Krugerrand
Meow
Not only should you swing by, you should record all VINS, set up surveillance, interrogate EVERYONE in a 10 block radius, report back here every hour on the hour, and essentially live there until we tell you otherwise.
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Not only should you swing by, you should record all VINS, set up surveillance, interrogate EVERYONE in a 10 block radius, report back here every hour on the hour, and essentially live there until we tell you otherwise.
Krugerrand
Meow
You got the funny for using the term ‘pie-hole’.
And what do we have to do around here to get more button options. For realz!!!
Jimminy Christmas dude!
Ok, what’s your Venmo?
Swung by, appx 1/3 reduction in numbers there at noon Sunday.
So folks picking them up
Btw, Cadillac SUV was one trade in and a few Lexus
Where can I get a WiFi camera?
Love to all
Krugerrand
Meow
I was down with privatization. I’d still be down with it. I’m also okay with not private. I’m like a surfer, I just try to go with the flow because to do otherwise usually gets me smacked in the face. Not that I won’t on occasion swim upstream, but I pick and choose carefully that which causes me strife.
To me the interesting thing about the assembly video is that Tesla has two major cost advantages of building the Model 3 vs everything in the class
1. Simplified manufacturing
2. Decreasing battery costs
The first is a direct result of the ground up design around a single computing infrastructure. Competitors who don’t design and build this way (literally no one else yet) will require more components and testing.
And of course the second is driven by the gigafactory. Which, kind of quietly, seems to have greatly increased production without expansion to the full footprint. If they are producing at 7000 per week then GF production should be somewhere about 30 GWh on annual basis. This means that the new Panasonic lines are up and running along with new pack production manufacturing process. We should be seeing a increasing gross margin as a result.
And here comes the Model Y, which is probably going to be even easier to build.
Tesla’s lead is increasing substantially.
I suspect we will start to see it in this quarter’s financials, but really see it in the Q1 financials.
1. Simplified manufacturing
2. Decreasing battery costs
The first is a direct result of the ground up design around a single computing infrastructure. Competitors who don’t design and build this way (literally no one else yet) will require more components and testing.
And of course the second is driven by the gigafactory. Which, kind of quietly, seems to have greatly increased production without expansion to the full footprint. If they are producing at 7000 per week then GF production should be somewhere about 30 GWh on annual basis. This means that the new Panasonic lines are up and running along with new pack production manufacturing process. We should be seeing a increasing gross margin as a result.
And here comes the Model Y, which is probably going to be even easier to build.
Tesla’s lead is increasing substantially.
I suspect we will start to see it in this quarter’s financials, but really see it in the Q1 financials.
Well said. Alien dreadnought will happen in a large portion of the manufacturing process if not all of it, but that will take time. I hate when people are quick to find faults when visions don't materialize 100% on the very first day.
They are either dumb or very deceptive. Most of the MSM articles and blogs that poke fun of Elon on this fall in the latter category.
Yar.
It is a hard problem, but you only have to solve automation once. Now Tesla has a line with spare robots to test with (during planned down periods).
5h5 hours ago
Alp Soycengiz Retweeted Reijer Kok
Worth retweeting.658 #teslas registered on the 27th of Dec in Holland. That is in 1 day. $tslaq shorts european delivery spreadsheets r way off the mark
Alp Soycengiz added,
Pedro Coelho Silva @PedroCoSilva
Replying to @Alpsoy66
@ValueAnalyst1 Tesla seems on its way for 30k+ s&x
Pedro Coelho Silva on Twitter
Sorry I have to rain down on your parade. These 658 cars registered on the 27th are probably stock and will not be counted as sold in Q4. On 1 January the fiscal rules for EVs over €50,000 will change in The Netherlands. Cars registered before that date will fall under the current, more attractive tax rules. Even if they have not been sold yet. These 658 registered cars will give Tesla the opportunity to still offer fiscally attractive Model S and X from stock in Q1. Jaguar is doing the same with I-Paces.
Still, Q4 will be the best quarter for Model S and X in The Netherlands. By far.
Do we have any posters volunteering at Tesla this weekend? Is Tesla using volunteers for a quarter-end push as they did last quarter? I haven’t heard as much about it recently, leading me to think we have resolved, or made significant progress toward resolving, delivery hell.
tsunamiofhurt
Member
It's important that Tesla try to automate everything, to see where they fail, to see what they need to change to help improve automation in the future. If you don't try, you never improve.
Tesla for example learned that even with modern computer vision systems, "dangly" / "flexible" things just don't work well with automation in a mass production environment. So what is Tesla doing? Giving up? Hardly; as we can see from their patents they're developing for example "rigid" wiring harness elements that are designed to be bent by the robots installing them, into the shape that they're desired in the vehicle.
This is the way Musk has approached all of his companies, and the reason he's been so successful. Constantly try to innovate, with everything, as much as you possibly can without going bankrupt from the inevitable failures that you know are going to come. Treat some failures as an inevitable part of life in order to teach you how you need to work around the problems the next time around, and evolve your production process and products from generation to generation as fast as physically possible.
Wondering the same. Last weekend in Tempe Az, there were more people in the lobby picking up new cars than during the final days of Q3 - it was super busy! But no one was really waiting more than 5 min so I think they've staffed up this time for the rush. I tried to offer help to people, but the conversations kept ending within minutes as their names were called - I really couldn't help much. People also seemed to know more about the vehicles this time, one coming for seconds for the kids.
Don't take this to mean that some places won't need help, and today might even be different in Tempe. So swing by and see for yourself or ask
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon on JRE now over 18 Million views:
Joe Rogan Experience #1169 - Elon Musk
Streamed live on Sep 6, 2018
18,004,431 views
as of 2:00 pm EST, Dec 30, 2018
403K likes
8.9K dislikes
That's a 45:1 Like/Dis ratio
When anyone asks, always remember this famous JRE catch-phrase:
Joe Rogan Experience #1169 - Elon Musk
Streamed live on Sep 6, 2018
18,004,431 views
as of 2:00 pm EST, Dec 30, 2018
403K likes
8.9K dislikes
That's a 45:1 Like/Dis ratio
When anyone asks, always remember this famous JRE catch-phrase:
"Elon Musk is a business magnet..."
Cheers!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Q4 Model 3 production and deliveries estimate
So @Troy asked for people to make their Q4 Model 3 production estimates, and here's my entry for the 2018 Q4 Model 3 production estimateslottery pool:
So my official estimate for Q4 Model 3 production is 62,800 - with deliveries about 4,000 higher than that: 66,800.
Methodology:
My method is exceedingly simple, it relies on a visible cyclical feature of Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations with the NHTSA, which can be seen on the Model 3 VIN tracker website:
This "feature" is an apparent 'quiet period' or 'pause' in new VIN registrations at around the end of quarters - preceded by small adjustments to the maximum VINs. This defines a maximum allocated VIN for that quarter, which can be extracted historically for all 4 quarters of 2018:
Note how the 'VIN allocation ratio' has stabilized to around 85-86% in Q2 and Q3, and that we already know the Q4 maximum VIN today - what we don't know is Q4 production.
If we make the (big) assumption that in Q4 Tesla has set their production targets in a similar fashion as they did in Q3, and allocated VINs accordingly, then the production target can be calculated by applying the Q3 ratio of 85.22% to the Q4 increase in VINs allocated (+62,804) - which gives a 62,804 production target for Q4.
Also note that these VIN numbers are not sampled and don't suffer from selection bias - they are the pure maximum VIN numbers registered with the NHTSA at the (near) end of the quarter. Hence the 'only' flaw of my estimate might be that VIN allocations might not be uniform across quarters - like they weren't in Q1.
Caveats:
Anyway, Tesla keeping this ratio more or less constant would be a funny and predictable way to communicate their production target without actually communicating it officially.
(Not advice. In 5 days I might be looking back at this post in embarrassment, wishing for a 'delete' button.)
So @Troy asked for people to make their Q4 Model 3 production estimates, and here's my entry for the 2018 Q4 Model 3 production estimates
So my official estimate for Q4 Model 3 production is 62,800 - with deliveries about 4,000 higher than that: 66,800.
Methodology:
My method is exceedingly simple, it relies on a visible cyclical feature of Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations with the NHTSA, which can be seen on the Model 3 VIN tracker website:
This "feature" is an apparent 'quiet period' or 'pause' in new VIN registrations at around the end of quarters - preceded by small adjustments to the maximum VINs. This defines a maximum allocated VIN for that quarter, which can be extracted historically for all 4 quarters of 2018:
Code:
Model 3 VIN allocation ratios:
Quarter Maximum VIN VIN increase Production VIN-to-Production-Ratio
==================================================================================
2018/Q1 20,581 +15,787 9,766 61.86%
2018/Q2 53,800 +33,219 28,578 86.02%
2018/Q3 116,270 +62,470 53,239 85.22%
==================================================================================
2018/Q4 ~189,964 +73,694 62,804 (est.) 85.22% (est.)Note how the 'VIN allocation ratio' has stabilized to around 85-86% in Q2 and Q3, and that we already know the Q4 maximum VIN today - what we don't know is Q4 production.
If we make the (big) assumption that in Q4 Tesla has set their production targets in a similar fashion as they did in Q3, and allocated VINs accordingly, then the production target can be calculated by applying the Q3 ratio of 85.22% to the Q4 increase in VINs allocated (+62,804) - which gives a 62,804 production target for Q4.
Also note that these VIN numbers are not sampled and don't suffer from selection bias - they are the pure maximum VIN numbers registered with the NHTSA at the (near) end of the quarter. Hence the 'only' flaw of my estimate might be that VIN allocations might not be uniform across quarters - like they weren't in Q1.
Caveats:
- Both the Bloomberg tracker and @Troy's tracker is projecting much lower Q4 production rates: the @Troy tracker's estimate is now down to 51.6k Model 3's made in Q4.
- Tesla is free to change their VIN allocation patterns at any time. They could make much fewer (or more) Model 3's than my projection.
Anyway, Tesla keeping this ratio more or less constant would be a funny and predictable way to communicate their production target without actually communicating it officially.
(Not advice. In 5 days I might be looking back at this post in embarrassment, wishing for a 'delete' button.)
Last edited:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think we've had other reports that Tesla increased personnel and were telling people they didn't need volunteers this time.
Business Insider Tesla Year in Review
Tesla had a wild 2018 — here's every bizarre thing that happened
I am schocked, schocked that 90% of the key events were negative.
Tesla had a wild 2018 — here's every bizarre thing that happened
I am schocked, schocked that 90% of the key events were negative.
anthonyj
Stonks
Tesla has the #5 richest person on Earth and y’all worried about some production numbers. I think that’s proof enough
Model 3s with paper plates are all over town lately
I think that’s proof enoughModel 3s with paper plates are all over town lately
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I’m at 100k total combined (S3X) deliveries for q4. Not exactly 1 million but thematically on point. My methodology: This photo attached and perhaps an internal goal to get a
drop the mike moment.
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