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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I've been trading options for last 2 months or so.

I sold 12/07 $355 covered call @ $18/share in october after Q3 ER, and I sold $355 cash secured put @ $13/share last week. I intend to have one of the leg getting exercised (or, if TSLA is really close to $355 on 12/06 or 12/07 I would simply close the legs)

This is basically a condor without further out of the money insurance (or, insured by my cash / underlying TSLA holdings, which is in the $255 range), and with intention of getting exercised in both direction.

I use a small percentage of the profits for short term intraday / weekly call options lottery.

Tell me how I am gonna get screwed.

Market action:
TSLA was chugging along nicely, what is wrong with this icicle!
Untitled.png
 
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I've been trading options for last 2 months or so.

I sold 12/07 $355 covered call @ $18/share in october after Q3 ER, and I sold $355 cash secured put @ $13/share last week. I intend to have one of the leg getting exercised (or, if TSLA is really close to $355 on 12/06 or 12/07 I would simply close the legs)

This is basically a condor without further out of the money insurance (or, insured by my cash / underlying TSLA holdings, which is in the $255 range), and with intention of getting exercised in both direction.

I use a small percentage of the profits for short term intraday / weekly call options lottery.

Tell me how I am gonna get screwed.

Market action:
TSLA was chugging along nicely, what is wrong with this icicle!
View attachment 357503

Unless TSLA really takes off, you'll be able to buy back those calls anytime between now and Friday and still be up a substantial amount. The 355 12/7 is going for $11.10 right now, so you're still up $7 even after this morning's action. The theta is going to really eat at the premiums this week -- depends on how risky you want to play it.

Same story for the puts -- you're up over 50% right now; can buy to close anytime unless you want to rake in as much as you can.
 
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I think you have a lot of company. This guy, for example:

"All investors make mistakes from time to time, and I'm no exception. In my case, I consider my biggest investing mistake to be selling excellent stocks too early simply because they had gone up in price.

My best and worst investment of all time

One of the questions I get asked most often is "What is the best investment you've ever made?" Well, my answer has changed slightly in recent times (more on that in a bit), but for a long while it was an easy response. In 2011, I bought shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for about $23. If you look at Tesla's stock price history since then, it's easy to see why I consider this a particularly good call.

The natural follow-up question I often get is "OK, so what was your worst investment ever?"

The answer always catches people by surprise -- Tesla. Or, more specifically, selling Tesla when I did, and why I did, is what I consider to be my worst investment move ever.


Not long after I had bought my shares, in late 2012, Tesla's soon-to-be-released Model S sedan was unexpectedly named Motor Trend's "Car of the Year," and shares took off. When the stock had reached approximately $58 in mid-2013, I decided I'd better lock in my profits and get out.

Now, I had more than doubled my investment in a little over a year, and for a while that was my best-performing investment ever, which is why it was my answer for "best investment ever." On the other hand, I left tons of gains on the table, as Tesla trades for about $375 per share as I write this. Pulling the trigger and selling too early cost me more than $300 per share on a rather large investment by my standards.​

My Biggest Investing Mistake -- and How You Can Avoid It -- The Motley Fool

Fully agree. The hardest part at the stock market is to stay in and hold regardless how many multiples you made already. Forget what you made or lost in the past and look at the present and future. If there is a valid opportunity that your investment as of today will grow stay in if not go out.

Most people get distracted from what they made in the past but that does not count. It's the past and gone. The only part that counts is if your assessment of today gives you green or red light for the future.
 
OT



You're hitting Tesla's massive weak point: communications. TOTALLY BROKEN.

This is why TSLA is no longer a "forever" stock for me. I'll probably keep a little, but I'm slashing my position sometime in 2019-2020 if they can't get this *sugar* straightened out.
Neroden - don't do this to me. It's like Santa Clause retiring!
I promise to improve my communication if that helps to keep you in the game....:(
 
Fully agree. The hardest part at the stock market is to stay in and hold regardless how many multiples you made already. Forget what you made or lost in the past and look at the present and future. If there is a valid opportunity that your investment as of today will grow stay in if not go out.

Most people get distracted from what they made in the past but that does not count. It's the past and gone. The only part that counts is if your assessment of today gives you green or red light for the future.

Or if you have some goal you’ve reached. If you put money in hoping to get enough to.. say... buy a Model 3, and you’ve reached that goal, continuing to hold the stock might get you more money, but it won’t get you that Model 3 any sooner.
 
Got my e-mail - M3s coming to 2 UK showrooms on 5th Dec.

Neroden - will that do? I can do better...
well, he didn't say completely divest, so hopefully he will keep posting.

But I think it is a fair criticism of the company: Tesla makes a great product and Musk has demonstrated his ability to guide the company to making at scale and profit. Even deliveries appear to be improving (at least in terms of scaling up, not sure how they are tracking in terms of absolute numbers of delivery problems). But the communications seems to be an area that they just don't get.

Other than Musk appears to be moderating his social media postings (a small victory) the company still seems to be in the "we're a small startup where all of our customers love us and are desperate to get our product so we can coast on this communications thing" mind set. Whether its the absolute lack of clarity on order status (c'mon, that should be a simple, cheap and easy fix) or non-responsiveness to inquiries or lackluster PR. I get that they are busy and doing a lot of things. That's fine and dandy, but they aren't going to scale sales up with how they've been doing things.
 
Even I don't think the whole company is at that rate, but I think they're super close to it and will be there by the middle of December. Rate should be over 7500 heading for 8000 as we enter January.
This is overly optimistic. Remember, "minimal CAPEX for 7000", but "exponential complexity to go above that".
I do not believe we're at 7000 sustained. The last email said SOME teams are there, but some may not be. So, even if 7000 burst rate is reached, it may take several months to sustain it - with all the logistics and supplier changes that are needed.
8000 for January - highly unlikely IMO.
 
To say that Orange created the problem of 40% and ridiculed him for taking the credit for solving the problem he created is such a gross simplification and distortion of the issue at hand.

The above talking point is just liberal's spin from FAKE NEWS!

To be frank, I find it hard to believe that I am starting to defend Orange more and more and adopt his wording now. Which has not been my style, to say the least.
 
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OT



You're hitting Tesla's massive weak point: communications. TOTALLY BROKEN.

This is why TSLA is no longer a "forever" stock for me. I'll probably keep a little, but I'm slashing my position sometime in 2019-2020 if they can't get this *sugar* straightened out.
No longer a stock holder so maybe I shouldn't post here anymore but...

As to the communication issues you speak of. Yes, communications sucked during the Q3 push. They made dreadful mistakes that turned many people sour to the company. I think it is important to note that they realize this as well. Since taking delivery of my Model 3 in October I have heard many employees allude to as much. I also think it is important to note that the communication I have had with everyone has been amazing since taking delivery. I am having a service ranger come out tomorrow to fix a minor bug in the steering and the amount of texts and emails confirming the appointment and verifying the issue has been staggering. Since making the appointment they have agreed to look at another question I had as well as push the latest software update that I seem to be missing.

They know where their weaknesses are and from everything I have seen they are working to rectify them. Granted, they aren't there yet with deliveries but they seem to be taking steps to improve that with the trucking companies acquired etc. My delivery experience was horrible too but everything I have seen since has been stellar. I think they get this right.

Dan
 
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No longer a stock holder so maybe I shouldn't post here anymore but...

As to the communication issues you speak of. Yes, communications sucked during the Q3 push. They made dreadful mistakes that turned many people sour to the company. I think it is important to note that they realize this as well. Since taking delivery of my Model 3 in October I have heard many employees allude to as much. I also think it is important to note that the communication I have had with everyone has been amazing. I am having a service ranger come out tomorrow to fix a minor bug in the steering and the amount of texts and emails confirming the appointment and verifying the issue has been staggering. Since making the appointment they have agreed to look at another question I had as well as push the latest software update that I seem to be missing.

They know where their weaknesses are and from everything I have seen they are working to rectify them. Granted, they aren't there yet with deliveries but they seem to be taking steps to improve that with the trucking companies acquired etc. My delivery experience was horrible too but everything I has seen since has been stellar. I think they get this right.

Dan

To offer a counter-point: I got a flat tire 2 1/2 weeks ago tow truck came out and took the wheel that night, gave me a loaner, and said it would be taken to the Sunnyvale SC(so far, so good). That’s the last I’ve heard from them.

As an experiment, I’ve decided I’m not going to call them about it(at least for a month or two); just wait for them to call me. I’m curious to see if they ever do.
 
Tesla will be discounting cars delivered January onwards $3750 to make up for the tax credit. Elon will say that margins have improved so they will be able to do it. Watch
It will be wiser to simply include a high margin option (PUP?) into the base price, thus providing extra value to the customer at very low cost to Tesla.
 
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