TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[phil0909]

Am I the only one who thinks that everyone gets too excited and overthinks things? I think Elon's purchase rules out any immediate deals, strategic partnership announcements, etc. Cause insider trading rules. I tend to think that his recent purchase is more to show his long-term view and direction - like a quarter or two ahead type of direction, not for the next week.

You may well be right. But if so, then what was Elon's twittering about the short squeeze? A joke? A lie? Meaningless nonsense? A nervous breakdown?

 

[bambam4171]

You have seen the already announced GWh sized Energy storage project, yes? You have heard from him the ramp is going well, yes?

Both of these already should raise SP quite a bit. And if the ego's of those analysts were smaller the SP would not have tanked during the call but raised considerably.

 

[30seconds]

If this percentage stay strong short through Q3 earnings and Tesla turn cash flow positive then yes, I think the short squeeze will be of biblical proportions.

It could happen before the first week of November (when I assume the Q3 earnings call occurs), maybe during the Q2 call (late July/ early August).

For it to occur before I think we need to see solid evidence of 4000+ production for a couple of weeks or an external trigger like a deal to finance a new GF.

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm wondering if anyone knows. Lets say, hypothetically speaking, a short squeeze happens tomorrow. What normally happens to options during a short squeeze? I can't imagine people flocking to call options thinking it'll actually last in the long term, or even short term.

I imagine implied vol would spike and majorly drive up option prices . Premiums would get really high at least in near expirations. I can't decide if gamma would spike or fall due to the price changes mostly being positive.

 

[Irishjugg]

Longer expiration PUT options get more expensive. As Elon says "PLACE YOUR BETS" If the underlying share price doesn't collapse before expiration, option writers pocket the premiums.

Calls get more expensive too right? Volatility should pop like crazy? Or does the one directional underlying price move actually decrease vol?

 

[Irishjugg]

BRB buying $350 calls for the EOM

If only we got delivery numbers in June the Jun 8 weekly would be really sexy

 

[Irishjugg]

One difference from 2013 and now is option premiums. Due to tsla volatility the option prices are very high. I think this is tough to play. Sell options and lock in great gains, but miss out on big jump. Buy hoping to win the lottery is for beer money, no more.
After the delayed ramp, I’ve switched to all stock, no options. Maybe another bad timing in an illustrious collection. Barring a China announcement of Tencent oe someone funding a plant, I don’t see a squeeze happening before 5000 per week and an announcement that they are cash flow positive.

I tend to agree with your thinking on timing Honestly, it might need to wait for that positive EPS hopefully in Q3 but definitely by Q4. So many shorts and analysts are likely to write things like "while we are encouraged by model 3 ramp we are not convinced that Tesla can make money at the current blah blah cash burn blah blah raise capital, blah blah raise price target 38 cents, underweight rating"

 

[dhrivnak]

You may well be right. But if so, then what was Elon's twittering about the short squeeze? A joke? A lie? Meaningless nonsense? A nervous breakdown?

If Tesla starts selling north of 20,000 Model 3s a month (something promised) then I fully expect a short squeeze. I think Elon is showing they are confident that production will soon ramp to profitable levels.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Two killed in Tesla car crash in Florida

A third person in the Model S sedan was taken to a hospital, the Miami Herald late on Tuesday, adding it was not immediately clear what caused the wreck

 

[Todd Burch]

Two killed in Tesla car crash in Florida

A third person in the Model S sedan was taken to a hospital, the Miami Herald late on Tuesday, adding it was not immediately clear what caused the wreck (graphic).

Tesla Inc was not immediately available for comment.

Are car manufacturers always contacted for comment every time one of their cars crashes and kills someone? That's so weird.

I can't ever remember reading a story "A Toyota car crashed, killing an occupant. Toyota was not immediately available for comment."

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla driver apparently survived:

Everything I have seen said it was the passenger in the rear that was thrown out of the car that survived.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Everything I have seen said it was the passenger in the rear that was thrown out of the car that survived.

Thanks, I likely interpreted it incorrectly by assuming there was another vehicle involved. I haven't seen any other reports with more information.

 

[MP3Mike]

Thanks, I likely interpreted it incorrectly by assuming there was another vehicle involved. I haven't seen any other reports with more information.

There are links to more stories in the thread about this: Dual Fatality Model S Crash/Fire: Fort Lauderdale, FL May 8, 2018

 

[MikeInFL]

This accident is horrible. The fact someone filmed the people burning does not help the situation.

Also, I find it akward that this news is going up right as the market opens. Posts on here and Reddit at nearly the same time.

 

[Crowded Mind]

There are links to more stories in the thread about this: Dual Fatality Model S Crash/Fire: Fort Lauderdale, FL May 8, 2018

Thanks. Doesn't appear to be related to anything with Autopilot so I wouldn't expect much impact on the stock. Sad to hear of any accident, but as others have said, we wouldn't even know about it if it wasn't Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

There is, unfortunately, an issue with Tesla's compared to other EV's regarding combustion after a crash because of the cell chemistry.

 

[SinghCo]

More FUD play on voting out directors. The letter makes no sense. Financial impact due to capital for the model 3, bosch was the reason for the recall, rather have more investments in infrastructure as demand > supply, plus leverage scale.

Tesla - Notice of Exempt Solicitation

 

[farzyness]

There is, unfortunately, an issue with Tesla's compared to other EV's regarding combustion after a crash because of the cell chemistry.

All that matters is that battery cell chemistry, regardless of you the OEM is, allows for much less energy density to be stored vs. their ICE counterparts, allowing for a high chance of survival from combustion in the car.

 

[Mkorpal]

There is, unfortunately, an issue with Tesla's compared to other EV's regarding combustion after a crash because of the cell chemistry.

Is it really true though? Are Tesla's more likely to catch fire vs Leafs or Bolts. Or do we simply hear about it more when it does happen, since we seem to get news of literally every collision involving a Tesla.

 

[mongo]

Is it really true though? Are Tesla's more likely to catch fire vs Leafs or Bolts. Or do we simply hear about it more when it does happen, since we seem to get news of literally every collision involving a Tesla.

Only because they go fast enough to create a high energy crash.. Bumper cars don't burn...
#trueSnark