Because it's CASH not revenue that has to increase greatly (you have to reduce the revenue by the cash consumed in producing what is being sold.)
IMO, those who castigate Moody's now as being the pawn of FUDsters may be overlooking the fact that Moody's qualified it's initial B3 rating in early August 2017 with the caveat:
"The rating could be downgraded if there are major production or quality problems for the Model 3, if consumer demand erodes to the degree that the company cannot maintain its 5,000 per week production target through 2018, or if the level of Model 3 reservations supported by $1,000 deposits fall from the current level of 455,000 to below 350,000. A ratio of EBIT/interest approximating 0.5x would also pressure the rating."
At the same time S&P, while maintaining its B- ratings on Tesla's debt, warned:
“We could lower our ratings on Tesla if execution issues related to the Model 3 launch later this year or the ongoing expansion of its Models S and X production lead to significant cost overruns,” S&P said in a statement on the bonds."
When these evaluations were made, Tesla's guidance was the it would be producing 5,000 M3s a week by the end of December and Elon had just stated in the 2Q17 earnings conference call:
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. […] I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.”
The credit rating agencies were vilified after the 2008 financial crisis for having conflicts of interest and being too lenient in rating the flaky debt products that were being floated as a result of the Community Reinvestment Act amendments. One would presume they would be a little gun shy, but Moody's exhibited forebearance when Tesla's guidance was pushed back twice, by a quarter each time--once in November 2017 when the 3Q17 results were announced and again in February 2018 when the 4Q17 results were announced. Whether the Bloomberg tracker is precisely accurate or not, Moody's decided it could not wait until guidance was pushed back again.
Credit ratings rise and fall based on risk assessments and execution consistent with plans. Conservative managers of other people’s money tend to go to the side lines when they fall. The high beta players could care less.
