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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Already diagnosed, how's that for a quick feedback loop?

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Apologies for double posting.

Last week my tire exploded on the highway. Tesla has it towed to Costco tire center (for free). Was quick and easy.

Costco failed to tell me that my rim was very bent, so I’ve been driving with a horribly bent rim. Brought it into Tesla this morning without an appointment, they threw it on a lift to show me the damage. They gave me loaner wheels to use for as long as it takes me to find nice replacement 21s. All for free!

They also had 4 trailers unloading new Tesla’s and one loading up used trade ins. Absolute insanity. This is in Paramus NJ.

Q4 will be another surprise.
 
Still OT... but its not trading hours, right (well, in the US anyway)

OT AF.



While shopping for my current vehicle several years ago, I was adamant that whatever I purchased would have a manual transmission. I'm not as hardcore as some, but I'm definitely a "car guy", have in the past decried the decline of manual transmissions, and enjoy the process of and greater precision allowed by manual shifting -- downshifting for engine braking or acceleration, etc. I honestly didn't envision giving up manual transmissions until I was much older and had grown tired of the tedium of repeated shifts in gridlocked traffic, dealing with the hills of San Francisco and elsewhere, and other annoyances that balance out the fun of a manual.

With all of that said, the several different occasions I have driven a Tesla have been enough for me to set the desire for a manual transmission aside. The feel of instant torque almost anywhere on the powerband is quite enthralling, and though substantially different from churning through the gears, offers its own thrill. And my experience has been with the Model X! I imagine the P3D is a driving dream come true for someone like me. Perhaps somewhere down the line I would grow to miss the manual transmission, and I might keep my current car to scratch that itch from time to time, but as of right now, can't wait to ditch the shifter.

How is this remotely related to market action? Um, if the Tesla experience can convince an enthusiastic manual transmission-loving guy like myself to jump in with both feet and not even look back, they've got a lot of potential for growth among that segment.... :p

/OT

I'm really itching to drive one, still haven't heard from Tesla after the initial order. But hopefully soon. Other than manual transmission, the other thing I'm interested in "driving is believing" is going back to rear wheel drive. I've done that, and it can be fun (a lot of fun on country roads in my youth), but since my first fwd I've not really missed it. And, again, it comes down to how you drive the car. Driving FWD is different than RWD. Well, it is when you are pushing the limits anyway :p

Tesla market action? Umm... yeah, I'm going with the "EV pulls in car driving enthusiasts" because everyone knows that is such a large addressable market :D

Perhaps somewhat more market aligned, since Europe is ~80% manual transmission and is eating up EVs I would expect that lack of a transmission is not a hindrance to the market (obviously there are other, confounding, factors). Oops, I think I just proved this is completely OT.

Well, I appreciate the perspective. Thanks!
 
Thanks for the reminder. This is so obvious, even we can forget it sometimes.

New jobs are created, where the innovation is. That is an old law. And the transition to EVs only, needs huge amount of new jobs. Maybe, for a short period, even more then today. So money will come through.
The biggest ingredient to the renewables economic boom is simply the inability to hoard resources. Economies rise and fall based on the movement of money. Wealth concentrates due to scarcity. Economy overheats, fossil fuel costs go up and the landlord class buy up companies and property on the cheap. How you going to sequester wind and solar radiation?

This will be the greatest boom in human history and is part of the reason our current "bubble" hasn't popped. Also might be the reason it grows and grows until it does pop and ends human civilization. Hopefully not.
 
At what point would you put your 'buy hat' back on?

My buy target is in the lower $340s. Raised from the mid $330s due to the apparent change of plans re: new China tariffs and the market's response to it. Was debating whether to raise it a dollar or two due to the European launch, but I don't think so. I don't see anything that the broader market will consider to be a material change from previous plans. We may get a little short-term optimism-related movement, but apart from that, no.

Nearly two months remaining before the Q4 report. The combination of "the probability of bad news occurring at some point during that timeperiod and the market freaking out", and basic theta decay on the calls I want to buy, says to be patient.
 
OT

So that is where all of the manual transmission cars go. It has gotten harder and harder over the years to buy a manual transmission here in the states. Naturally, it doesn't help that I only buy used which limits my options, but it didn't used to be this bad.

In fact, one of the things I'm curious about is how much I will actually like driving an EV. I used to have a car with a manual choke and have missed that ever since. Not having to shift will be nice, but a lot of my driving uses shifting. It will be a whole new world. :p

[Edited to add: I've always liked the idea of a CVT and a friend let me drive his. He loves it and believes in the "shift point" model where you can still shift if you want to. I found it awkward (paddle shifters were hard to hit while turning the wheel) and disappointing (it can't jump between ratios so you don't get the same effect as with a manual). I'm no longer interested in CVT and automatics are just... bleh.]

Also OT:

I preferred manual, myself, before going all-in on EV’s. Have to say, I haven’t missed it. The reason I liked manuals was having less between me and the actual controls of the car. With an EV, with no gears, there’s even less than that. It’s not some heuristic trying to take over part of the driving for me(poorly), it’s just eliminating the need for that crutch entirely. The transmission is only there to make up for a natural deficiency in the engine that simply doesn’t exist in EV’s.
 
OT

Still OT... but its not trading hours, right (well, in the US anyway)



I'm really itching to drive one, still haven't heard from Tesla after the initial order. But hopefully soon. Other than manual transmission, the other thing I'm interested in "driving is believing" is going back to rear wheel drive. I've done that, and it can be fun (a lot of fun on country roads in my youth), but since my first fwd I've not really missed it. And, again, it comes down to how you drive the car. Driving FWD is different than RWD. Well, it is when you are pushing the limits anyway :p

Tesla market action? Umm... yeah, I'm going with the "EV pulls in car driving enthusiasts" because everyone knows that is such a large addressable market :D

Perhaps somewhat more market aligned, since Europe is ~80% manual transmission and is eating up EVs I would expect that lack of a transmission is not a hindrance to the market (obviously there are other, confounding, factors). Oops, I think I just proved this is completely OT.

Well, I appreciate the perspective. Thanks!

My big knock on FWD is torque steer, and boy would that be pronounced in a Tesla. My previous vehicle was FWD, my first vehicle RWD, and current is AWD. Of the three, AWD is my preference. I do enjoy the cornering behavior of FWD though.

Best of luck on the experience -- sounds like you've got your order in? Congratulations if so!

/OT
 
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Reactions: humbaba
Perhaps somewhat more market aligned, since Europe is ~80% manual transmission and is eating up EVs I would expect that lack of a transmission is not a hindrance to the market (obviously there are other, confounding, factors).

The last few years lot’s of people are opting for automatic transmissions. Maybe because the price and fuel consumption is gone,maybe because it’s no fun dealing with 6 (or more) way transmissions anymore.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: humbaba
My buy target is in the lower $340s. Raised from the mid $330s due to the apparent change of plans re: new China tariffs and the market's response to it. Was debating whether to raise it a dollar or two due to the European launch, but I don't think so. I don't see anything that the broader market will consider to be a material change from previous plans. We may get a little short-term optimism-related movement, but apart from that, no.

Nearly two months remaining before the Q4 report. The combination of "the probability of bad news occurring at some point during that timeperiod and the market freaking out", and basic theta decay on the calls I want to buy, says to be patient.

Thanks so much for this. I bought most of my stocks in Sep/early Oct (would have never had the confidence to do so without everything I learned here, so thank you all). I still have some cash, but am reluctant to add at the current peak. Will sit on my hands, as difficult as it is.
 
So that is where all of the manual transmission cars go. It has gotten harder and harder over the years to buy a manual transmission here in the states. Naturally, it doesn't help that I only buy used which limits my options, but it didn't used to be this bad.

In Germany about 80% of new car sales are still have manual transmission, for several reasons:
  • To get a driving license in most jurisdictions you have to demonstrate driving manual in traffic in various scenarios - i.e. most new drivers get familiar with manual transmission as the first type of transmission they drive.
  • Automatic transmissions, especially the simpler ones, create a 5-10% worse fuel economy, which in Europe with its much higher fuel prices is a big deal.
  • Modern automatic transmissions in the Model 3's price class are expensive: 5-6% of the purchase price.
Here's a quick comparison I just gathered based on today's prices and an EUR/USD of 1.13:
  • BMW 3-series, 320d 2018 transmission pricing:
  • Manual: 40,450 = $45,700
  • Automatic: 42,600 = $48,140 (+$2,430, +5.3%)
  • Mercedes E-Class, E 200 2018:
  • Manual: 49,081 = $55,461
  • Automatic: 51,818 = $58,554 (+$3,092, +5.5%)
  • Audi A5 Sportback 2019 (40 TFSI 6-gear and S-tronic):
  • Manual: 38,600 = $43,618
  • Automatic: 40,900 = $46,217 (+$2,600, +5.9%)
Note that the highest quality CVT automatic transmissions are often bundled with more expensive engines - to push customers towards higher margin models. In lower price classes it's not infrequent to automatic transmission to be a disproportionately higher percentage of the purchase price, higher than 10% is not unusual.

With a Model 3 the highest grade possible CVT automatic "transmission" is an entry model feature.

Another big factor in Europe is that air conditioning is an entry model feature as well, but in the EU it's often bundled separately with a significant price close to another 5%.

With a Model 3 the battery management system requires a heat-pump anyway, so cabin cooling and de-humidification is an entry level feature that customers get essentially 'for free'.

While these features are usually bundled at the $100k luxury/premium model level, these are two big sales arguments in favor of the Model 3 in Europe, especially at the lower price levels it can target now.

TL;DR: Model 3 demand in Europe could be even higher than optimists expect, especially as we start heading into the summer. The European Model 3 pricing Tesla announced today is very competitive even with locally produced ICE cars (BMW, Audi, Mercedes), especially after fuel savings are factored in.
 
The last few years lot’s of people are opting for automatic transmissions. Maybe because the price and fuel consumption is gone,maybe because it’s no fun dealing with 6 (or more) way transmissions anymore.

Or maybe the 100kms of traffic jams they sit in every day which are tedious as hell with a clutch
 
Apologies for double posting.

Last week my tire exploded on the highway. Tesla has it towed to Costco tire center (for free). Was quick and easy.

Costco failed to tell me that my rim was very bent, so I’ve been driving with a horribly bent rim. Brought it into Tesla this morning without an appointment, they threw it on a lift to show me the damage. They gave me loaner wheels to use for as long as it takes me to find nice replacement 21s. All for free!

They also had 4 trailers unloading new Tesla’s and one loading up used trade ins. Absolute insanity. This is in Paramus NJ.

Q4 will be another surprise.

Hopefully, they'll get the vehicles delivered properly. My son's 3 is supposed to be delivered in Raleigh this weekend.

However, Vegas support just texted him and told him it's ready for pickup on Saturday at Mt Kisco, NY (543 miles from Raleigh). Evidently, they shipped his VIN from Richmond to NY instead of to Raleigh. He's had to call 8 times during this elongated delivery process.

Tesla, please get your delivery act together!!!!!
 
OT

OT AF.



While shopping for my current vehicle several years ago, I was adamant that whatever I purchased would have a manual transmission. I'm not as hardcore as some, but I'm definitely a "car guy", have in the past decried the decline of manual transmissions, and enjoy the process of and greater precision allowed by manual shifting -- downshifting for engine braking or acceleration, etc. I honestly didn't envision giving up manual transmissions until I was much older and had grown tired of the tedium of repeated shifts in gridlocked traffic, dealing with the hills of San Francisco and elsewhere, and other annoyances that balance out the fun of a manual.

With all of that said, the several different occasions I have driven a Tesla have been enough for me to set the desire for a manual transmission aside. The feel of instant torque almost anywhere on the powerband is quite enthralling, and though substantially different from churning through the gears, offers its own thrill. And my experience has been with the Model X! I imagine the P3D is a driving dream come true for someone like me. Perhaps somewhere down the line I would grow to miss the manual transmission, and I might keep my current car to scratch that itch from time to time, but as of right now, can't wait to ditch the shifter.

How is this remotely related to market action? Um, if the Tesla experience can convince an enthusiastic manual transmission-loving guy like myself to jump in with both feet and not even look back, they've got a lot of potential for growth among that segment.... :p

/OT
Agree very much that M3P would be able to capture much of the car guys market.
I consider myself a car guy too, I daily drive a GT86 to commute, and I sometimes get up 1 hour early just to detour to the longer mountain roads on my way.
After driving my wife’s M3 AWD (not even performance version) for a few weekends I am fully converted now. Driving my manual used to be fun but now seems to be unnecessary work. Also nothing can beat that instant electrical torque when overtaking something.
My impression of a lot of other car guys is they’re not really interested in how the car performs on track, they just want a car powerful and handles well enough that they can place it anywhere they want in traffic whenever they want. For this purpose M3 AWD can beat almost all competition, since its silent acceleration allows you to use full power much more often without embarrassing yourself. I can imagine M3P doing even better job.
A test drive might not be able to convert a car guy, but a 200miles day trip certainly will.

Btw, many auto journalists don’t want to admit but they are against EV not because they pro driving fun, but because they see it as the ending of their career.
How many tech reviewers you need to review just 3 new iPhones per year anyway?
 
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