TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Tesla China plant said to roll into Lingang Area, Shanghai

wild guess, its in a SEZ but not a FTZ
(so no import tax, but its batteries initially preclude cafe style credits either)

That would be interesting. Information is very vague. I think Tesla is not remotely interested in getting the Chinese version of the CAFE credits, and will not try to get them. If they can get on the right side of the tarriff barrier with a 100% owned factory, they're golden.

It would be nice if we could get confirmation from vinvin, who read and cited the specific Chinese notice which stated that 100% foreign owned auto factories were going to be allowed, as to whether it authorizes them in parts of Shanghai which are inside the tariff barrier (not subject to tariffs when sold in China).

 

[Cobbler]

4 years untill GF3 is at 10k Cars/week?

 

[Todd Burch]

I made a graphic depicting today's price action so far:

 

[Muaddid]

4 years to get to max production rate... seems slow for Tesla... unless its 5k for model 3 in 2 years and then 5k for model Y 2 years later ?
Either way, doesn't fit Elon's MO to give realistic time tables...

 

[defc0n]

Good news, sure, but I don't see how this is short burn material. It is barely anything we didn't already know. Now the question is do I wait for more news soon...

 

[mutle]

The volume traded in recent days is crazy. Right now both AAPL and TSLA are at a little under 4 million shares traded, but the share price of TSLA is actually higher, so more money traded in TSLA than AAPL so far today, while AAPL market cap is almost 20x TSLA.

 

[Boomer19]

4 years to get to max production rate... seems slow for Tesla... unless its 5k for model 3 in 2 years and then 5k for model Y 2 years later ?
Either way, doesn't fit Elon's MO to give realistic time tables...

let’s have them beat timeline for once

 

[SteveG3]

I bet Elon really thought the news of hitting 5000/week combined with the China gigafactory news one week after would really cause a short squeeze, but he really did underestimate the power of the shorts. This is probably all the good news there is before the quarter.

He’s in Beijing for a couple of days after Shanghai. Perhaps some new developments to be announced.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

We've been hearing about Tesla being a risky bet for 8 years now...

Those with shorts and other critics on TV... you agree, it makes sense for it to be heavily about ulterior motives rather than simply intellectually honest skepticism. That’s precisely what many of us have been saying.

The motives are speculative consideration, the falsehoods and gross distortions are obvious to anyone with moderate knowledge of Tesla.

I understand that, but reading this thread (and indeed much of this forum) I see many people have an allergic reaction to anything remotely negative said about Tesla. That's unhealthy.

No one who feels so strongly about Tesla or Musk that they feel the need to defend them at every turn, should invest in Tesla. They're too emotionally attached and will likely make bad decisions because of it.

 

[Todd Burch]

Good news, sure, but I don't see how this is short burn material. It is barely anything we didn't already know. Now the question is do I wait for more news soon...

Agree. Good news but not burny.

At this point I'm giving up hope of a quick short burn and will settle for a longer, more painful, excruciating burn instead. I feel that's more appropriate anyway.

 

[Richgoogol]

He’s in Beijing for a couple of days after Shanghai. Perhaps some new developments to be announced.

Interesting, did not know that. Hopefully there are some good news, maybe BEV incentive for Teslas. Anyways, I sincerely hope Chanos turns out like how Bill Ackman handled Herbalife where he is forced to buy back his short position and swallow his pride.

 

[Unpilot]

I think the emotional attachment crosses beyond the company and into the health of the planet.
If you believe that this company is leading the rest of the industry to cleaner energy then maybe you feel like putting your money were your heart is.

So yes some make investment's based on emotion's ...I would wager most do.

 

[SteveG3]

I understand that, but reading this thread (and indeed much of this forum) I see many people have an allergic reaction to anything remotely negative said about Tesla. That's unhealthy.

No one who feels so strongly about Tesla or Musk that they feel the need to defend them at every turn, should invest in Tesla. They're too emotionally attached and will likely make bad decisions because of it.

you’ve heard the phrase “Elon time”?

this place is not allergic to criticism of Elon or Tesla (there are plenty of other examples). patience is low, however, re the enormous flow of falsehoods and gross distortions attempting to talk down Tesla in the media. Jesse’s thread re Fairfax and Chanos probably has that patience at an all time low.

finally, it’s quite common for people to have a strong reaction to what feels like “gas lighting”... I think for the most part that’s where the intensity of the reaction originates, more so than feelings specifically about Musk or Tesla.

 

[ZsoZso]

Agree. Good news but not burny.

At this point I'm giving up hope of a quick short burn and will settle for a longer, more painful, excruciating burn instead. I feel that's more appropriate anyway.

Indeed, I am also totally fine with just a few dollars ($2-$5) rise every trading day for the rest of the year...

 

[Boomer19]

I understand that, but reading this thread (and indeed much of this forum) I see many people have an allergic reaction to anything remotely negative said about Tesla. That's unhealthy.

No one who feels so strongly about Tesla or Musk that they feel the need to defend them at every turn, should invest in Tesla. They're too emotionally attached and will likely make bad decisions because of it.

i agree trading with emotion no good!
i’m sure some here do it (both directions). but as i’ve also said, there’s some pretty smart people here too

 

[Tslynk67]

i agree trading with emotion no good!
i’m sure some here do it (both directions). but as i’ve also said, there’s some pretty smart people here too

My emotion was joy at being able to buy a good amount in Feb 2016, smugness watching it double and now expectation at is growing 10x+ from here in the net 5-10 years.

I like these emotions.

 

[winfield100]

let’s have them beat timeline for once

time dilation due to close to light speed perhaps

 

[Tslynk67]

Where are you folks getting "4 years" from? Electric states: The automaker confirmed the deal and said that it plans to start construction “in the near future” for the first cars to roll off the line in “2 years.”

And I think this will be beaten, given the steep learning-curve they've been through in the last couple of years.

No doubts all sorts of permits-and-*sugar* to get through that will take time, otherwise they'd just pitch a tent and have it spitting out M3's by the end of August

Edit: Tesla say 2-3 years to get to 500k

Tesla goes big in China with Shanghai plant

 

[Unpilot]

I can't imagine the permits and what not will be as much of a hurdle in China as they are in California!

 

[Muaddid]

Where are you folks getting "4 years" from? Electric states: The automaker confirmed the deal and said that it plans to start construction “in the near future” for the first cars to roll off the line in “2 years.”

From the same Eletreck article :
"We expect construction to begin in the near future after we get all the necessary approvals and permits. From there, it will take roughly two years until we start producing vehicles and then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per year for Chinese customers".