold standard, and the consequences much larger as the US dollar is the global default currency.

This is a real politik situation that party politics are irrelevant.

As oil and gas value drops and sustains low value regardless of restrained or unrestrained production output, the dollar will also be low valued. This occurs as energy sources change, leading to our industrial equipment amd logistical systems run off these new energy sources. The value of those new energy sources grow as oil and gas decline.

A vast majority of all new energy capacity added is coming from sustainable energy, not fossil fuels. New vehicle purchase growth is exponential in electric cars, while gasoline cars is declining.

So the question for all of us is how will we transition as a nation (and globe) to this inevitable reality of a new energy economy without a complete meltdown of the global financial system? What happens to those nations whose significant portions of GDP come from oil and gas sales?

You do realize there is a huge negative correlation between the dollar and oil prices, right? A sustained drop in oil will be dollar positive, and massively positive for the US economy.

 

[humbaba]

ended up closing more in the red than I had expected. Looking forward to the end of the quarter.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:
Might be useful to remind all this is the TESLA thread. Lots of places elsewhere in TMC to discuss Other EVs.

==>No more discussion of Rivian here<==


Some of you need to get out more.....

 

[ZachF]

The headlight treatment is just fine.

It is brand defining not aping established players. People will hate it at first but be ok with it by Job1 and then will love it 10 years from now. Assuming Rivian survives that long.

As long as it gets its claimed ~230, ~300, and ~400 miles of EPA range I am ok sacrificing some Cd,CdA, and MPGe.

There will be plenty of electric crossovers for those that prefer crossovers.

R1S will be superior environmentally than Tahoe,Expedition, Escalade, Range Rover et al by a large margin.

I wish them luck, there's plenty of ICE marketshare that multiple new EV startups can eat up... And it's probably going to take startups to move us in as the traditional OEMs drag their feet over making large swathes of their assets stranded.

 

[Earlian]

What exactly feels right about it?

To me this is a short-sighted, spontaneous reaction adequate for a 4-year old, not a leader of a superpower, for whom it has become a trademark. No strategy, no principles. Even it should by accident have a positive outcome for Tesla for now, doesn´t make it right IMHO.

Hard to answer to such a sharp post, because i don't want to get drawn into a Trump discussion....

Just feels right not letting GM shutting down the factories in the US, while US taxpayers saved them years ago, if they also can shut down GM factories outside US. But yes, there are a lot facets to watch out for.

 

[viridi]

ended up closing more in the red than I had expected. Looking forward to the end of the quarter.

I imagine CNBC regurgitating the China story a few minutes before the close did not help.

 

[adiggs]

Meanwhile in actual Policy, Trump's EPA Administrator is actively trying to kill EVs:

Manufacturers Cheer Insane EPA Decision To Revoke California Waiver. Will Trump Kill The Electric Car -- Again? | CleanTechnica

Note that article is dated August 2018. Might be actively proceeding, but this particular update is months old.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hot damn! This is an electric SUV!

No sissy C pillar. No hugging the ground sedan-like.

Rivian Debuts R1S Electric SUV: Seats 7, Packs 180-kWh Battery

But would I rather wait for a Tesla? Ans is yes. It's the brand and everything along with (Superchargers, Tech lead, Trust, and Mission, Self-Explore mode?) and not so much the specs for me. Also, party because I need to absorb my last purchase so need to wait.

Tough road for anyone else (including GM) IMO.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Assuming anybody makes it there in a functioning state after being exposed to space radiation. I haven't heard that it's been solved. But still 7-10 years to go per Musk.

NASA and others are researching a number of possible ways to provide radiation protection during long durations space missions. How to Protect Astronauts from Space Radiation on Mars

 

[Curt Renz]

So what, they want to punish GM by removing the EV subsidy - amusing considering they make ****-all EV's anyway, or are they wanting to handicap Tesla by removing it for all EV's?

Trump cannot unilaterally rescind the electric car buyer income tax credit (subsidy). That must first be voted by the House of Representatives, then sent to the Senate.

Meanwhile, Tesla has already surpassed the 200,000-car threshold that begins the phase-out of the credit, and General Motors is nearly there.

Today I emailed those who represent me in Congress, and asked them to rewrite the law. My suggestion was that the credit should only be allowed for buyers of electric cars made in the USA, and with a common sunset date for all manufacturers rather than a set number of cars. Those Americans here who agree may also want to contact Congress.

EDIT: In a following post RobStark pointed out that the World Trade Organization would object to the made-in-America proviso. Nevertheless, the suggestion for a sunset date rather than a car count remains valid.

 

[heltok]

My thoughts on Amazon releasing AWS RoboMaker. Tesla is likely best positioned to use it, but they also likely are the ones who already have equivalent software. It will likely make it much easier for new EV startups to catch up on fleet learning. Development at the legacy as auto manufacturers might benefit from this, but they might be slow to adopt it. I think it is very much under appreciated who useful ROS can be and this might make it even better!

AWS RoboMaker - Amazon Web Services

 

[dondy]

Phil LeBeau has a good point that it seems inconceivable that Tesla would have been unable to raise capital anywhere.

However, when the discussion came to the short sellers being so vocal regarding Tesla's cash burn and inability to raise capital, he and the CNBC hosts failed to state the obvious that pushing this narrative in the media in itself was making it difficult for Tesla to raise capital.

In a not very distant future when Tesla is recognized as the single most important factor in averting climatic apocalypse and has passed trillion dollar valuation, I expect a book and a film detailing how malicious short sellers such as Jim Chanos were actively trying to bring about Tesla's bankruptcy with their self-fulfilling prophecy.

Entertaining and educative like the Big Short, except this time the few, smart short sellers are the bad guys.

"Media" push what they are told to push. The Wall Street wanted and still wants control over Tesla. It is the only american car company with some future. The only one.

Another aspect of financial pressure is to push Musk to do IPO of SpaceX. They want it BADLY. It is obvious for anybody with just a bit of brain cells that if to take only IP Tesla holds, it would be already enough to cover current debt all together. (as a reference VW offer during attempt of Tesla's privatization). It is obvious that refinancing would be possible even in the most difficult month May of 2018.But is obvious they would try to push "correction" measures on Musk as a side effect. For a good example one shouldn't look father than SEC:
It would be more of "independent" directors, some tricks with "financial supervision", and stock dilution by numerous rounds of stock offering.

 

[RobStark]

But would I rather wait for a Tesla? Ans is yes. It's the brand and everything along with (Superchargers, Tech lead, Trust, and Mission, Self-Explore mode?) and not so much the specs for me. Also, party because I need to absorb my last purchase so need to wait.

Tough road for anyone else (including GM) IMO.

As a consumer I concur.

As a market analyst there are large swaths of North American consumers that hate Elon Musk/Tesla.

Because Elon is "arrogant" because Tesla is "self-righteous" because Elon sat on Trump's advisory board etc etc etc.

No single company will have 100% North American market share.

BTW Electrify America should have a rather nice network by 2021.

 

[Dreadnought]

I'm not sure what isn't solved. Its been a decade or three, so the numbers are fuzzy, but what I remember is that it hinges on having enough mass to absorb the radiation. And excess mass is not good for rockets. Especially when attempting to leave a gravity well.

No citations unfortunately, but I also recall that we've been lucky so far that astronauts have been in either earth or moon shadow when a nice burst of solar radiation passes by. Which seems unlikely on a long trip to Mars given their relative frequency.

No citation here, either, and given Starship design changes possibly no longer valid but I believe to remember that the water supply serves double duty as radiation shelter.

 

[RobStark]

Today I emailed those who represent me in Congress, and asked them to rewrite the law. My suggestion was that the credit should only be allowed for buyers of electric cars made in the USA, and with a common sunset date for all manufacturers rather than a set number of cars. Those Americans here who agree may also want to contact Congress.

This violates WTO rules.

China got an exemption when they joined WTO as a developing country.

The Germans would surely file a WTO complaint if such a law were passed.

Or we could go the Trump route and tell Germany, the EU, and the WTO to go F themselves.

 

[dmunjal]

Meanwhile in actual Policy, Trump's EPA Administrator is actively trying to kill EVs:

Manufacturers Cheer Insane EPA Decision To Revoke California Waiver. Will Trump Kill The Electric Car -- Again? | CleanTechnica

Too late. The horse as left the barn as they say. It's like Obama trying to contain the fracking boom. Economics wins in the end.