TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jhm]

One of the SA authors analyzed this today and found that the bad publicity had minimal, if any, effect on AP/FSD take-up rates.

That would make sense to me. People tend to have high confidence in their own ability to drive. So if they like the convenience of Autopilot, it is easy to rationalize that they will simply remain good, vigilant drivers both with and without AP engaged. If you are confident in your own ability to stay alert and not crash into a parked car or something like that, then AP is not going to take that away from you.

FSD takes us into a fundamentally different relationship with our cars, however, but this is still a ways off. Driver lapses on AP are not really indicative of FSD when it finally arrives. So I think uptake on FSD is more about preserving the residual value of the vehicle, once FSD has truly surpassed AP. Some consumers are willing to pay $3k now to avoid future obsolescence. Also doubling the sensor suite now may feel safer to some buyers, though I have not heard that there is any substance to this.

 

[EinSV]

thestreet.com has put out a positive piece on the German engineering analysis. Headline is self-explanatory.

New Teardown Shows That Tesla's Model 3 Could Have Huge Profit Margins

 

[GBleck]

Steel (hot-rolled, coiled) is ~ $800/ton (2000lb). The 3800lb M3 has ~ 1000lb of battery pack. Take that out it's 2600lb. Even if majority of that is steel in a M3, lets call it 1 ton, a 25% tariff would only raise the cost by $200.

Aluminum is ~$2100/ton. I don't believe there is a lot of aluminum in the Model 3.

The cells are roughly 5% aluminum by mass if memory serves.

 

[bdy0627]

The shorts get to live another day.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Yes according to this infographic, Tesla's NCA is 80% nickle, 15% cobalt and 5% aluminum. Since M3 2170 has gone down to 2.6% cobalt, these numbers are no longer correct. My uneducated guess is that the cobalt content has been replaced with nickle since they're close together on the periodic table and likely have similar properties, vs aluminum which is used for cell stability. So assuming the same 5% aluminum, that's <50lb in a 1000lb pack (take out some weight for the casing), or <$50.

 

[kbM3]

Excuse me in advance if this is an ignorant question, but would the $28k figure from Germany be the variable costs alone?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

According to the analysis it says materials, delivery (presumably the delivery costs to the factory) and production costs. Unclear if it includes depreciation and doesn't seem to include interest/SG&A.

Also unclear how they estimated battery cost since it seems to have been done independently of Tesla.

 

[jhm]

Why so many people are so desperate for Tesla and Musk to fail

Hurt myself laughing. Giles is the best.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Probably using this for battery cost:

Tesla releases rare details about Model 3’s battery cells, claims highest energy density and less cobalt

 

[HG Wells]

Trump wants to ban German cars.
Trump reportedly wants to ban German cars in the US

Looks like he is mad at Angela Merkel.

 

[Curt Renz]

Trump wants to ban German cars.
Trump reportedly wants to ban German cars in the US

Looks like he is mad at Angela Merkel.

I supplied the subtitles.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Why so many people are so desperate for Tesla and Musk to fail

Hurt myself laughing. Giles is the best.

I guess there are some, but not me. I would be long SpaceX now if I could, and think that it's quite likely I may be long Tesla at some point in the future.

 

[sundaymorning]

thestreet.com has put out a positive piece on the German engineering analysis. Headline is self-explanatory.

New Teardown Shows That Tesla's Model 3 Could Have Huge Profit Margins

$18k for materials and $10k for labor says a German firm.

Elon agrees on Twitter.

 

[EinSV]

$18k for materials and $10k for labor says a German firm.

Elon agrees on Twitter.

Yep. So far none of the other big financial publications seem to be covering the story.

I would assume an analysis by independent German engineers hired by a competitor that concludes the Model 3 will be profitable (bigly) would be Big News given all the bankwuptcy/Tesla burning cash stories in the press lately .....

 

[theschnell]

I guess there are some, but not me. I would be long SpaceX now if I could, and think that it's quite likely I may be long Tesla at some point in the future.

Now we’re talking!

 

[generalenthu]

Now we’re talking!

Lol, don't fall for it. Sunbird is saying she would go long after Tesla emerges from bankwuptcy.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I was skeptical before but wow
View attachment 305268

This is huger...bigly even. I have been actively following Tesla since September 2012 and IMHO I have never felt this good about the future prospects of this company. Tesla will succeed without parallel, and it will drag TSLA along for the ride, kicking and screaming all the way! Thanks Elon.

 

[22522]

Excuse me in advance if this is an ignorant question, but would the $28k figure from Germany be the variable costs alone?

The $10K labor traditionally carries load. That is a number mapped from other manufacturers. The detail that it is tied to a production rate indicates that it is not variable costs alone, but fully distributed cost.

 

[dakh]

I'm looking at the stock price this way. I don't believe any significant change in the price...up or down, is going to happen until after the Q2 financial call. Just ride it out folks and we'll see where we stand in July. Ironically, that is about the time I should be configuring my car. Might mean the difference between AWD and RWD! LOL!

Dan

End of quarter delivery number could be a good enough indicator of M3 production progress.

 

[Uptownman]

Excuse me in advance if this is an ignorant question, but would the $28k figure from Germany be the variable costs alone?

COGS I believe, add $6,330 in operating costs at 500,000 M3 plus 100,000 S/X, That assume no increase from 2017 which off course can't be the case with interest expense ballooning.

So that gets you about break-even assuming those volumes can be met. In other words he just told everyone even at 10,000 units a week probably can't make any net profit on a $35,000 car.