TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[zeed]

Hmm, he is really cocky about it the day before end of quarter. I think it means more than 5K. I'm just not convinced 5K causes a big burn, which is why I think there is more to it. I mean, the market kinda expects about 4K at this point, doesn't it? Perhaps 5K now, 6K by end of July, 10K confirmed by end of year?

.

I'm not sure either, not because if the catalyst, but because of the mechanics that drive a squeeze. If there are no (net) sellers and shorts are forced to become buyers, who knows what will happen. Also consider the possibility of there being some pent up buying, due to the seemingly uncertain meeting of 5k exactly by 11:59 tomorrow night. If 5k is confirmed, and we spring to all time highs (on the backdrop of China giga, profits 3Q, etc.), we get into literally uncharted price action, and who will be bold enough to call a top once that starts to roll? Not me that's for sure.

 

[hacer]

I think the production rates are less important now. The price cuts and the "everyone configure" mean that we are closer to the end game than I thought.

It's a good thing you don't know anything about Markov chains.

 

[Todd Burch]

I don’t think 5k/wk would be enough. That’s been Tesla’s goal all quarter. Hitting it won’t trigger what’s coming. Agree there’s more to it.

My guess:

1. >5k/wk production for at least 5 straight days at the time of the production announcement.

2. Model 3: At least 37k produced, 25k delivered. P/AWD already being delivered by time of announcement. ModelS+X: 24K delivered.

3. Chinese Gigafactory already under construction and fully funded by Tencent.

4. Cash hasn’t dropped nearly as much as many expected.

5. Semi production has moved slightly earlier than expected.

6. Strong increase in energy revenue.

Edit: Updated Model 3 production to 37k, not 32k.

 

[ggr]

A reminder to all that a lot of institutional investors will be on vacation all next week. This means light volume and big irrational swings, especially if there's ambiguous news. I suggest cancelling any stop-loss type orders for the week; they're too likely to be triggered by some flash trade just before a big swing up. Above all, in the immortal words of Douglas Adams:

DON'T PANIC!

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

A reminder to all that a lot of institutional investors will be on vacation all next week. This means light volume and big irrational swings, especially if there's ambiguous news. I suggest cancelling any stop-loss type orders for the week; they're too likely to be triggered by some flash trade just before a big swing up. Above all, in the immortal words of Douglas Adams:

DON'T PANIC!

Cant that also go the other direction on good news? Don’t set sell limit too low.

 

[Papafox]

Who wears short shorts?

What does it mean?

First there's the shorts that come up short angle,
Then there's the description of the band on the attached link:
"The Royal Teens are, by one definition, a hard-luck band."

You have to love Elon.

 

[jhm]

"Greasing the palms" has such a negative vibe. The proper term of art for the described behavior is "campaign contribution".

I thought the term of art was "Made a large loan to"?

 

[jhm]

is this a set up for a huge selloff monday? as @jhm suggested, the downdraft for a buying opportunity. but i dunno. this is low volume selling pressure, bc buyers aren’t there. it’s easy pickings for the sellers. with this week about to be digested, what’s the setup for next week. holiday in middle of week. lots of vacations, meaning less volume, adding to the downward pressure if whatever “news” everyone’s expecting doesn’t live up to hype, it’s going to be ugly before it gets pretty. thoughts?

buy side already out of office, another $2 + down

Yup. When the market vomits, we buy.

 

[jhm]

Yes.

Only because I believe that Tesla has irreversibly tipped the scales do I dare to write this now. But for several years I have worried that Elon Musk would suddenly meet with a fatal accident. I mean, apart from all of the above he has also caused Russia (basically a failed petro state) to pull out of the market for commercial space launches, to name just one more major industry disrupted by Elon. On top of that comes the worry that Elon Musk may very well put a lot of people of out work in his country of residence, a country unique for having an otherwise innocuous phrase such as "going postal" imply something very sinister. But I take comfort in his statement (quoting from memory): "I am likely to engage in a set of actions that will maximize my life span"...

Apologies for the mood of this post, but the Ambien that was supposed to be next to the Red wine is missing...

Nothing to worry about. Elon has taken the precaution of cloning himself several times over. These clones are hidden away in multiple and distinct undisclosed locations and are capable of stepping in at a moments notice. In fact, you know balding Elon? He's actually Elon 1.0. Elon 2.0 liked blondes, so I think we may actually be on Elon 3.0 at the present moment. Several of the clones are active on Twitter. They mostly share the same account, but there was a clone iteration loop that became fascinated ethereum. But don't worry about that because the Elon Management System has assured us that only high functioning Elons will be deployed as our Supreme Leader. Next up, Bored Elon.

And in case you doubt what I say, how do you explain that Elon has twin sons and triplet sons?

 

[AZRI11]

You can‘t run a car factory on two shifts á 12 hours and 7 days sustainably. No way.

They are "manufacturing" burst rates which are not realistic (if real at all)

I worked in a factory years ago that only closed on xmas and New Years.

 

[jhm]

Re: earlier post about selling the SC network for $3B . . .

This would be the worst idea on the planet for survival of Tesla. It’s one if not the biggest advantage of any EV mfg. Currently no other EV can travel more than their range without HOURS of recharging- if they are working!!

I’ve only used about a dozen of SCs since being a Tesla owner but it’s GREAT!!

I can't imagine a price at which we would sell the Supercharger network. It's an essential component of the the whole enterprise.

 

[22522]

I worked in a factory years ago that only closed on xmas and New Years.

You can certainly run a factory on 2 ten hour shifts.

 

[dc_h]

Chinese Gigafactory already under construction and fully funded by Tencen

Chinese factory Sprung up by end of year. Will start with assembly of stamped parts from Fremont.

Not likely, but would be cool if they could move up production a year or two from expectations.

 

[mekberg]

Nothing to worry about. Elon has taken the precaution of cloning himself several times over.

Horcruxes?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Seriously you would hold dry powder because you’re convinced Elon was misguided when he tweeted about short burn of the century and shorts position exploding?

Don’t you give him any benefit of the doubt?

He is a pretty smart guy and he knows way more than we do.

I’m anticipating a major announcement.

Are you new here? No historical context? It's not enough to read about it if you haven't lived it.
For years now, trusting Elon's estimates was a recipe for disaster.
Having said that, (even) this time I do give him some benefit of the doubt. Probably a wrong move, been burnt so many times, what's one more...

 

[jhm]

It is not only obvious to us on this thread, I am impressed how often I hear random strangers, looking at my car, say to me "Of course, the bad press is due to the people who are threatened by Tesla!"

This is a good sign. All this bad media deserves to discredit itself. As people wise up to the manipulation, it becomes ineffective.

BTW, I like this one, Wait, Tesla's Model 3 Numbers Don't Matter?. This analyst gets it. Hitting precise numbers is not the issue, solid progress in the right direction is.

 

[RobStark]

And in case you doubt what I say, how do you explain that Elon has twin sons and triplet sons?

Elon is 5x more manly than the average man?

 

[RobStark]

For years now, trusting Elon's estimates was a recipe for disaster.
Having said that, (even) this time I do give him some benefit of the doubt. Probably a wrong move, been burnt so many times, what's one more...

 

[Seesaw]

I don’t think 5k/wk would be enough. That’s been Tesla’s goal all quarter. Hitting it won’t trigger what’s coming. Agree there’s more to it.

Could even be a small profit for the quarter

 

[AZRI11]

You can certainly run a factory on 2 ten hour shifts.

Factory was a wire & cable manufacturer. 4 12hr shifts. 4 days on 4 days off. Many people worked 10 or more days consecutively before a day off. I once worked 22 consecutive days in the summer with no air conditioning.