TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

I think the problem the bulls may have with presenting this positively is that the obvious rejoinder is to ask, if this is a good thing now, why it wasn't a good thing three years ago. It may add to concerns about managerial competence in the company,

Hey, *I* have concerns about managerial competence in the company. That isn't a case which has been made by any bears. Ever. I think it ends up being immaterial due to the pathetic state of the "competition".

 

[neroden]

I had expected a quiet time on Tesla news until the delivery update, but this news will cause all analysts to review the portion of their valuation which relates to Tesla Energy, so we may see some up/downgrades prior to the report.

Most of them were valuing it at zero before *sigh* so I'm not sure this will cause any of them to do revaluation

 

[Boomer19]

Why would production be affected by the 200k FIT credit? No reason to reduce production, only deliveries

correct, deliveries...my typo

 

[wipster]

Q2 2017 deliveries announcement was on Monday, July 3rd. So this year, perhaps it will be Monday, July 2nd?

I think it will be right after closing on July 3rd, giving interested parties the holiday to think about it. And if the news is positive, come Thursday morning let the slaughter begin. If not, look out below...

 

[Boomer19]

I think it will be right after closing on July 3rd, giving interested parties the holiday to think about it. And if the news is positive, come Thursday morning let the slaughter begin. If not, look out below...

the deliveries numbers are going to be understated for q2 bc of 200k
when july 1 hits and deliveries take off (hopefully) that will become news. considering what a leaky ship it’s been, i don’t think we’ll need to wait to first week of oct to get q3 deliveries

 

[neroden]

Pedro Rezzarno on Twitter
"Tesla production hit 680 today. Times 7 that is 4,760 per week. By Mid July they’ll hit 800 per day.

We won!!!

Thoughts?

(1) Always take a leak with a grain of salt, particularly a secondhand leak. I never, ever act on such "information" as it is unreliable.
(2) Production ramping isn't smooth, so there's no reason to believe they'll be at 800 per day by mid-July. This all depends on what the next bottleneck is.
(3) That said, I firmly believe that Tesla will acheive 5000/week in July and continue increasing production after that. As I have for months.

 

[Mike Smith]

Ok. I see what you mean there. That would explain Elon's confidence that the short position is going to explode in a few weeks. He may not even be sure exactly when all of the lines will be cranking out 5,000 in total, but with the new tent line coming online, he may know it will be very soon at least. That would also fit with his strategy of starting up P3 once they hit 5,000/week. There probably wouldn't be any clear sign of this until the delivery numbers are announced along with Q3 guidance.

If this is the case, then the Q2 deliveries announcement is the timing for the catalyst. The stock would almost certainly start to climb at least a few days before as those in the know start buying more stock. That means there aren't many trading days left. When do we expect the announcement? Some time during the first week in July, right?

I don't think these production per week targets matter much anymore, since they haven't correlating with actual quarterly production numbers. This is why I say giving an actual total deliveries or production estimate for Q3 would be so important, and cause a squeeze.

 

[jhm]

Closed at 333... that's half of 666...

Blessed are the meek, for they will inherit the earth.

 

[Todd Burch]

i hope you’re right, but most times a seemingly perfectly choreographed move, in the end, does just the opposite. maybe our elusive ATH’s won’t be attained until 6-12 months from now, instead of 0-6 months. i’d prefer it now hahh, but we’ll see.

I think ATH is just weeks away.

 

[Ellec]

the deliveries numbers are going to be understated for q2 bc of 200k
when july 1 hits and deliveries take off (hopefully) that will become news. considering what a leaky ship it’s been, i don’t think we’ll need to wait to first week of oct to get q3 deliveries

200k only applies to the US, they have been delivering to Canada as well. Also remember he 5k a week is about production, so Tesla might be stockpiling model 3's, as long as hey can show production at 5k they have Q3 to deliver

 

[Ellec]

I think ATH is just weeks away.

ATH will be hit in 2 weeks, $500 will be ht by end of Q3.

 

[Boomer19]

200k only applies to the US, they have been delivering to Canada as well. Also remember he 5k a week is about production, so Tesla might be stockpiling model 3's, as long as hey can show production at 5k they have Q3 to deliver

indeed

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, I'm glad I lightened up on TSLA.
See my Sig

I got fair amount of 'funny', and I said it that way, but truth is this is my lowest exposure to TSLA in 3 years.
One moment I'm feeling relieved, and the next I'm feeling naked without any leverage.

 

[22522]

Hey, *I* have concerns about managerial competence in the company. That isn't a case which has been made by any bears. Ever. I think it ends up being immaterial due to the pathetic state of the "competition".

It is not immaterial, as it can be stated that the relative competence of Tesla management is good.

Key reasons for holding the stock:

1) Relative management competence at Tesla is significantly better.
2) Direction is better.
3) Dividend policy is better.

 

[AlMc]

I got fair amount of 'funny', and I said it that way, but truth is this is my lowest exposure to TSLA in 3 years.
One moment I'm feeling relieved, and the next I'm feeling naked without any leverage.

FOMO is tough. I have been fighting it when it comes to adding more TSLA (stock or LEAPS)

 

[AlMc]

I do not think I am the only 'long' having FOMO but holding off. I heard that short selling amounted to less than 30% of shares traded today.

Seems both bulls and bears have NO idea what will happen over the next 10 days.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I do not think I am the only 'long' having FOMO but holding off. I heard that short selling amounted to less than 30% of shares traded today.

Seems both bulls and bears have NO idea what will happen over the next 10 days.

Given the pictures of the overflow lot and 1000s of M3 being staged, I have a feeling thousands of people will be getting notice of VIN assignments and scheduling delivery in ~ 1 wk. Maybe the stock price doesn't move up immediately 10 days from now, but if this keeps up, the clock is running out on shorts, very quickly.

 

[bdy0627]

the deliveries numbers are going to be understated for q2 bc of 200k
when july 1 hits and deliveries take off (hopefully) that will become news. considering what a leaky ship it’s been, i don’t think we’ll need to wait to first week of oct to get q3 deliveries

Yes, this won't be about Q2 production. It will be about confirming a production rate for Q3 along with guidance for total production for Q3. Giving guidance for big production numbers for July would be great too.

 

[Unpilot]

Gotta find some dry powder somewhere.

 

[bdy0627]

Yes, this won't be about Q2 production. It will be about confirming a production rate for Q3 along with guidance for total production for Q3. Giving guidance for big production numbers for July would be great too.

The remaining question that skeptics will raise will be the effect on gross margins given the extra GA lines. It would be great to hear info on that.