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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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This is a very compelling and plausible argument, i like it. The only problem i have with it is one of timing. If the average lifetime cycle of a car model is 6-8 years, Tesla would have to sustain something close to 500k Model 3s for at least 5 or 6 years to recoup overall costs (and get there as soon as possible). That would be around 2025 or so? Just in case they do what they announced this time, VW Group will be building 2-3 million EVs by then (about 500k or so by 2021).
OK, the counterarguments to that are:

(1) You yourself already recognize the degree to which the incumbent automakers have not been doing what they said they would ("just in case they do what they announced this time", as you said).
(2) The market for $35K+ cars is larger than 3.5 million cars. In the US alone it's about 9 million cars. So there's room for VW and Tesla and two more companies producing as much as VW is promising -- in the US alone.
(3) Getting back to counterargument 1, even if VW is serious, do you really think there are *three* serious companies planning to put out 3 million EVs a year in this market segment in 2025? And that's only looking at the US market.

I personally have said that Tesla's greatest competitive advantage is nothing to do with Tesla -- it's all to do with the bad attitude of its would-be competition.

Good discussion...
 
"If the average lifetime cycle of a car model is 6-8 years, Tesla would have to sustain something close to 500k Model 3s for at least 5 or 6 years to recoup overall costs (and get there as soon as possible)."

Where did this come from? I can't say that it makes much financial sense for any product to only be profitable in the final two years of its lifecycle.

If that is how VW is running their businesses they should just stop making cars now.
 
Although I understand everyone’s frustration, as I also am, at this time, I would not expect rational decision making with respect to blocking. Trust me, I’ve been there: it’s simply impossible to think straight when hundreds of people are simultaneously attacking you.

The facts are: Tesla attracts a lot of retail investors, Tesla articles attract at least 10x views, people on both sides of the aisle talk about those articles for months, but most importantly, at the end of the day, the success or failure of the company will be in the hands of Tesla and its own employees. As more Model 3’s get in the hands of customers and Tesla actually shows bottom-line profits later this year, I have no doubt that the effectiveness of negativity will diminish.
 
In one of Kolodny's several Twitter threads regarding this subject today, I posted a link to Tesla's rebuttal blog without adding comments of my own.

Link to Tesla's rebuttal blog: A Not So Revealing Story

In response, Kolodny has blocked me from reading or replying to her tweets.
Flattery will get her nowhere.
 

Below is my tweeted reply to Kolodny, which was merely a link to the Tesla rebuttal blog with no added comment from me. Nevertheless, Kolodny immediately blocked me from reading or replying to her tweets.

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Right. You would have to be somewhat insane at this point to take Elon at face value, particularly in the short term. I've done that a few times too many but I've regained my sanity. My brokerage account is thanking me.;)

What ever Elon says, add 6-9 months and stay away from options. Prices are getting ridiculous anyway. My account still looks really nice from 2012, and I expect it to look even prettier soon.
 
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