Not sure how long *that* will take, but once people start actually assessing the effects of the trade war on individual stocks, I suspect Amazon and Netflix will come roaring back and Tesla will as well... while a bunch of other companies like Nvidia are *far* more exposed.
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I think they can handle shipping / delivery; easier when the cars are coming off four lines than off one. The bottleneck was loading, IIRC.
As someone who owns a stake in Nvidia and has held their shares for years, I must think we will be disagreeing strongly here. Nvidia's primary and largest markets are not in China, Nvidia's chips are manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC, and Nvidia's growth markets will continue to grow with or without import tariffs.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Today was not a terrible day.
Today was not even a lousy day.
The NASDAQ had a terrible day.
The DOW had a lousy day.
But TESLA, TESLA had a soso day.
NASDAQ -2.09 %
DOW -1.33 %
TESLA -0.19 %
Today was not even a lousy day.
The NASDAQ had a terrible day.
The DOW had a lousy day.
But TESLA, TESLA had a soso day.
NASDAQ -2.09 %
DOW -1.33 %
TESLA -0.19 %
Very true. Tesla can support multiple bear theses.
Bears are no where near as united as the bulls
Once GAAP profitability is sustained, credit ratings on the unsecured debt are in the Bs and off negative outlook, and working capital comes close to zero, I would consider buying at any PEG under 20.
Sounds a little ridiculous to be short (or long) based on emotional factors such as personal likes or dislikes or political views.
In my experience, Electrek is pretty much the most balanced news site that covers Tesla. They don't present speculation as fact, they pretty much always try to look at new information from more than one side, and they avoid misleading headlines, statements, etc.
(And yes, that is ridiculous. But in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.)
They also cover important news that no one in the mainstream press does, which is a significant public service.
New bear argument:
Model 3 may have huge demand, and maybe Tesla can make 5k/ week and maybe the Germans can’t make EVs anytime soon but the company is still overvalued because we want to ignore energy, Model Y, China GF and semi.
Model 3 may have huge demand, and maybe Tesla can make 5k/ week and maybe the Germans can’t make EVs anytime soon but the company is still overvalued because we want to ignore energy, Model Y, China GF and semi.
Not really a new one I dare to say. We all should get used to, if not already, are that they once Tesla has proven the old narrative is wrong by hard facts that they turn around and claim an new one.
Interestingly they never explain why they have been wrong with the previous one and the one before and so on. You may believe that they should have some kind of a learning curve in their argumentation but I could not find one.
In terms of investments for Y, GFs and Semi they will realize that although large investments are clearly required with a cash cow like M3 the ability to finance this organically has grown dramatically. The movement from S and X to 3 is a major corner stone to be able to finance larger investments on its own.
Still there are waiting major efforts in front of Tesla and it won't be easy but comparing it to the past the options Tesla has to manage required CapEx is increasing fast. If they managed the really difficult ones in the past what should hinder them to manage the less difficult ones with more options to capitalize for the future?
However, I agree they will find a new story to mislead the not educated investor and reader.
In that case I was too fast on the trigger - in truth I also do not have full access and relied on (two different) accounts of the report.
Two years of quarterly numbers in a semi-log-plot could actually indicate an exponential change in the numbers - and if the service cost grows with the number of cars sold, then the exponential growth could very well fit with the actual development of Tesla's production, as hinted by others.
I will be more careful next time.
That Sacconaghi guy may be looking at the quarterly data and use more than 2 datapoints. Since i don't have access to the full report i can't verify that, someone else may want to do that. The chart is taken from the SA article i linked below. While you don't have to agree with the authors conclusions, i'd assume he is able to represent the numbers from the quarterly reports accuratly.
Is Tesla Overstating Margins? - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Jim Cramer on Tesla Margins
What Tesla Needs to Do to Fight Off High-End Automakers Going Electric
Bears are no where near as united as the bulls
Problem is the bears yell louder than the bulls
This might help.
Tesla has value chain advantages as one of the only US companies that believes in multi-axis investment as more than a check box.
The pharmaceutical companies and aircraft company invest along existing business models.
The fertile ground for profitability (and patents/IP, BTW) is in between fields [business models] that have "cottoned out."
Tesla lands on that fertile part of the map. And invests there.... This is starting to sound Biblical... In proportions. Of biblical proportions.
There is something to what you say, but it is not always relevant because the domain of application is off by an order of magnitude. Yes, what you say is valid for companies with mature, entrenched, refined and duplicated value chains. Tesla is not one of those companies.
[Edit: Here is a Merriam-Webster dictionary link for those from other cultures that may not understand the term "cottoned out:" Definition of COTTONED OUT
And here is a relavant example of what "order of magnitude" means for those with a non-scientific background: a P/E of 20 threshold might want to be a P/E of 200 threshold, or 10 times higher. It comes from changing the exponent in scientific notation by one. Practically it means, "Just move the decimal point over one place."
I think the short term view of Wall Street, or focus on dividends creates a lot of "cottoned out" situations. ]
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Gerardf
Active Member
From what I read on Twitter and on Seeking Alpha (once every 10 comments but sometimes even in the articles) the bear thesis has recently moved to hoping / praying for a SEC investigation, or an announcement of one. A SEC investigation that several bears are actively trying to trigger using lies, FUD etc, etc.
Goal of at least some of them seems to be to kill Tesla.
Goal of at least some of them seems to be to kill Tesla.
jhm
Well-Known Member
When you're confident that Tesla is growing and will continue to grow, there is little need to be loud about it. But if your bet is based on turning sentiment against what is plainly a growing enterprise, then you must tell like hell. I find those who have quiet confidence in their investment to be much more credible than those who must constantly agitate and dominate the narrative. The narrative will always circle back to enormous growth because that is what this company delivers consistently year after year.
Great idea to short some companies as a downturn hedge. I think I'll try some hedging shorting Daimler and BMW.
I've read on the internet that they also have some serious software skills.
Personally, I am waiting for a basic Tesla network app now so that i can drive around in my M3 for some pocket change without signing up with uber or lyft.
I guess i always knew the northeast is a whole other culture. ;-)
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