TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

I guess the VIN trackers can all take a break
VIN Assignment

"Someone in the Canadian forum stated that their DS told them Tesla is changing their policy to only post the VIN in your account when they are within 7 days of you delivery date."

corroborated by another poster from Florida.

This could make some production estimate look low for a while.

Looks like we’ll have to rely more on VIN registration instead, or find a way to crack the 7 day count and go from there. I’m sure the diehard fans are working on it.

For those that have barely time to read the other parts of this forum

Repair time - 6 months!??!


...unfortunately looks like the bear died. if you read the thread, though, it is stuff like this that gives credence to some of the bear arguments.

Tesla hits bear.

For context, the 6 months wait time is for a Model S repair. The individual bought a P100D, I hope they get his vehicle fixed soon.

This is the first time I’ve felt sorry for a bear.

 

[sundaymorning]

Yes fi*res occur, even to gasoline cars. My bet is that this truck f*re will get minimal coverage, just like the BMW recall and the Porsche cheat device. We can’t expect any better fromthe media and their gang mentality.

Fiery truck crash caught on video

These stories just today on BBC Business...

60k Porsches to be recalled due to defeat software: Abgasskandal: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt ruft 60.000 Porsche zurück - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Auto

And fuel-prices rising in the UK, I can imagine whole Europe: Danni Hewson on Twitter

Yes, that's £1,30.5 a litre, which translates to $6.60 per gallon...

And finally, BMW recalling due to cars "catching fire":

BMW recalled almost 50,000 cars in the US earlier this month to rectify fan blowers that could overheat.

As with last week's recall, BMW initially thought the fault wouldn't occur in Europe because in a cooler climate the system is under less stress.

BMW says it is aware of six cases in which UK-spec cars have caught fire - it is not aware of any injuries.

BMW said in a statement: "BMW has chosen to expand on its existing battery connector recall by also replacing the blower-regulator wiring harness on affected 3 Series models. This involves replacing two wiring connections on the cars already affected and recalling an additional 88,000 cars in the UK.

"We are taking the opportunity of the existing recall to proactively check and replace the wiring harness of the blower regulator. In doing so we are taking every precaution in terms of safety while minimising disruption and inconvenience to affected customers.

"This affects BMW 3 Series models manufactured between December 2004 and July 2011. BMW has notified the DVSA of its intention to recall and will begin the recall process immediately."

 

[bdy0627]

Exactly! Great things are happening and the market is irrationally ignoring those in favor of ignorant arguments, some of which were even directly, verbally, and specifically refuted by the CEO and leadership team.

If you polled this entire forum, I can almost guarantee this is the exact type of situation that has made people the most money .[/QUOTE]
That is so very true!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Good timing on this drop today, I'm looking to accumulate

 

[rocketlow49]

I have a question about SEC Filings, may be simple or not!

What is a Notice of Exemption? This was filed today.
Tesla - Notice of Exempt Solicitation

Thanks,
Henry

 

[bdy0627]

Given the frustrations going on with the latest stock movement, here's an update on the current dip. It always helps me to step back and look at Tesla's stock pattern. We are currently down 12.5% from a local high of $313 on 5/10. Looking at the weekly chart, which reduces the volatility a little bit, here are the dips and climbs since October 2016. I've got the data going back a couple of years before that, but I can't fit it on a screenshot. The averages at the bottom use the earlier data that is not shown here.

Note that this dip is still less than the average, though the average is heavily influenced by a handful of larger dips. Most importantly, look at the recoveries and how quickly they happen. Again, this is all listed in weeks. There is no guarantee that this pattern will continue, but this is TSLA after all, and there are years of data. An investor who added on dips for swing trading purposes, selling some on the next climb, has done very very well, even when the stock is at the same price a year later.

 

[mongo]

I have a question about SEC Filings, may be simple or not!

What is a Notice of Exemption? This was filed today.
Tesla - Notice of Exempt Solicitation

Thanks,
Henry

From SEC Form PX14A6G

DEFINITION of 'SEC Form PX14A6G'
A filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that must be filed by or on behalf of a registrant that wishes to send written material to shareholders. SEC Form PX14A6G acts as a cover page for a copy of a letter sent to shareholders outlining reasons why the sending party wants them to vote a particular way - such as voting for particular members of the board of directors or voting against a proposed stock transaction.

Title page is
"TESLA, INC.
Filed by
CTW INVESTMENT GROUP"
So I think CTW owns more than 5 million in TSLA and sent these items out to influence the upcoming vote.

 

[Irishjugg]

From SEC Form PX14A6G


Title page is
"TESLA, INC.
Filed by
CTW INVESTMENT GROUP"
So I think CTW owns more than 5 million in TSLA and sent these items out to influence the upcoming vote.

I'm not sure they own that much?

Should be a way to find out right? I might have this mistaken with a different shareholder, but didn't a group with 13 shares propose this? Or was that the remove Elon nonsense?

 

[mongo]

I'm not sure they own that much?

Should be a way to find out right? I might have this mistaken with a different shareholder, but didn't a group with 13 shares propose this? Or was that the remove Elon nonsense?

That was the remove Elon thing.
This was all from Google, so I'm not sure. I expect you can file it even if you are under the required level...

 

[Ocelot]

For those that have barely time to read the other parts of this forum

Repair time - 6 months!??!


...unfortunately looks like the bear died. if you read the thread, though, it is stuff like this that gives credence to some of the bear arguments.

Could the people who disagree state why?
I debated posting the picture of the bear, as it is graphic, and it came out bigger than I anticipated, however asides for that is there a reason you disagree?

How much perma-bull do you have to be to think that it is any way acceptable to have a new car, that is still under production, (ie. not scrounging ebay for parts) in a shop for 6 months to get a repair done? ..and its not done yet, so who knows how many months it might be. Think Tesla service will be better with more and more Tesla's on the road, as the ramp increases? I do understand it is an independent shop, but they are Tesla certified, and if, and thats a really, really big IF , it is solely the shop, someone from Tesla should take the bull by the horns so to speak, and put the pressure on them. Those following here long enough, realize this is not an isolated thing, and hence very likely Tesla is playing a role in this delay.

 

[Irishjugg]

Yeah it's

Could the people who disagree state why?
I debated posting the picture of the bear, as it is graphic, and it came out bigger than I anticipated, however asides for that is there a reason you disagree?

How much perma-bull do you have to be to think that it is any way acceptable to have a new car, that is still under production, (ie. not scrounging ebay for parts) in a shop for 6 months to get a repair done? ..and its not done yet, so who knows how many months it might be. Think Tesla service will be better with more and more Tesla's on the road, as the ramp increases? I do understand it is an independent shop, but they are Tesla certified, and if, and thats a really, really big IF , it is solely the shop, someone from Tesla should take the bull by the horns so to speak, and put the pressure on them. Those following here long enough, realize this is not an isolated thing, and hence very likely Tesla is playing a role in this delay.

Yep it's reasonably concerning. Don't think it will effect stock prices in the near term or anything though

 

[defc0n]

You misspelled "wait, then buy more"

What I should have said was, get out, wait a bit, then get back in . 268 is what I’m watching for next.

 

[kbM3]

I do see one exception to all this which I do think is important to consider... misinformed negative sentiment on Tesla's products. If that gets high enough to the point that Tesla's growth is impacted, that's a real event for Tesla's valuation. Elon actually stated that this was the reason he aggressively responded to the NY Times 2013 "Broder" story where they implied the SuperCharger network will leave Tesla owners cold and stranded on the side of the road. I don't think we are there yet re efforts that involve misinforming about Tesla's products today... but, I don't expect those efforts to end any time soon.

This is my biggest fear. The press (influenced by Tesla’s enemies I’m guessing) is hammering the following:

1) Teslas are unsafe. You will die in a fiery crash.
2) Teslas have low quality.

This is relentless, day after day after day.

The power of non-stop attacks shows up in politics and is very effective.

Tesla and bulls can try and fight with facts and statistics, but a reputation as unsafe and low quality can be extremely difficult to overcome.

 

[jelloslug]

This is my biggest fear. The press (influenced by Tesla’s enemies I’m guessing) is hammering the following:

1) Teslas are unsafe. You will die in a fiery crash.
2) Teslas have low quality.

This is relentless, day after day after day.

The power of non-stop attacks shows up in politics and is very effective.

Tesla and bulls can try and fight with facts and statistics, but a reputation as unsafe and low quality can be extremely difficult to overcome.

People still buy MBs, BMWs, and Jags even though it's well known that they are not reliable at all.

 

[sundaymorning]

The Tesla shareholder meeting is June 6th, Elon’s flamethrower comment comes to mind. I hope he drops the mic on production during this meeting. If production is going as planned, I think there’s much to be excited about for the coming weeks.

 

[RobStark]

The power of non-stop attacks shows up in politics and is very effective.

Tesla and bulls can try and fight with facts and statistics, but a reputation as unsafe and low quality can be extremely difficult to overcome.

The difference between Tesla and politics is Tesla does not need 50% plus 1 of the electorate.

Tesla can safely ignore the ignorant dumbass vote.

If it can get 1.5% of the US "electorate" to vote Tesla with their dollars and grow that 50% each year for ~5 years Tesla is half way home.

It needs a base of about .25% of the Chinese "electorate" and about .5% of the European "electorate" in 2019 and grow that 50% every year for ~5 years.

Then Tesla is sitting pretty for the 2024 and beyond.

 

[SteveG3]

This is my biggest fear. The press (influenced by Tesla’s enemies I’m guessing) is hammering the following:

1) Teslas are unsafe. You will die in a fiery crash.
2) Teslas have low quality.

This is relentless, day after day after day.

The power of non-stop attacks shows up in politics and is very effective.

Tesla and bulls can try and fight with facts and statistics, but a reputation as unsafe and low quality can be extremely difficult to overcome.

I don't like the game playing about the quality of the cars, but, I'm not too concerned about it being overcome. Hundreds of thousands of 3s seen first hand will be a loud messenger for the realities of these cars.

What concerns me more is the possibility of all the attention to AP turning into an "Autonomous vehicles are great if done right, Lidar, but, a public hazard if not done right, Teslas" campaign to keep the Tesla Network out of some key markets. Not to alarm anyone- I don't know if that's an under 1% risk or a considerably larger risk. fwiw, this sort of scenario is another reason I'm glad to see Tesla and China working more as partners these days.

It is open to us to respond some to these concerns,

Constructive Suggestions for Investor Response to Media Coverage Involving Tesla and Its Products

Investor CONSTRUCTIVE Suggestions and/or Requests of Tesla

 

[Waiting4M3]

This is my biggest fear. The press (influenced by Tesla’s enemies I’m guessing) is hammering the following:

1) Teslas are unsafe. You will die in a fiery crash.
2) Teslas have low quality.

This is relentless, day after day after day.

The power of non-stop attacks shows up in politics and is very effective.

Tesla and bulls can try and fight with facts and statistics, but a reputation as unsafe and low quality can be extremely difficult to overcome.

Fight it. Dec 2017 IIHS report shows Model S to be the 2nd safest large luxury car in terms of injury claims rate. Below table is across all 2014-2016 vehicles. For some reason lots of sports cars are on the list. If you take those out, it leaves Mercedes E-class station wagon, Land Rover Range Rover (SUV), and Model S.

How vehicles compare on insurance losses

 

[dc_h]

Good analysis on Soros here: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/05...os-really-give-Tesla-a--vote-of-confidence--/

Paywall, but I don’t think I need to read. Bullish theory, Soros buys dividend yielding option to buy stock at 360 if it runs. Bear story he buys bonds and uses convertible to short with not]r risk.
I’d say cautiously bullish move. He gets higher yield bond with option to convert at 360. He can sell covered calls at 360 and lock in 9-10% yield on the upside and get his bond back if tsla is solvent and below 360. If he’s a bear, he assuming a lot of risk for 9-10% interest.

 

[JRP3]

How much perma-bull do you have to be to think that it is any way acceptable to have a new car, that is still under production, (ie. not scrounging ebay for parts) in a shop for 6 months to get a repair done?

It's not. It's also not news, Tesla has always had a small minority of terrible service experiences. It's unfortunate and hopefully Tesla will get those incidents as close to zero as possible. Most people say Tesla service is great, and that's what really matters.