TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Iceman]

$345 sell order may trigger. I just hope it doesn't give it all back this afternoon like the last couple of days. I feel so sorry for Trend Trader, he was so close.

345.01 confirmed.

And no joke man.... I feel for TT007. He got crushed on the perfect storm of a market-wide correction right after an ER that was interpreted in a more negative light than it should have been. He loaded up like crazy (he said) at 343 and now it´s trading at 345 and will probably rise linearly with the sun as winter/spring/summer comes along.

Life is a bitch sometimes.

But wohoo for the stock being upp 11+ bucks today!

 

[dmckinstry]

345.01 confirmed.

My 345.00 limit filled. Now I hope that it drops back down to 330 so I can re-buy. OTOH, if it never drops below 345 again, I'll be happy.

 

[The Blue Owl]

My guess is that it's the articles about Tesla outselling luxury brands in Germany. That's a bit of a wakeup call for a lot of people.

Maybe that, and the fact that S and X delieveries have been pushed back, which Tesla said was due to a spike in demand. Could be orders from people not wanting to wait for their 3.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

My 345.00 limit filled. Now I hope that it drops back down to 330 so I can re-buy. OTOH, if it never drops below 345 again, I'll be happy.

Nice! I sold yesterday’s 335s for 341 this morning, $4 too early. But I’m fine capturing 60% of the available volatility. And my core holdings are there to soak up the rise.

No need for it to drop down to 330 again. There’ll be plenty of trading opportunities in the 340s and above.

 

[Iceman]

My 345.00 limit filled. Now I hope that it drops back down to 330 so I can re-buy. OTOH, if it never drops below 345 again, I'll be happy.

And now, just because you said that, it will consolidate between 342 and 345 for a month.

Jinx!

 

[SteveG3]

I also thought about day-trading some shares, but I'm scared to death that at a certain point the SP will rise and keep going, so I stick with my buy & hold strategy.

On top of that I'm paying €30 per trade, so would need >€60 movement to make a profit.

Yes, that would be very likely at some point, and make an otherwise welcome event quite unpleasant.

There's a simple fix to this- reversing the order you do things. That is, buy and hold position never touched. Trading shares added at irrational swoons, sold, on rebounds. Of course, this requires a little bit of funds available to do this. If you have a fair amount of funds, this strategy is best done doing the buying in steps (sort of like leaving out a set of nets in the water to snare some catches). It basically gives a very high probability opening to make money off the +/-$30 to $50 next to every TSLA price quote.

 

[jhm]

I think we're due for a new ATH in the next few months. The last time near ATH in Sept was based on hope of reaching 5k/week by year end (3-4 for months out from peak). This production target is pushed out about six months, So we could be challenging again the ATH in March or April. This is a simple time shift argument.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Sold 20 shares of my trading lot at 345. Looking for 360-365 to sell the next 30 shares. I keep 100 shares to trade. Rest long term so selling very small %.

 

[f?Re]

Given TT, and that I was carrying a small margin (~5% of portfolio) after the last dive, set-up a number of escalating orders on Sep '18 345 calls and various Jan '19 calls. Most of the Jan '19 calls hit with today's rise.
Have some cash, out of margins and feel better. Unfortunately all short-term gains, but so it goes.
Raised the Sep '18 limits since I can carry them now more comfortably if we go higher around end Q1-early-Q2 as seems to be expected.
Still have a fair number of DITM '20 calls (DITM now, not a few weeks ago) that I plan to hold until long-term capital gains.
Still holding core TSLA stock but will use cash to diversify on drops on other stocks I own, I hope.
Not advice.

 

[Menifeer]

Selling March 2 $355 & $360 Calls.

 

[Jayjs20]

I also thought about day-trading some shares, but I'm scared to death that at a certain point the SP will rise and keep going, so I stick with my buy & hold strategy.

On top of that I'm paying €30 per trade, so would need >€60 movement to make a profit.

Gather around and sit at my feet and I shall tell you a tale of both sadness and joy.

The year was the good old days of 2016. Our president was the president at the time. There was once a man, a good man. He kept putting half his take home pay into TSLA, only to see it being chipped away week after week from a dropping SP. There was no solace for that man, all he knew was despair, but he kept soldiering on, knowing TSLA will do well one day. Suddenly, around the end of the year, TSLA jumped. Then jumped again, and again, and yet again. "What is this witchcraft?", he thought. This is too unnatural, this has jumped too much, it's wiser to sell now. So, he sold, expecting TSLA to fall and correct itself. Except, he was wrong. It kept jumping. Another 10 points, another 20 points, and beyond.

"This is absolutely nuts. Should I buy back in now, knowing that the price is unnaturally high?" Eventually, he broke down and bought back in, knowing the gains he had lost from selling early. To his good fortune, it kept climbing higher and higher. However, once again, he was getting cold feet. "This is getting stupid now. For months, it's gone up in a straight line for seemingly no reason!". Once again, he sold, and once again, he fell into despair, seeing the SP climb higher and higher.

Then he bought in again, then the price crashed. Once again, despair.

Some time later, he sold due to needing to transfer money around and the price dropped around 50 points, which made him happy when he bought back in.

Moral of the story is to be very care when jumping in and out like that.

 

[Reciprocity]

Gather around and sit at my feet and I shall tell you a tale of both sadness and joy.

The year was the good old days of 2016. Our president was the president at the time. There was once a man, a good man. He kept putting half his take home pay into TSLA, only to see it being chipped away week after week from a dropping SP. There was no solace for that man, all he knew was despair, but he kept soldiering on, knowing TSLA will do well one day. Suddenly, around the end of the year, TSLA jumped. Then jumped again, and again, and yet again. "What is this witchcraft?", he thought. This is too unnatural, this has jumped too much, it's wiser to sell now. So, he sold, expecting TSLA to fall and correct itself. Except, he was wrong. It kept jumping. Another 10 points, another 20 points, and beyond.

"This is absolutely nuts. Should I buy back in now, knowing that the price is unnaturally high?" Eventually, he broke down and bought back in, knowing the gains he had lost from selling early. To his good fortune, it kept climbing higher and higher. However, once again, he was getting cold feet. "This is getting stupid now. For months, it's gone up in a straight line for seemingly no reason!". Once again, he sold, and once again, he fell into despair, seeing the SP climb higher and higher.

Then he bought in again, then the price crashed. Once again, despair.

Some time later, he sold due to needing to transfer money around and the price dropped around 50 points, which made him happy when he bought back in.

Moral of the story is to be very care when jumping in and out like that.

I have only lost money jumping in and out of TSLA. Never gained more then a half a nickle on a round trip. Best idea seems to be add when the stock dips. Its tuff because you have money when you have money. I have pushed up my IRA and Roth type contributions but I am ahead so I cannot do it again until next year. I transfer my HSA every time I get more then 1000 in there so that I can invest it into TSLA.

 

[Manton]

Like many others, i happily bought back in at $336 before macros messed everything up. If not for macros i think $336 would have been a great entry. Just old at $344, assuming we'll see mid $330's next week.

Any reason for today's action?

 

[Tslynk67]

Gather around and sit at my feet and I shall tell you a tale of both sadness and joy.

The year was the good old days of 2016. Our president was the president at the time. There was once a man, a good man. He kept putting half his take home pay into TSLA, only to see it being chipped away week after week from a dropping SP. There was no solace for that man, all he knew was despair, but he kept soldiering on, knowing TSLA will do well one day. Suddenly, around the end of the year, TSLA jumped. Then jumped again, and again, and yet again. "What is this witchcraft?", he thought. This is too unnatural, this has jumped too much, it's wiser to sell now. So, he sold, expecting TSLA to fall and correct itself. Except, he was wrong. It kept jumping. Another 10 points, another 20 points, and beyond.

"This is absolutely nuts. Should I buy back in now, knowing that the price is unnaturally high?" Eventually, he broke down and bought back in, knowing the gains he had lost from selling early. To his good fortune, it kept climbing higher and higher. However, once again, he was getting cold feet. "This is getting stupid now. For months, it's gone up in a straight line for seemingly no reason!". Once again, he sold, and once again, he fell into despair, seeing the SP climb higher and higher.

Then he bought in again, then the price crashed. Once again, despair.

Some time later, he sold due to needing to transfer money around and the price dropped around 50 points, which made him happy when he bought back in.

Moral of the story is to be very care when jumping in and out like that.

Well you are quite famous around these parts for buying high/selling low, at least that was the case a year back.

Or just buy and hold, as I do now Most of my little stash having been bought in the big Feb 2016 dip, the best opportunity of the last 4 years - all very lucky timing-wise, I admit

 

[bdy0627]

Yes, that would be very likely at some point, and make an otherwise welcome event quite unpleasant.

There's a simple fix to this- reversing the order you do things. That is, buy and hold position never touched. Trading shares added at irrational swoons, sold, on rebounds. Of course, this requires a little bit of funds available to do this. If you have a fair amount of funds, this strategy is best done doing the buying in steps (sort of like leaving out a set of nets in the water to snare some catches). It basically gives a very high probability opening to make money off the +/-$30 to $50 next to every TSLA price quote.

This is what I'm trying to do but it's hard to stay disciplined. The money tends to merge at some point and allocations diverge from the plan.

 

[bdy0627]

I have only lost money jumping in and out of TSLA. Never gained more then a half a nickle on a round trip. Best idea seems to be add when the stock dips. Its tuff because you have money when you have money. I have pushed up my IRA and Roth type contributions but I am ahead so I cannot do it again until next year. I transfer my HSA every time I get more then 1000 in there so that I can invest it into TSLA.

I think it's very difficult to consistently beat the shares/LEAPs approach from Papafox, Al, Ken, and others. Ride the climb SELLING LEAPs with the goal to be only in shares by the time you reach the next dip. Sell shares and BUY LEAPs on the dip. Contrarian seems to work well with TSLA. Sell LEAPs that have become more expensive on the rise to those greedy for LEAPs, and then buy them from those eager to get rid of them on a dip, when they are much cheaper. With this approach, you are never out of Tesla. You are merely increasing leverage when the risk/reward equation appears favorable and decreasing it when it doesn't. This has worked well for me when I have followed it. I find that I migrate away from it at various times for various reasons.

 

[mongo]

Sell shares and BUY LEAPs on the dip

Isn't selling shares on a dip a bad idea?

 

[gene]

Tesla has just opened up Model 3 configurations for non-owners of the S or X. With 3 to 6 weeks delivery estimates.

 

[Starno]

Hopefully the " first hour dip " don't get replaced by the " last hour dip " ....

 

[Reciprocity]

Hopefully the " first hour dip " don't get replaced by the " last hour dip " ....

Sold my Calls to early this morning.. about where it is now. 3.2% is still pretty good. Seeing a lot of red in specific tech names. though the Dow is still up pretty big. Nasdaq and SPX is fading a bit.