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Nice research. No shame in making a guess.
I was hoping to take the time today to research the last few quarters’ worth of delivery reports and see the ensuing impact on the stock price. I think in order for this to be the most useful, we would need not only the actual deliveries, but also the expected deliveries.
I’m not sure I’ll have the time - maybe @Fact Checking has that data handy and will beat me to the punch. ;-)
At any rate, I think it could be a very worthwhile exercise heading into this week if folks want to try and position themselves based on past events, as I’m looking to do.
Will look to share my findings with you all if someone else doesn’t first.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I think @Papafox is the expert on that: I believe his observations so far were that historically even clear "beats Wall Street expectations" delivery numbers were often resulting in counter-intuitive stock price movements, i.e. a drop in $TSLA ...
Delivery numbers and the phraseology is Tesla specific and are thus easy to lie about, as we've seen it in Q3 when one of the big news aggregators manipulated the actual delivery numbers and lied about them being a 'miss' (while in reality Q3 deliveries and production was a beat). Everyone who agreed with @luvb2b's model and analysis knew the moment the Q3 numbers dropped that the Q3 earnings report is going to be a blockbuster in terms of cash flow and that sustainable profits are in the cards.
Yet the stock price dropped from a high of $316 on Oct 2 (the release date of the 2018'Q3 delivery report) to a low below $250 within 4 trading days (!!!), in a well executed bear raid that dropped the SP by -25%. Only the October 24 earnings report (and its earlier announcement) initiated a well deserved rally on October 22.
Arguably the next delivery report is special in that Tesla is not a 'story stock' anymore, but a well-known stock with impressive Q3 financial metrics that can hold up to $AMZN and $AAPL. So in theory the SP might react well to a good Q4 delivery report. Beware of the most dangerous words in finance: "This time it's different!".
In practice it might drop if the delivery report is weaker than expected, or if there's a new FUD campaign against Tesla.
TLDR: On January ~3 when the Q4 delivery report is released by Tesla I'd expect just another regular day of $TSLA Market Action.
Don't really want to argue about this, since I don't have factual information. Just saw couple more tweets from others under Elon's tweets where people who just bought a car suggested others to check their stores, b/c they saw extra available inventory where they bought.
Also, there were few discussions here related to backlog being close to gone (Troy one of sources) and people questioning why Tesla doesn't open up leases etc. to sell more.
I think the reason could be that they caught up with high trim demand in NA and had just a bit of extra production capacity to add some inventory to their stores before $7.5k tax credit is reduced. I think it'd be a good move to maximize EOY sales on account of those people who make a purchase decision at the very last moment.
Don't know. In Q3 they had off the lot sales in Freemont, maybe in Q4 they planned for something similar in more states.
I don't see this as super important point or a proof of FUD intent.
Model 3 VINs @Model3VINs
#Tesla registered 3,569 new #Model3 VINs. ~52% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 193556.
#Tesla registered 3,569 new #Model3 VINs. ~52% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 193556.
This theory is basically the converse of the overoptimism that we saw (and I warned against) early in the quarter when Tesla was registering new VINs left and right.
That said, I'm not sure that the VIN registration patterns are specifically a quarterly thing, but rather a "when situations change" thing; it's just that situations (such as the mix or production rate) tend to change in sync with the quarterly cycle. For example, last quarter they switched from a dual-motor-heavy mix to a single-motor-heavy mix, which made them have to register a big buffer of single-motor VINs.
OT but related to service defect. Tomorrow I'm going to try to get service at the Rocklin/Sacramento center. Here's a draft of my complaint.
We want our summon and enhanced autopilot back. What I feared with the 30 day promotion of the product, despite the fact we paid full price for enhanced autopilot and full self-driving with purchase of car, has occurred. There was no way I could block the promotion prompt and it delayed starting the car until I fiddled with it for minutes. Complained to Tesla about this, was informed there should be an x button to stop it, which I did not see. Unfortunately, when I received your response, I had already discovered it would disappear if I opted for the trial offered.
Once later in the month we tried it on the freeway and it worked well. Also, we had use of summon feature for a few days. Then a notice appeared the trial was over and we lost the desired functionality bolded above.
I mentioned in my last post I opted to inform management of this complaint because I suspected it is a software glitch needing fixing. Apparently I was right and it has not been forwarded up your food chain.
Please fix over the air. If I have to go in for service, I may just roll around on the floor of the showroom, crying like a baby even though I’m an eighty-two year old Santa Claus lookalike. My wife, a gerontology major at CSUS, is capable of filming that event in her search for examples of elder abuse. Lucky for you as a Buddhist she doesn't like tantrum displays, including unzipped zippers in my case.
In the Bible it says the Lord giveth as well as taketh away. In this case, Tesla appears to have done both in one fell swoop of electrons.
We want our summon and enhanced autopilot back. What I feared with the 30 day promotion of the product, despite the fact we paid full price for enhanced autopilot and full self-driving with purchase of car, has occurred. There was no way I could block the promotion prompt and it delayed starting the car until I fiddled with it for minutes. Complained to Tesla about this, was informed there should be an x button to stop it, which I did not see. Unfortunately, when I received your response, I had already discovered it would disappear if I opted for the trial offered.
Once later in the month we tried it on the freeway and it worked well. Also, we had use of summon feature for a few days. Then a notice appeared the trial was over and we lost the desired functionality bolded above.
I mentioned in my last post I opted to inform management of this complaint because I suspected it is a software glitch needing fixing. Apparently I was right and it has not been forwarded up your food chain.
Please fix over the air. If I have to go in for service, I may just roll around on the floor of the showroom, crying like a baby even though I’m an eighty-two year old Santa Claus lookalike. My wife, a gerontology major at CSUS, is capable of filming that event in her search for examples of elder abuse. Lucky for you as a Buddhist she doesn't like tantrum displays, including unzipped zippers in my case.
In the Bible it says the Lord giveth as well as taketh away. In this case, Tesla appears to have done both in one fell swoop of electrons.
Anstandswauwau
Member
Nope.
Edit: Obviously every car worldwide get a VIN assigned; I assumed you were talking about NHTSA-trackable VINs. And apparently European cars are in the NHTSA database for whatever reason.
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Maybe, but I noticed the following VIN allocation patterns in the Q2, Q3 and Q4 data:
- The majority of the VINs are allocated early in the quarter.
- Late in the quarter (in the final 2-3 weeks leading to the end of production) there's only small, seemingly "iterative" VIN allocations
- In the final couple of days of the quarter there might be more allocations - possibly for the next quarter already.
Additional observations:
- I find no good alternative explanation for why VIN allocations would slow down in the second half of the quarter. If they are over-allocating VINs significantly then there would be no reason to time them cyclically at all - they'd just allocate then semi-randomly.
- The 85.75 +- 0.25% match between Q2 and Q3 might be coincidence - but to me it suggests a conscious, targeted VIN allocation effort.
- Elon talked about VIN trackers in one of the conference calls - so it's not entirely inconceivable that Tesla is also trying to accommodate VIN based production tracking, without exposing daily data.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Most of those improvements are to make the car worse while saving some costs, what they seems to be not understanding or thought impossible is some of those things could be automated and not adding as much cost as them thought.
I think @Papafox is the expert on that: I believe his observations so far were that historically even clear "beats Wall Street expectations" delivery numbers were often resulting in counter-intuitive stock price movements, i.e. a drop in $TSLA ...
Delivery numbers and the phraseology is Tesla specific and are thus easy to lie about, as we've seen it in Q3 when one of the big news aggregators manipulated the actual delivery numbers and lied about them being a 'miss' (while in reality Q3 deliveries and production was a beat). Everyone who agreed with @luvb2b's model and analysis knew the moment the Q3 numbers dropped that the Q3 earnings report is going to be a blockbuster in terms of cash flow and that sustainable profits are in the cards.
Yet the stock price dropped from a high of $316 on Oct 2 (the release date of the 2018'Q3 delivery report) to a low below $250 within 4 trading days (!!!), in a well executed bear raid that dropped the SP by -25%. Only the October 24 earnings report (and its earlier announcement) initiated a well deserved rally on October 22.
Arguably the next delivery report is special in that Tesla is not a 'story stock' anymore, but a well-known stock with impressive Q3 financial metrics that can hold up to $AMZN and $AAPL. So in theory the SP might react well to a good Q4 delivery report. Beware of the most dangerous words in finance: "This time it's different!".
In practice it might drop if the delivery report is weaker than expected, or if there's a new FUD campaign against Tesla.
TLDR: On January ~3 when the Q4 delivery report is released by Tesla I'd expect just another regular day of $TSLA Market Action.
I have seen several alternative methods for determining Q4 production and delivery. @Fact Checking 's educated guess on the previous page looks reasonable. The caveat I would give to that methodology as a ballpark figure is that in Q3 the buyers were lined up a bit deeper, whereas in Q4 there's hussle to match some cars with buyers in the final days of the year, which could yield a number below the 86%. OTOH, the Fremont delivery center is working more efficiently than last end-of-quarter and trucking issues are greatly reduced. It'll be fun to see how it shakes out. I'm not at liberties to mention all the techniques I've seen, but almost all produce production and delivery numbers over 60K for M3, so I think we have a reasonable chance of being at least that high.
As far as reactions to P&D reports, you're all welcome to do some random checking by finding the dates of such reports then checking out the daily Tesla charts, which go back to March, 2016. As a general rule, the P&D report has not been nearly as important as the ER for moving the stock price.
One really unusual quarter was 3Q 2016, when both the P&D report of Oct 2 (first day of trading was Oct 3) and the ER (first full day of trading Oct 27) were excellent but the shorts managed to eat away at the gains of these two days extremely quickly. Oct 3 is the ultimate example of extreme capping by shorts, and Oct 27 was an example of a strong pushdown during the day despite a big rise in the morning, due to good news. The takeaway was that 3Q 16 was considered a bit of a one-hit wonder (the profitability was not reported the next quarter) and more importantly, longs were feeling dread about the upcoming Solarcity vote in November. People like Chanos had a dog in this fight, hoping to sink the TSLA SP prior to the vote so that investors would vote down the acquisition and Chanos and his buddies could make lots of money from their SCTY short positions. I think just about the only reasonable chance of seeing this type of dread again in longs (and thereby giving shorts the power to manipulate this effectively) would be if the broader markets were absolutely tanking. I don't expect that.
Anyway, feel free to browse the various P&D and ER reports, check out the accompanying charts, and form your own opinions.
Please be Elon.... Please be Elon.... Please be Elon...
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Be careful - our US brethren actually have guns, and this stuff is emotional..
Verified account 2h2 hours ago
1/ In 2018 we added over 3,100 Superchargers globally. Our network now covers 99% of the US population and 97% of Europe and will continue to grow in 2019
Verified account 2h2 hours ago
2/ While home or workplace charging covers about 90% of daily driving, the Supercharger network enables charging while away from home or on road trips
Verified account 2h2 hours ago
3/ Trip Planner automatically guides you to convenient Superchargers along your route. Just enter a destination and your Tesla tells you when, where, and how long to charge before continuing your journey
TeslaVerified account @Tesla
4/ With the Supercharger network, you can go from Miami to Vancouver, Mexico City to Detroit, Lisbon to Sørkjosen. Explore a route at https://ts.la/2Qazu5e
Tesla on Twitter
Indeed. Here in Denver, our local club handled orientations for literally hundreds of deliveries at the end of Q3. Our help was declined by Tesla for this Q. I think they have it handled much better this time around.
That, or our owner group is less fun than we thought we were.
I'd like to add why I think the 4Q Production and Delivery report will move the stock price, one way or the other, depending upon whether it is negative or positive. In the 3Q P&D report, the issue of gross margin was huge, and so many investors did not necessarily translate the good P&D numbers into good financial numbers. They took a wait and see attitude. In 4Q, though, the gross margin numbers are far less guesswork at this general level of production, and so more analysts will be plugging the 4Q P&D numbers into their spreadsheets and coming up with nicely profitable conclusions if the numbers are good.
What makes 4Q so important is that the shorts have been claiming that 3Q will be the best quarter that Tesla ever sees and that it's downhill from there. If 4Q can beat 3Q, then the short thesis has once again been torn to shreds. OTOH, the shorts will maximize the negatives if Q4 is lower than Q3. Much depends upon this P&D report.
What makes 4Q so important is that the shorts have been claiming that 3Q will be the best quarter that Tesla ever sees and that it's downhill from there. If 4Q can beat 3Q, then the short thesis has once again been torn to shreds. OTOH, the shorts will maximize the negatives if Q4 is lower than Q3. Much depends upon this P&D report.
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