i hope you’re right, but most times a seemingly perfectly choreographed move, in the end, does just the opposite. maybe our elusive ATH’s won’t be attained until 6-12 months from now, instead of 0-6 months. i’d prefer it now hahh, but we’ll see.
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i hope you’re right, but most times a seemingly perfectly choreographed move, in the end, does just the opposite. maybe our elusive ATH’s won’t be attained until 6-12 months from now, instead of 0-6 months. i’d prefer it now hahh, but we’ll see.
bdy0627
Active Member
Today's trading is almost identical to yesterday. A nice bounce around 11 then trickled down from there. It made a new low for the day around this time yesterday. Let's see how it finishes today.
Well I cannot imagine longs selling now. Maybe day-traders, but otherwise I assume this is all shorting? Assuming all goes to Elon's plan, will make for a bigger bang in a couple of weeks.
jhm
Well-Known Member
There isn't one. Shorts go to hell.
But looking Insane BFPT 12 months out at about 75% (rather bullish) sentiment, $666 looks like a good entry point for a short.
bdy0627
Active Member
New low for the day. Nasdaq is trickling up, so this drop isn't that.
The stock goes up
The stock goes down
Together we longs wait for words from Elon...
The stock goes down
Together we longs wait for words from Elon...
I enjoy how everyday the stock moves downward, everyone posts how this is the shorts attacking again.
I dont know why but i just enjoy it so much.
I dont know why but i just enjoy it so much.
Mike Smith
Active Member
I think I know what is going to cause the squeeze when they release the Q2 numbers.
Having reached 5k/wk they will focus on just maintaining or slightly improving this rate for Q3, so they will be able to give an actual deliveries estimate. It could be 60,000 Model 3s, along with 27,000 Model S/X.
Having reached 5k/wk they will focus on just maintaining or slightly improving this rate for Q3, so they will be able to give an actual deliveries estimate. It could be 60,000 Model 3s, along with 27,000 Model S/X.
bdy0627
Active Member
At this point, it's pretty reasonable to assume it will likely go down to around $320 where it should find very solid support.
bdy0627
Active Member
Why do you think that would surprise the market enough to cause a squeeze? I think the market would respond favorably to that, but I think as the stock has climbed so much, expectations have risen.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think market (at least the bears) may say that 5k/wk is burst rate at the end of June, and Tesla will drop down to much lower rate in July or even August, guiding 60k for Q3 would nip that narrative in the buds.
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im definitely curious as to if they say the slowed down production to avoid the FIT credit phase out (if they are below 200k)
Because that would be kind of a weird excuse.
Q2 EC is going to be pretty epic, and Q3 is going to be even better. What an exciting stock to follow either way!
Because that would be kind of a weird excuse.
Q2 EC is going to be pretty epic, and Q3 is going to be even better. What an exciting stock to follow either way!
Mike Smith
Active Member
It would mean production hell is over and it's time to cover. There just wouldn't be any reason left to be short. Tesla doesn't have a history of production problems once they reach a steady state. Look how steady Model S/X have been.
A legit 5k/week would cause a squeeze, a
"5k per week in the last 7 days and 22k for the Q"
or "5k per week rate over the last 3 days and 22k for the Q"
or "Demonstrated the ability of 5k per week in each area, and 22k for the Q"
ANything like that, it might even gap down. I think the big players are growing wary of all the wordsmithing. Going forward I think the total produced during the quarter is the more important metric. The market knows the "per week" language is not being reported in a reliable or sustainable manner.
"5k per week in the last 7 days and 22k for the Q"
or "5k per week rate over the last 3 days and 22k for the Q"
or "Demonstrated the ability of 5k per week in each area, and 22k for the Q"
ANything like that, it might even gap down. I think the big players are growing wary of all the wordsmithing. Going forward I think the total produced during the quarter is the more important metric. The market knows the "per week" language is not being reported in a reliable or sustainable manner.
bdy0627
Active Member
Ok. I see what you mean there. That would explain Elon's confidence that the short position is going to explode in a few weeks. He may not even be sure exactly when all of the lines will be cranking out 5,000 in total, but with the new tent line coming online, he may know it will be very soon at least. That would also fit with his strategy of starting up P3 once they hit 5,000/week. There probably wouldn't be any clear sign of this until the delivery numbers are announced along with Q3 guidance.
If this is the case, then the Q2 deliveries announcement is the timing for the catalyst. The stock would almost certainly start to climb at least a few days before as those in the know start buying more stock. That means there aren't many trading days left. When do we expect the announcement? Some time during the first week in July, right?
bdy0627
Active Member
Q2 2017 deliveries announcement was on Monday, July 3rd. So this year, perhaps it will be Monday, July 2nd?
It's been 3rd of July before, one day before the US independence day holiday. So we have 5 days next week then Monday the following week. I think next week will be a big push for shorts to FUD as much as possible and also start to move goal posts in preparation for the 5k a week announcement; Hoping the numbers knock it out the park and there is no doubt Tesla has turned the corner.
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